Super Bowl Same Game Parlay: Combining Game Tape, Correlations

Written By Brett Gibbons on February 11, 2022 - Last Updated on February 13, 2022
Super Bowl same game parlay

Using game tape and correlation can give bettors a leg up at assembling a Super Bowl same game parlay instead of blindly tailing the thousands posted on social media. Combine that with risk-free offers, and at worst, you’ll get a free bet back.

The Cincinnati Bengals are in the Super Bowl thanks to a vertical passing attack and a very confident Joe Burrow. We know the team isn’t invincible, but when they fire on all cylinders, it’s tough to put the brakes on. Can the Los Angeles Rams’ defense put a lid on the vertical passing game?

FanDuel Sportsbook offers Super Bowl same game parlay options, and that’s where we’ll be looking for our odds, as their Same Game Parlay machine tends to offer better prices than the DraftKings version.

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Super Bowl Same Game Parlay: Scheme Breakdown

How the Bengals offense works

We all know Ja’Marr Chase is a freak and he’s a big reason as to why the Bengals can sling the ball all over the field. But how exactly are Burrow and Cincinnati getting him the football so effectively?

Take a look at Chase’s routes run with NFL Next Gen Stats. He runs “go routes” (or nine routes, fly routes, verticals, etc.) in a healthy majority of his snaps. Burrow is able to take a three-step drop (opposed to seven or more step drops by guys like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen) and fire a jump ball up to Chase. Because of his talent, this results in a lot of completions and a lot of contested catches.

It really is that simple.

When the Bengals offense does not work

Highlighted no better than in the AFC Divisional Round against the Tennessee Titans, the Bengals’ offensive line is a mess. In order to avoid another nine-sack outing, the Bengals rely on Chase to allow Burrow to be a one-read quarterback. While that sounds like a knock, it’s not. In college, Burrow showed the ability to process coverages and progress through his reads. But with a faulty offensive line, the system is designed to be one-read.

In that game, the Titans floated safeties over the top to prevent one-on-one jump ball situations with Chase. Corner Jackrabbit Jenkins was physical at the line of scrimmage, pressed, and jammed Chase at the line without fear of being beat deep because he had rotational help.

This forced Burrow to pivot to a second read which, even without blitzing, usually resulted in a sack. This season, Burrow had the eighth-least time in the pocked (2.3 seconds) and was pressured the most out of any player in the bottom third of that metric. If the first quick read isn’t there, Burrow’s in trouble.

That seems easy enough on paper, but the Bengals also force teams into not being able to float safeties over. For example, running trips to the wide side of the field causes Cover 2 to fail because you have three potential receivers on one safety covering the wider part of the field. It just doesn’t work. That forces teams into match-quarters and Cover 5 (known widely in the Madden franchise as Cover 2 Man) and leaves Chase– who is usually the long receiver on the back side– to get into a one-on-one situation.

Disguising shells and coverages is what keeps the Bengals honest and Burrow guessing. Take away the first quick read and the pocket usually dissolves around him.

Why this should work for the Rams

First and foremost, the personnel on defense is a huge mismatch for the Bengals. With Aaron DonaldVon Miller, and Leonard Floyd up front, that’s already going to force Burrow to be the one-read quarterback. The Bengals offensive line on paper doesn’t match up.

The Rams also employ one of the most physical and talented corners in the NFL, All-Pro Jalen Ramsey. Getting Ramsey up on the line of scrimmage and shadowing Chase is likely in the cards. While Chase is a very good receiver, he was knocked off his route plenty of times against Jenkins and the Titans secondary. Disrupting the timing on those go routes even just for a half second by knocking him off his route gives the front seven time to get home.

Against another vertical offense, the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams ran a lot of rotational Cover 3. Often lining up in two-high shells (two safeties deep), they would bail Ramsey into a three-high look. This led to them to finishing 10th in average depth of target allowed this season (7.6).

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Where weakness may lie in the Rams defense

Of course, the Rams didn’t finish as the league’s number-one passing defense and they did allow big plays. For example, Ramsey was beaten by Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ receiver Mike Evans in the NFC Divisional Round for a huge touchdown. While the route was a bit longer-developing, isolating Evans on a backside one-on-one is exactly what the Bengals want to do with Chase.

While defensive coordinator Raheem Morris surely won’t make that same mistake again after seeing that Buccaneers’ touchdown, you can only scheme so much.

On the season, Los Angeles generated the eighth-least amount of pressure (22.6%). Once Miller was added to the team, pressure began to ramp up. While that number may scare some, keep in mind that the Titans (24%) were just 21st in that metric.

Cover 5 and Cover 3 bail are susceptible to certain routes down the field. Corner routes (or flags, or sevens, etc.) can break these coverages by isolating the underneath coverage man and breaking the route off ahead of the high safety. However, this does require a half-second more of pocket time, which the Bengals may not have.

Super Bowl Same Game Parlay Strategy

Correlating your same game parlay is usually imperative in increasing your chances to win. Typically teams that lose either give up a bunch of yards or don’t pick up many yards themselves (surprise!).

Coincidentally, there were seven instances (out of 12 wins, 58.3%) this season in which the Bengals won and Burrow threw for under his current passing yards prop, 276.5 (U-114). In six losses this season, Burrow broke 276.5 passing yards four times (66.7%). The simple explanation is that, when the Bengals are behind, Burrow throws the football.

Based on the above game theory, the first leg of the Super Bowl same game parlay is the Los Angeles Rams moneyline (-198 as of Monday, Feb. 7). Because I anticipate the Rams leading this game, I believe Burrow will throw a lot. The -114 juice on over Burrow’s passing yards (276.5, an implied 53.27% win) is lower than the sample size win rate this year (66.7%). The second leg of the same game parlay is Joe Burrow OVER 276.5 passing yards.

My Super Bowl LVI Same Game Parlay:

  • L.A. Rams ML 
  • Burrow Over 276.5 passing yards
  • +192 odds at FanDuel as of Monday, Feb. 7

Note: Keep an eye on Chase’s receiving total, set at 78.5 yards (O-114). While he’s broken the mark in four of the last six games, he surpassed 78.5 yards just once in losses this season. However, the number was a little too low to comfortably bet under his prop, so I left him off the ticket.

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons