What are the odds we see a safety scored in Super Bowl 57? I don’t just mean at sportsbooks. That would make this a very short answer: Yes +1000, No -2500. I mean, what is the likelihood that we see a safety scored in Super Bowl 57? Should you consider betting Yes +1000? What is the likelihood of a safety being scored in any Super Bowl? Let’s dive into the research.
Super Bowl 57 Safety Odds
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Safety Scoring In Previous Super Bowls
A safety is scored in roughly one out of every 14 games (7.14%) and in 2022, we saw 11 safeties scored in 272 games (4.37%). In Super Bowls, that number rises dramatically. Nine of 56 total Super Bowls featured a safety, or in about 16.1% of the games.
The last time we saw a safety in the Super Bowl came nine years ago when Peyton Manning had the ball snapped over his head for a first-score, first-play safety. In fact, that was the third Super Bowl in a row with a safety. In 2013, the Ravens took an intentional safety up five to preserve their win. The year before, Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding in his own end zone on the Patriots opening possession.
OK– so if it’s between two and four times more likely to happen in a Super Bowl, and the odds imply a 9.1% success rate, blindly betting Yes +1000 would have +EV over your lifetime, right? So far, I suppose.
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Safety Opportunities
In order for this play to even have a chance, a team has to be backed up deep in their own territory. With heavily-enforced forward progress rules that always give the benefit of the doubt to offensive players, rarely are safeties a player being dragged down with the ball inside his own end zone. Proof of concept above– you have to dive back to 1991 to find the last time a player was truly tackled down in his own end zone.
Chiefs tackle Andrew Wylie is the most penalized tackle in the NFL. So if we’re looking for a penalty to give us the safety, the Chiefs statistically are more likely to get called for it. However, just 11 Chiefs drives started inside their own 10-yard line. Zero began inside their own five. Of those 11, 10 resulted in punts and one ended the half.
Eagles punter Brett Kern also downed the fewest punts inside opposing 20-yard lines (four).
The Eagles also began 11 drives this year inside their own 10-yard line. Those drives resulted in much more chaotic, sometimes disastrous outcomes. One included a safety: Week 3 against the Commanders.
Chiefs punter Tommy Townsend is one of the best in the NFL, downing 29 punts inside the opposing 20-yard line. So on this front, the Eagles are more likely to face a situation where a safety could occur.
In 386 total drives this season and postseason for these two teams, two safeties resulted (0.52%) and only one of the teams took it.
Combine Safety Odds With FanDuel SGP Odds
FanDuel hosts betting lines for safety props that fans can combine into same game parlays. These betting lines increase the potential payout fans will gain by also increasing the risk. Fans can add safety odds to other betting lines like QB player props, game props, and the moneyline for either team. This is a way to turn Super Bowl betting into a bigger affair with more options for players. FanDuel’s patented same-game parlay odds are some of the best on the market. Win big betting on safety props at FanDuel sportsbook.
Every Safety Scored In Super Bowl History
- XLVIII (2014): Ball snapped over Peyton Manning’s head, recovered and downed by Broncos inside their own end zone vs. Seahawks. First scoring play.
- XVLII (2013): Intentional safety taken by Ravens vs. 49ers on a punt to preserve win. Last scoring play.
- XVLI (2012): Tom Brady intentional grounding inside own end zone vs. Giants. First scoring play.
- XLIII (2009): Holding called on Steelers inside own end zone vs. Cardinals.
- XXV (1991): Giants QB Jeff Hostetler sacked in own end zone vs. Bills.
- XXI (1987): John Elway sacked in own end zone vs. Giants.
- XX (1986): Patriots QB Steve Grogan sacked in own end zone vs. Bears. Last scoring play.
- X (1976): Steelers blocked punt out of back of the end zone vs. Cowboys.
Teams that score the safety are 6-2 outright, with the Ravens intentionally taking the safety being a notable exception. Four of the nine safeties were either the first or last scoring play, including each of the last three. Zero times has the safety been on a rushing play.
Interestingly, the Giants have been to four Super Bowls, three of which featured safeties.
Should You Bet On There To Be A Safety In Super Bowl 57?
Safeties are not only extremely unlikely to happen, but are getting less likely as the years progress. Betting on there to be a safety in Super Bowl 57 is banking on multiple unlikely events coming together:
- Either team to be backed up inside their own 10 yard line (a combined 5.7% this season)
- There to be a penalty or sack while either QB is inside their own end zone OR
- A special teams gaffe
Recent history suggests that safeties are more likely to occur early in the game, with two of the last three safeties being the first score of the game. A combination of nerves and potentially conservative coaching leading to more punts inside the opponent’s territory may be deciding factors.
Safety First Score Odds
Toggle between team-specific safeties with the tabs below.
If you’re laying pizza money down on a safety to happen for the entertainment factor, I’d recommend taking a shot on a safety to be the first scoring play of the game instead. Both are statistically unlikely, but recent rule changes and team tendencies suggest that a first-score safety is as likely to happen as any kind of safety.
No matter how you dice it, betting on a Super Bowl safety is a dart throw. It’s a scoring play cemented in luck with almost no good way to properly handicap. For that reason, I’d never treat it more than a lottery ticket. Throw a fraction unit on it for entertainment and rejoice if it hits.
