Super Bowl PrizePicks: Going “Less Than” For Mahomes Passing Yards Has Value
Just as NFL betting season draws to a close with Super Bowl odds, so does the NFL PrizePicks season. Users have one final chance to pick whether NFL stars will accumulate more or less than their projected stats. From passing yards to touchdowns to sacks, PrizePicks has plenty of options for Super Bowl picks.
TheLines has compiled stats for PrizePicks Super Bowl picks, including off-market projections and a notable “sale” projection on Patrick Mahomes props.
Super Bowl PrizePicks: Mahomes Less Than 264.5 Passing Yards
The sale plays are one thing to consider when looking at PrizePicks during the Super Bowl. The team has rolled out just one for Super Bowl 58: Patrick Mahomes More Than 0.5 passing yards.
Since Mahomes’ passing prop sits at , users can be pretty sure they’ve got a freebie on this one.
Speaking of Mahomes’ passing yards, that represents one of two off-market stat projections currently offered on Super Bowl PrizePicks. Less Than 264.5 should have some value for PrizePicks players since Mahomes’ current market number sits at 260.5 as of Friday afternoon. Most advanced metrics have the 49ers pass defense as one of the strongest in the NFL, with Success Rate, EPA/play and DVOA rankings all in the top seven.
Aiyuk Less Than 64.5 Receiving Yards
Users can find another off-market projection in the receiving yards section. 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk has a PrizePicks projection of 64.5. Again, Less Than 64.5 should have quite a bit of value since Aiyuk’s market number is down to 59.5.
The Chiefs have been tremendous against WR1s this season on the backs of Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed. Superstars like Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson have already felt the wrath of this unit, and Aiyuk figures to have a long day ahead of him.
My Top Super Bowl PrizePick: Marquez Valdes-Scantling More Than 19.5 Receiving Yards
Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a very modest receiving projection at 19.5 yards.
However, the oft-derided deep threat has raised his game in the playoffs, with 100 yards over his past two contests. He caught a 32-yard pass both times, giving him the distinct possibility of surpassing his projection with just one reception.
Valdes-Scantling played 83% of the snaps against Baltimore, well above his season number. As other receivers like Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman have fallen by the wayside due to injury and ineffectiveness, Valdes-Scantling has risen to the moment.
Furthermore, the 49ers’ defense is vulnerable outside and down the field, attacking the defensive backs aside from Charvarius Ward. The Chiefs exposed that in a big way last season with a heavy focus on their outside receivers in the 44-23 win. Valdes-Scantling went for 111 yards, while fellow wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 124 in that game.
The middle of the field is generally a no-fly zone for opposing offenses against the 49ers, and the Chiefs will go into the Super Bowl well aware of this. Expect Valdes-Scantling to have a decent role again, and this low Super Bowl PrizePicks projection should be gettable.
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