Not too surprisingly, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs sit atop opening 2024 Super Bowl odds, after DraftKings Sportsbooks released futures ahead of the Divisional round of the playoffs. This time around the Bills and Chiefs are co-favorites at +550. Kansas City and Buffalo opened 2023 Super Bowl odds at +700 and +800, respectively.
Even shorter futures at open for the top two means, perhaps, better value on the rest of the teams on the board. That is if you believe they are capable of upward mobility and poised to take another step forward in during the 2023 season. Click on any of the odds below to bet now. Odds are as of Jan. 20, 2023. Below, I’ll share my seven biggest takeaways from the opening odds.
Opening 2024 Super Bowl Odds
2024 Super Bowl Futures
7 Takeaways From 2024 Super Bowl Odds
1. Don’t Bet The Favorites This Early
So much can happen between now and Super Bowl 58. We’re talking about more than 365 days from now, for goodness sakes. With the Chiefs and Bills even shorter prices than where they opened in Super Bowl 57 odds, it’s just unwise to tie up your money for so long. With Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes also on their second contracts, it becomes harder to keep a deep roster and high-priced talent around them.
Buy low spots will often present themselves midseason as well. The Chiefs went from +550 one week to +750 the next just this season.
2. Lock In On The NFC
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert. The AFC is loaded with elite young quarterbacks. It is a gauntlet in this era just to reach the Super Bowl, and we haven’t even mentioned a former NFL MVP in Lamar Jackson or another up-and-comer in Trevor Lawrence. Who knows? Maybe even Russell Wilson and Deshawn Watson will remember how to play QB again.
The point is every single NFC team has double-digit odds with the Bills and Chiefs occupying 30% of the implied probability in the odds. So if you have the hunger to throw a futures ticket in your account for opening 2024 Super Bowl odds, look to the NFC.
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3. Beware The QB Carousel
Here is a list of teams that could or likely will have a different starting quarterback next season. Beware betting these teams, as it’s anybody’s guess if a change in QB would be an upgrade:
- Packers (although I’ll believe it when I see it)
- Cardinals (Kyler Murray late-season ACL)
4. Opening 2024 Super Bowl Odds A Preview Of Division Futures
The hierarchy of teams in the same division in these futures should provide a clue as to what odds to win their divisions will look like. Some of the more interesting divisions to monitor include the NFC North and NFC South.
In the NFC North, the Lions have overtaken the Vikings as the second choice from the division in Super Bowl futures, and at +3500, Detroit is only slightly behind the Packers at +3000.
In the NFC South, will Tom Brady be the quarterback of the Buccaneers? If not, Tampa Bay at +3500 may be entirely too high and present opportunity in pinpointing its chief rival to win the division. The Saints, Panthers and Falcons all still sit behind the Bucs.
5. No Respect For The Seahawks
Despite outperforming all expectations and making the playoffs, Seattle still opens as one of the bottom five teams in these futures. Considering the Seahawks are in the NFC, have a top-five pick and another first-round selection in the NFL Draft, and possess the sixth-most salary cap space this offseason to further improve the roster, I’m not sure +8000 properly reflects the potential for more upward mobility in the Pacific Northwest.
I don’t know about Super Bowl futures, but all their other futures should have attractive prices if they are still being rated as a bottom-five tea in the market.
6. The Cardinals Are In A World Of Hurt
Congratulations on firing Kliff Kingsbury and still having to pay him a boatload of cash. Now what? Your franchise quarterback can’t stay healthy and is likely out for at least half of next season. You have already publicly state you are looking to trade star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The defense was brutal, and J.J. Watt is retiring.
What top-tier head coaching candidate is going to want this job? It’s hard to argue having Arizona at the bottom of the odds with Houston. It looks like a lost season in the desert already.
7. The Teams I’d Consider Betting
I have not bet on any of these futures yet, because it’s better to wait for other sportsbooks to open their opening 2024 Super Bowl odds and then shop for the best possible price to maximize potential payout. However there are a few teams I’m eyeing. Again, I will emphasize No. 2 above, as for the second year in a row, I’m focusing on the NFC and an easier path to the Big Game.
Detroit Lions: Do not forget how dangerous this Lions team was to end the season. Detroit won eight of its last 10 games, narrowly missing the playoffs. From Week 10 onward, the roar was restored with the No. 2 offense by EPA in that span, trailing only the Chiefs. By dropback EPA, Jared Goff was actually better than Patrick Mahomes for the top spot. Some reinforcements on defense this offseason could make this a very interesting longshot. Most importantly, the Lions will have head coach and offensive coordinator continuity into next season.
New York Giants: The moment Big Blue hired Brian Daboll, I had this offseason circled as to when I wanted to pounce on a potential big number to make a run this season. Despite the first-season success, I always thought winning the NFC right away was a bit ambitious with what he inherited on the roster. However, some strong pieces are already in place on the defensive front, and Daboll’s mastermind has already resurrected another offense and QB’s career, this time with Daniel Jones. Armed with the third-most salary cap space in the NFL this offseason, the Giants could continue its upward trajectory and make things even more interesting in the NFC East.
Green Bay Packers: If Aaron Rodgers is back, I have a hard time seeing why this should be +3000. Love him or hate him, he is still a supreme talent at the most important position when healthy. Green Bay was already getting market respect again towards the end of the season before blowing it against Detroit in Week 18.
Thanks for reading and best of luck with all your bets.