Super Bowl Odds Movement Tracker Tool: Find Biggest Risers & Fallers

Roughly a quarter of the season (pending Monday Night Football) is in the books. A lot of uncertainty still remains, as sample sizes remain small, but some early trends have started to become reflected in Super Bowl odds movement. Let’s take a look at some early risers and fallers.

Bettors should evaluate this Super Bowl odds movement with a critical eye and use it to make informed buy decisions. Scroll to the bottom for a full list of odds from betting apps in your area.

Super Bowl Odds Movement: Animated Graph

Browse how each team’s futures have shifted after the first month of the season.

Teams With Positive Super Bowl Odds Movement

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle was among the darlings of the NFL in the preseason, and bettors who backed them at long prices were thrilled to see them start 3-0.

They came back to earth on Monday Night Football as the Lions offense ran roughshod over them. Detroit piled up 7.8 YPP and scored 42 points, exposing the possibility that the Seahawks’ start was largely a product of an extremely soft schedule. With three games in the next six weeks against the 49ers and Bills, they’re going to have a chance to prove otherwise.

Geno Smith ranks eighth in the league in EPA+CPOE composite, and Kenneth Walker III looked spry again in his return from injury. So, there isn’t much to worry about on offense as long as the tackle play remains acceptable.

The questions marks are all on defense, where the Seahawks got trucked last year, finishing near the bottom of almost all of the metrics. New coach Mike Macdonald’s been charged with fixing that, and he’ll hope Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II return quickly to help him.

New Orleans Saints

It looked like the Saints were off to a blazing start after they clobbered the Panthers and Cowboys in the first two games. The 91 collective points they scored represented acts of mercy, as they could have pushed toward 60 if they weren’t killing the clock in each second half.

Things ground to a halt a bit in the third game against the Eagles, but the offense bounced back in Week 4. Unfortunately, the Saints allowed a pair of defensive touchdowns, and the Falcons nailed a 58-yarder as time expired.

Still, the Saints rank fifth in EPA/play. That counts as a shocker considering expectations coming in, and the fact that offense is much more predictive of future success than defense bodes well for the Saints going forward.

After three weeks, an offensive line widely expected to be among the league’s worst ranked top 10 in both ESPN win rate metrics.

New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system is cooking.

Tampa Bay being stronger than expected is an early obstacle. They are a game up on the Saints and have played a tougher schedule.

Still, the net effect of the early start has been that the Saints have had their odds cut by more than half. They closed +10000 and are down to .

Minnesota Vikings

Perhaps no team has been a bigger surprise than the Vikings. NFL win totals had them finishing last in the division. The pessimism only increased when presumed eventual starter J.J. McCarthy was lost for the year with a knee injury.

Well, Sam Darnold has taken the reins and instantly led the team to a 4-0 record. Not just any 4-0 record either, as the Vikings have thumped presumed Super Bowl contenders San Francisco and Houston.

They followed that up with a huge divisional win on the road in Green Bay. By EPA/play, Vikings have the No. 2 defense and the No. 7 offense. That probably undersells them, considering the schedule they’ve played.

Little doubt exists about Brian Flores’ defense. Last year, they finished eighth in defense DVOA despite have a talent level that didn’t excite anyone going into the season. They’ve boosted the talent level with CB Stephon Gilmore, EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel, and LB Blake Cashman.

The main question is whether the offense can keep this up. The playmakers are certainly there. Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, and Justin Jefferson (with T.J. Hockenson due back soon) make for a fearsome group.

The Darnold part of the equation remains up in the air. He has historically been prone to sacks and turnovers, and there have been some head-scratchers already. But coach Kevin O’Connell has shown himself to be a bit of a QB whisperer, so perhaps he can keep working his magic.

Once +8000, the Vikings now have realistic Super Bowl odds at .

Teams With Negative Super Bowl Odds Movement

L.A. Rams

The Rams have fallen to the bottom of the NFC West, vindicating a betting market that was quite bearish on the 2023 playoff participants.

It’s hard to say whether that had any merit. Simply put, the Rams have suffered an incredible spate of injuries to their offense.

The offensive line has been a revolving door of injuries. At one point, four of their starters missed a game, resulting in a blowout loss to the Cardinals. Top WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are out and don’t appear to be coming back any time soon. Nacua will reportedly miss at least another month.

At 1-3 with the third-hardest schedule per Tankathon, the Rams are looking at long odds to even make the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Perhaps no team has had a more disappointing start to 2024 than the Jaguars.

Most frustratingly, the Jags could have easily won the game in three of their four losses. The BIlls thumped them, sure. But they soundly outgained the Browns, blew a win over the Dolphins mainly due to a costly fumble in the red zone, and failed to score from the 1 when they could have gone up two scores in the fourth against Houston.

Now, they’re buried, looking up at even the Titans in the division.

The schedule is manageable, but the damage has most likely been done. Doug Pederson is probably coaching for his job, and he opted to throw the players under the bus after the team snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again in Week 4.

This could get ugly.

Cleveland Browns

Another 2023 playoff team, the Browns have also had a frustrating go.

The connection between Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper has been non-existent. If Watson throws a good ball, Cooper drops it. If Cooper gets open, Watson either misses him or takes a sack. The end results: a hideous 35% Success Rate targeting Cooper.

Offensive line injuries have also plagued this team. Tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. have been unable to get healthy. That has only made the Watson issue more glaring.

The Browns are in a difficult spot because they play in the AFC North, and they still have all of their divisional games remaining. Their schedule strength is seventh-toughest, and they already squandered winnable games against the Giants and Raiders.

In a loaded AFC, it’s difficult to imagine them recovering.

Best Super Bowl Odds

Find the best odds on Super Bowl futures below from NFL betting sites in your area.