The matchup is set for the Big Game on Feb. 3.
The two starting quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Jared Goff, are the clear favorites to win the 2019 Super Bowl MVP award. The New England Patriots were quickly bet up to a 2.5-point favorite over the Los Angeles Rams and the total is a Super Bowl record-high 57 points as of Thursday.
A quarterback has won the MVP award 29 times in 52 Super Bowls, including seven times in the last nine years.
But before you award Brady the MVP, know that the team that is the underdog in the Super Bowl has won the game six times in the last seven years.
All eight Super Bowls involving QB Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick have been decided by one score. Brady has averaged 403 passing yards and a QB rating of 103.4 over his last three Super Bowl appearances. Jared Goff makes his first Super Bowl appearance in his third season at the Rams quarterback.
Super Bowl MVP Odds at New Jersey Sportsbooks
(Odds updated 1/31/19)
|QB Tom Brady (NE)||+110||-105||+115|
|QB Jared Goff (LA)||+200||+200||+190|
|RB Todd Gurley (LA)||+1400||+1600||+1600|
|DT Aaron Donald (LA)||+1400||+1800||+1600|
|RB Sony Michel (NE)||+1600||+1800||+1600|
|RB CJ Anderson (LA)||+2200||+1600||+3000|
|WR Julian Edelman (NE)||+2800||+4000||+3500|
|RB James White (NE)||+2800||+2000||+2500|
|WR Brandin Cooks (LA)||+3300||+4000||+5000|
|TE Rob Gronkowski (NE)||+4000||+5000||+5000|
|WR Robert Woods (LA)||+4000||+4000||+5000|
|RB Rex Burkhead (NE)||+6600||+6000||+8000|
|WR Josh Reynolds (LA)||+6600||+6000||+10000|
|K Greg Zuerlein (LA)||+8000||+10000||25000|
|DT Ndamukong Suh (LA)||+8000||+6000||+7000|
|LB Dante Fowler (LA)||+8000||+6600||+10000|
|LB Kyle Van Noy (NE)||+10000||+10000||+10000|
|LB Dont'a Hightower (NE)||+15000||+15000||+15000|
|FB James Develin (NE)||+20000||+10000||+10000|
Super Bowl MVP value?
The value in the 2019 Super Bowl LIII might be with the running backs or wide receivers. With a high-scoring game projected, the chances are better that those position players could have more yards and score multiple touchdowns.
See Patriots running back Sony Michel in the AFC Championship win when he rushed 29 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Michel also had 24 carries for 129 yards and three touchdowns against the Chargers in the divisional round. Those numbers would be tough to ignore as MVP in the Super Bowl.
James White had 15 receptions for 97 yards in New England’s win over the Chargers. That many touches and catches combined with two to three touchdowns — especially if he breaks a long screen pass for a touchdown — would position him for strong consideration as MVP.
In the Patriots’ 2017 Super Bowl overtime win over the Falcons 34-28, many people felt White should have won MVP.
Despite having 29 rushing yards and two touchdowns, plus 14 receptions for 110 yards and another TD, White failed to earn the MVP award. Brady passed for 466 yards playing from behind to steal the game and MVP honors. Still, the value is with the position players including the Rams running back combo or wide receivers.
For the Rams, a real comeback story is running back CJ Anderson, who was signed by the Rams off the street in December and promptly rushed for 167 and 132 yards in the final two regular season games scoring a touchdown each game. In the playoff game against Dallas, he added 123 rushing yards and two more touchdowns.
Last week against the Saints, Anderson had just 44 yards rushing, but that was against a much stronger run defense than the Patriots. Anderson could get a bulk of the rushing load if Todd Gurley is not fully healthy.
There seems to be something not quite right with Gurley after playing few than 50 percent of the snaps against the Saints in the NFC Championship. His knee inflammation is clearly acting up, and Gurley had a turnover and just four carries for 10 rushing yards against the Saints after returning to the lineup the previous playoff game against Dallas and rushing for 115 yards and one touchdown.
If the Rams score into the 30s, which is realistic, then either Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks have a solid shot to have big receiving games, providing MVP value much better than Goff. Woods is Goff’s favorite target and led the team in pass targets in both of the Rams playoff wins. Between 2005-09, three wide receivers won Super Bowl MVP honors.
Two of the past five Super Bowl MVPs have been defensive players, but both those players were on supremely dominant defensive teams when the winning teams shut down the opponent to 10 points or less. That’s very unlikely in the 2019 Super Bowl.
History of Super Bowl MVP winners (since 2000)
|2018||Philadelphia vs New England||Eagles 41-33||QB Nick Foles (PHI)|
|2017||New England vs Atlanta||Patriots 34-28||QB Tom Brady (NE)|
|2016||Denver vs Carolina||Broncos 24-10||LB Von Miller (DEN)|
|2015||New England vs Seattle||Patriots 28-24||QB Tom Brady (NE)|
|2014||Seattle vs Denver||Seahawks 43-8||LB Malcolm Smith (SEA)|
|2013||Baltimore vs San Francisco||Ravens 34-31||QB Joe Flacco (BAL)|
|2012||NY Giants vs New England||Giants 17-14||QB Eli Manning (NYG)|
|2011||Green Bay vs Pittsburgh||Packers 31-25||QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)|
|2010||New Orleans vs Indianapolis||Saints 31-17||QB Drew Brees (NO)|
|2009||Pittsburgh vs Arizona||Steelers 27-23||WR Santonio Holmes (PIT)|
|2008||NY Giants vs New England||Giants 17-14||QB Eli Manning (NYG)|
|2007||Indianapolis vs Chicago||Colts 29-17||QB Peyton Manning (IND)|
|2006||Pittsburgh vs Seattle||Steelers 21-10||WR Hines Ward (PIT)|
|2005||New England vs Philadelphia||Patriots 24-21||WR Deion Branch (NE)|
|2004||New England vs Carolina||Patriots 32-29||QB Tom Brady (NE)|
|2003||Tampa Bay vs Oakland||Buccaneers 48-21||S Dexter Jackson (TB)|
|2002||New England vs St. Louis||Patriots 20-17||QB Tom Brady (NE)|
|2001||Baltimore vs NY Giants||Ravens 34-7||LB Ray Lewis (BAL)|
|2000||St. Louis vs Tennessee||Rams 23-16||QB Kurt Warner (STL)|