Tom Brady, Jared Goff Are Heavy Betting Favorites To Win 2019 Super Bowl MVP

Posted By FairwayJay on January 30, 2019 - Last Updated on April 14, 2019
Super Bowl MVP

The matchup is set for the Big Game on Feb. 3.

The two starting quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Jared Goff, are the clear favorites to win the 2019 Super Bowl MVP award. The New England Patriots were quickly bet up to a 2.5-point favorite over the Los Angeles Rams and the total is a Super Bowl record-high 57 points as of Thursday.

A quarterback has won the MVP award 29 times in 52 Super Bowls, including seven times in the last nine years.

But before you award Brady the MVP, know that the team that is the underdog in the Super Bowl has won the game six times in the last seven years.

All eight Super Bowls involving QB Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick have been decided by one score. Brady has averaged 403 passing yards and a QB rating of 103.4 over his last three Super Bowl appearances. Jared Goff makes his first Super Bowl appearance in his third season at the Rams quarterback.

Super Bowl MVP Odds at New Jersey Sportsbooks

(Odds updated 1/31/19)

QB Tom Brady (NE)+110-105+115
QB Jared Goff (LA)+200+200+190
RB Todd Gurley (LA)+1400+1600+1600
DT Aaron Donald (LA)+1400+1800+1600
RB Sony Michel (NE)+1600+1800+1600
RB CJ Anderson (LA)+2200+1600+3000
WR Julian Edelman (NE)+2800+4000+3500
RB James White (NE)+2800+2000+2500
WR Brandin Cooks (LA)+3300+4000+5000
TE Rob Gronkowski (NE)+4000+5000+5000
WR Robert Woods (LA)+4000+4000+5000
RB Rex Burkhead (NE)+6600+6000+8000
WR Josh Reynolds (LA)+6600+6000+10000
K Greg Zuerlein (LA)+8000+1000025000
DT Ndamukong Suh (LA)+8000+6000+7000
LB Dante Fowler (LA)+8000+6600+10000
LB Kyle Van Noy (NE)+10000+10000+10000
LB Dont'a Hightower (NE)+15000+15000+15000
FB James Develin (NE)+20000+10000+10000

Super Bowl MVP value?

The value in the 2019 Super Bowl LIII might be with the running backs or wide receivers. With a high-scoring game projected, the chances are better that those position players could have more yards and score multiple touchdowns.

See Patriots running back Sony Michel in the AFC Championship win when he rushed 29 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Michel also had 24 carries for 129 yards and three touchdowns against the Chargers in the divisional round. Those numbers would be tough to ignore as MVP in the Super Bowl.

James White had 15 receptions for 97 yards in New England’s win over the Chargers. That many touches and catches combined with two to three touchdowns — especially if he breaks a long screen pass for a touchdown — would position him for strong consideration as MVP.

In the Patriots’ 2017 Super Bowl overtime win over the Falcons 34-28, many people felt White should have won MVP.

Despite having 29 rushing yards and two touchdowns, plus 14 receptions for 110 yards and another TD, White failed to earn the MVP award. Brady passed for 466 yards playing from behind to steal the game and MVP honors. Still, the value is with the position players including the Rams running back combo or wide receivers.

For the Rams, a real comeback story is running back CJ Anderson, who was signed by the Rams off the street in December and promptly rushed for 167 and 132 yards in the final two regular season games scoring a touchdown each game. In the playoff game against Dallas, he added 123 rushing yards and two more touchdowns.

Last week against the Saints, Anderson had just 44 yards rushing, but that was against a much stronger run defense than the Patriots. Anderson could get a bulk of the rushing load if Todd Gurley is not fully healthy.

There seems to be something not quite right with Gurley after playing few than 50 percent of the snaps against the Saints in the NFC Championship. His knee inflammation is clearly acting up, and Gurley had a turnover and just four carries for 10 rushing yards against the Saints after returning to the lineup the previous playoff game against Dallas and rushing for 115 yards and one touchdown.

If the Rams score into the 30s, which is realistic, then either Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks have a solid shot to have big receiving games, providing MVP value much better than Goff. Woods is Goff’s favorite target and led the team in pass targets in both of the Rams playoff wins. Between 2005-09, three wide receivers won Super Bowl MVP honors.

Two of the past five Super Bowl MVPs have been defensive players, but both those players were on supremely dominant defensive teams when the winning teams shut down the opponent to 10 points or less. That’s very unlikely in the 2019 Super Bowl.

Bet on the Super Bowl MVP at these legal online sportsbooks in New Jersey

History of Super Bowl MVP winners (since 2000)

2018Philadelphia vs New EnglandEagles 41-33QB Nick Foles (PHI)
2017New England vs AtlantaPatriots 34-28 QB Tom Brady (NE)
2016Denver vs CarolinaBroncos 24-10LB Von Miller (DEN)
2015New England vs SeattlePatriots 28-24QB Tom Brady (NE)
2014Seattle vs DenverSeahawks 43-8LB Malcolm Smith (SEA)
2013Baltimore vs San FranciscoRavens 34-31QB Joe Flacco (BAL)
2012NY Giants vs New EnglandGiants 17-14QB Eli Manning (NYG)
2011Green Bay vs PittsburghPackers 31-25QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2010New Orleans vs IndianapolisSaints 31-17QB Drew Brees (NO)
2009Pittsburgh vs ArizonaSteelers 27-23WR Santonio Holmes (PIT)
2008NY Giants vs New EnglandGiants 17-14QB Eli Manning (NYG)
2007Indianapolis vs ChicagoColts 29-17QB Peyton Manning (IND)
2006Pittsburgh vs SeattleSteelers 21-10WR Hines Ward (PIT)
2005New England vs PhiladelphiaPatriots 24-21WR Deion Branch (NE)
2004New England vs CarolinaPatriots 32-29QB Tom Brady (NE)
2003Tampa Bay vs OaklandBuccaneers 48-21S Dexter Jackson (TB)
2002New England vs St. LouisPatriots 20-17QB Tom Brady (NE)
2001Baltimore vs NY GiantsRavens 34-7LB Ray Lewis (BAL)
2000St. Louis vs TennesseeRams 23-16QB Kurt Warner (STL)
FairwayJay Avatar
Written by

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

View all posts by FairwayJay