Super Bowl MVP Odds, Predictions, Best Bets: Bank On Saquon Barkley In Eagles-Chiefs?
With kickoff of Super Bowl 59 odds nearing, many betting markets are at your fingertips. For one, Kansas City is a Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-115) on Caesars spread favorite. However, betting on the game’s MVP is often a more valuable route toward determining which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That is, if you choose correctly. Before appraising potential bets, let’s investigate the lengthy history of Super Bowl MVP odds.
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super bowl MVP odds: mahomes, barkley, more
Super Bowl MVP History
Here’s a look at the award’s history. The table below is sorted by year, position, and team.
| Year | MVP | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2022 | Cooper Kupp | Wide receiver | LA Rams |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2019 | Julian Edelman | Wide receiver | New England Patriots |
| 2018 | Nick Foles | Quarterback | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | Von Miller | Linebacker | Denver Broncos |
| 2015 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | New England Patriots |
| 2014 | Malcolm Smith | Linebacker | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2013 | Joe Flacco | Quarterback | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2012 | Eli Manning | Quarterback | New York Giants |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | Quarterback | Green Bay Packers |
| 2010 | Drew Brees | Quarterback | New Orleans Saints |
| 2009 | Santonio Holmes | Wide receiver | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2008 | Eli Manning | Quarterback | New York Giants |
| 2007 | Peyton Manning | Quarterback | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2006 | Hines Ward | Wide receiver | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2005 | Deion Branch | Wide receiver | New England Patriots |
| 2004 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | New England Patriots |
| 2003 | Dexter Jackson | Safety | Tampa Bay Bucs |
| 2002 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | New England Patriots |
| 2001 | Ray Lewis | Linebacker | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2000 | Kurt Warner | Quarterback | St. Louis Rams |
| 1999 | John Elway | Quarterback | Denver Broncos |
| 1998 | Terrell Davis | Running back | Denver Broncos |
| 1997 | Desmond Howard | Wide receiver | Green Bay Packers |
| 1996 | Larry Brown | Cornerback | Dallas Cowboys |
| 1995 | Steve Young | Quarterback | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1994 | Emmitt Smith | Running back | Dallas Cowboys |
| 1993 | Troy Aikman | Quarterback | Dallas Cowboys |
| 1992 | Mark Rypien | Quarterback | Washington Redskins |
| 1991 | Ottis Anderson | Running back | New York Giants |
| 1990 | Joe Montana | Quarterback | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1989 | Jerry Rice | Wide receiver | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1988 | Doug Williams | Quarterback | Washington Redskins |
| 1987 | Phil Simms | Quarterback | New York Giants |
| 1986 | Richard Dent | Defensive end | Chicago Bears |
| 1985 | Joe Montana | Quarterback | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1984 | Marcus Allen | Running back | Los Angeles Raiders |
| 1983 | John Riggins | Running back | Washington Redskins |
| 1982 | Joe Montana | Quarterback | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1981 | Jim Plunkett | Quarterback | Oakland Raiders |
| 1980 | Terry Bradshaw | Quarterback | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 1979 | Terry Bradshaw | Quarterback | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 1978 | H, Martin, R. White | Defensive end/tackle | Dallas Cowboys |
| 1977 | Fred Biletnikoff | Wide receiver | Oakland Raiders |
| 1976 | Lynn Swann | Wide receiver | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 1975 | Franco Harris | Running back | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 1974 | Larry Csonka | Running back | Miami Dolphins |
| 1973 | Jake Scott | Safety | Miami Dolphins |
| 1972 | Roger Staubach | Quarterback | Dallas Cowboys |
| 1971 | Chuck Howley | Linebacker | Dallas Cowboys |
| 1970 | Len Dawson | Quarterback | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 1969 | Joe Namath | Quarterback | New York Jets |
| 1968 | Bart Starr | Quarterback | Green Bay Packers |
| 1967 | Bart Starr | Quarterback | Green Bay Packers |
The perception that this is a quarterback award is mainly accurate. QBs have won more often (33 times in 58 years) than all other positions combined. Conversely, a running hasn’t won since 1998 (Terrell Davis). Instead, wide receivers have become the favored offensive skill player for the voters.
Only eight defensive players have won, but they’ve come at all three levels. Sack artists and off-ball defenders who secured big turnovers have landed the hardware, so bettors can’t be stunned by almost any winner.
History suggests the MVP will go to an offensive player (49 winners, or 84%), but there are enough counter-examples that bettors shouldn’t discount the other side of the ball. Recent longshots among Super Bowl MVP bets to win on defense include EDGE Von Miller (+2500) and LB Malcolm Smith (off the board).
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Bet On Barkley Over Eagles ML?
If there’s a tailback who can end the streak involving the Pete Rozelle Trophy, it’s Barkley. Like Barkley, Davis delivered four consecutive 100+ yard performances on the ground, manufacturing 184/101/139 yards before capping his run off with a 30-carry, 157-yard, three-score Super Bowl against the Packers.
Per the Super Bowl MVP board, Barkley (+240) has the second-shortest odds, behind only Patrick Mahomes (+105). He’s the first running back to have the same or better odds since 2014, with the Seahawks bulldozer Marshawn Lynch showcasing the same odds (+375) as Russell Wilson.
While Barkley is unlikely to win the regular-season MVP, voters aren’t immune to recency bias. Additionally, he’s manufactured a more dominant postseason, churning out 442 yards with five touchdowns.
Bettors who expect the Eagles to emerge victorious should consider wagering on Barkley instead. You’re more than doubling the payout over the Eagles’ moneyline odds.
Since Week 11, Kansas City ranks 20th across the NFL in EPA per carry allowed. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has historically excelled with extra prep time, but there’s no quick fix for their defensive front against Barkley.
Related: Eli’s Super Bowl Best Bets
watch: chiefs vs. eagles betting preview
Team injuries
Last Updated on 01.31.2025| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||
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