Super Bowl MVP Odds, Predictions, Best Bets: Bank On Saquon Barkley In Eagles-Chiefs?

With kickoff of Super Bowl 59 odds nearing, many betting markets are at your fingertips. For one, Kansas City is a spread favorite. However, betting on the game's MVP is often a more valuable route toward determining which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That is, if you choose correctly. Before appraising potential bets, let's investigate the lengthy history of Super Bowl MVP odds.

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super bowl MVP odds: mahomes, barkley, more

Super Bowl MVP History

Here’s a look at the award's history. The table below is sorted by year, position, and team.

The perception that this is a quarterback award is mainly accurate. QBs have won more often (33 times in 58 years) than all other positions combined. Conversely, a running hasn't won since 1998 (Terrell Davis). Instead, wide receivers have become the favored offensive skill player for the voters.

Only eight defensive players have won, but they've come at all three levels. Sack artists and off-ball defenders who secured big turnovers have landed the hardware, so bettors can't be stunned by almost any winner.

History suggests the MVP will go to an offensive player (49 winners, or 84%), but there are enough counter-examples that bettors shouldn't discount the other side of the ball. Recent longshots among Super Bowl MVP bets to win on defense include EDGE Von Miller (+2500) and LB Malcolm Smith (off the board).

Bet On Barkley Over Eagles ML?

If there's a tailback who can end the streak involving the Pete Rozelle Trophy, it's Barkley. Like Barkley, Davis delivered four consecutive 100+ yard performances on the ground, manufacturing 184/101/139 yards before capping his run off with a 30-carry, 157-yard, three-score Super Bowl against the Packers.

Per the Super Bowl MVP board, Barkley (+240) has the second-shortest odds, behind only Patrick Mahomes (+105). He's the first running back to have the same or better odds since 2014, with the Seahawks bulldozer Marshawn Lynch showcasing the same odds (+375) as Russell Wilson.

While Barkley is unlikely to win the regular-season MVP, voters aren't immune to recency bias. Additionally, he's manufactured a more dominant postseason, churning out 442 yards with five touchdowns.

Bettors who expect the Eagles to emerge victorious should consider wagering on Barkley instead. You're more than doubling the payout over the Eagles' moneyline odds.

Since Week 11, Kansas City ranks 20th across the NFL in EPA per carry allowed. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has historically excelled with extra prep time, but there's no quick fix for their defensive front against Barkley.

Related: Eli's Super Bowl Best Bets

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