Super Bowl MVP Odds: 4 Biggest Longshots To Win The Past 20 Years
Longshots are always an attractive proposition in Super Bowl MVP betting. While quarterbacks — AKA the chalk — have won more than half of the time, plenty of role players and even obscure, anonymous types have also claimed the award. Anything can happen in a single game of football, which is precisely what makes all of the longshots live in Super Bowl MVP odds.
Before rushing to bet a pile of money on Patrick Mahomes () or Brock Purdy (), keep in mind these longshots, who have brought back handsome payouts over the years. This is a look at the top five Super Bowl MVP longshots that cashed.
Remember that the list isn’t necessarily exhaustive, as historical Super Bowl MVP betting data is spotty.
2024 Super Bowl MVP Odds
Top Super Bowl MVP Betting Longshots To Cash
4. Patriots WR Deion Branch, 2004-05 (+1500)
In the days before Tom Brady was favored over the field in Super Bowl MVP betting, he sat at merely +200 prior to Super Bowl 39 against the Eagles.
While Brady enjoyed a solid day (22-for-33, 236 yards and 2 TDs, 0 INT), a huge chunk of that passing volume went to Branch. While the slot maestro failed to get into the end zone, he accounted for a whopping 11 catches and 133 yards on 12 targets. Six of those snags went for first downs.
Branch’s Super Bowl MVP was the crowning moment of a solid career in which he tallied 6,644 yards.
T2. Broncos EDGE/LB Von Miller, 2015-16 (+2500)
In the week leading up to Super Bowl 50, Von Miller was a popular bet, with odds that opened around +5000.
In the game, he played a starring role in Denver’s “No Fly Zone” defense, coordinated by legendary mastermind Wade Phillips. Miller and Co. dragged the offense to playoff victories by allowing just 34 combined points to the Steelers and Patriots. However, he still had longshot odds of 25-1 as the favored Panthers (-5) had QB Cam Newton favored over the field around -140.
Miller almost single-handedly powered the Broncos to victory. In the first quarter, he sacked and stripped Newton, with the Broncos recovering for a touchdown to go up 10-0.
In the fourth, Carolina received a punt in its own territory with about five minutes left down 16-10. With the game in the balance, Miller again sacked and stripped Newton. That set up a 4-yard drive for the game-sealing score.
Overall, Newton struggled through a brutal day, absorbing six sacks, scoring no touchdowns either passing or running, and completing fewer than 50% of his passes.
Miller earned Super Bowl MVP as an obvious choice thanks to his part in forcing the league MVP to endure a nightmare game. It will undoubtedly serve as a headlining achievement on his eventual Hall of Fame induction.
T2. Patriots WR Julian Edelman, 2018-19 (+2500)
In Super Bowl 53, QB play was expected to carry the day in one of the Super Bowls with the highest totals ever (55.5). Tom Brady (+120) and Jared Goff (+200) easily headlined the Super Bowl MVP markets, leading high-powered offenses into an indoor game.
The game wound up playing out quite differently. Bill Belichick concocted a legendary game plan. The Patriots successfully nullified the Rams’ system of presnap checks by completely disguising their formations until it was too late to send Goff a play.
A defensive struggle ensued, with the Pats outlasting the Rams 13-3. However, the Rams only turned the ball over once. There weren’t really splash plays to produce a Miller-like MVP. And while Brady tallied a respectable 262 yards, he had more turnovers (1) than TDs (0).
High-volume slot man Edelman did produce a surprisingly massive (considering the score) stat line. His 10 catches for 141 yards enabled longshot backers to cash +2500 tickets.
1. Seahawks LB Malcolm Smith, 2013-14 (Off The Board)
Does this count? Prior to Super Bowl 48, the ultra-anonymous Smith wasn’t even listed on Super Bowl MVP betting odds, though some NFL betting apps surely offered “Field” options. Smith, in his third year with Seattle, had barely started more than half of the team’s games. Fellow LBs Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright played starring roles on the suffocating defense.
Seattle’s vaunted unit proved up to the task in a showdown with Peyton Manning and the record-setting Broncos passing game. Denver failed to advance into Seattle territory on its first three drives and fell into a 15-0 hole.
On the fourth drive, needing points, the Broncos finally found some traction. They drove to the Seattle 35 and faced 3rd and 13. Manning faced heavy pressure despite a four-man rush and got hit as he tried to dump the ball off. The ball popped high into the air, and Smith cut in front of intended receiver Knowshon Moreno. He grabbed the ball in stride and easily ran it back for a 69-yard TD.
Denver turned over on downs on its subsequent and final first-half drive, and the Seahawks ran back the second-half kickoff to sew it up.
Smith’s momentum-turning play had flipped the best chance for the Broncos to get back into the game into a Seattle touchdown. As a result, he was awarded one of the more shocking Super Bowl MVPs.
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