3 Live Super Bowl Longshots To Consider Before Week 1

Bettors interested in Super Bowl odds will naturally wonder about live longshots. Betting longshots can provide huge payouts for a nominal initial investment. However, it’s tricky because longshots are obviously long for a reason. They have major flaws likely to sink them at some point during the course of the season.

Still, the parity-filled NFL often features at least one or two lightly regarded teams making the playoffs. We’ll parrot an oft-repeated stat about the NFL: in 19 of the past 21 seasons, at least one divisional basement dweller has turned it around to finish first. It’s a certainty that some teams are going to hit their ceilings and surprise to the good.

So, which teams’ upside scenarios might leave them positioned as live longshots for Super Bowl 59? We’ve identified three candidates.

Super Bowl 59 Odds

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New York Jets

The downside here is obvious. The Jets have a soon-to-be 41-year-old QB coming off a major injury. There’s no guarantee he even approaches his prior level of play.

Even if Aaron Rodgers plays well, the receiving options are exceptionally thin. Garrett Wilson is the only proven performer unless one counts Breece Hall. Mike Williams is coming off a major injury, the TE group is one of the NFL’s worst, and the other receivers range from uninspiring (Allen Lazard) to unknown (Malachi Corley).

Bettors should be wary of Jets odds in something like NFL win totals.

However, the upside is also clear, with a relatively simple formula. Roll over one of the NFL’s best defenses (third in EPA/play and DVOA), and marry it with a multiple-time NFL MVP.

Rodgers should be well-protected behind a completely rebuilt offensive line. Every projected starter looks solid with the possible exception of second-year C Joe Tippmann. And as a former second-rounder, he could easily take a step forward.

New York also caught some major breaks with their schedule. Fellow third-place teams Minnesota, Denver, and Pittsburgh are arguably the worst teams in their respective divisions for 2024.

The Jets barely qualify as a longshot here (greater than 20-1 odds). They still have a tough division, and Nathaniel Hackett’s offensive coaching remains a likely anchor. But if everything clicks, the Jets could finally go places this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Perhaps the prime post-hype sleeper of 2024. The Jaguars entered last season around 25-1 and now pay out double that following a disappointing 9-8 campaign.

Obviously, Houston has ascended to become the perceived class of the AFC South. And the Texans are indeed loaded with talent.

But Jacksonville still has a pair of valuable pieces in Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. The head coach and the QB are the foundation of any NFL team, and Jacksonville should still be pretty set there. Both of them had wobbly seasons last year, but Pederson is still a former Super Bowl-winning coach, and Lawrence is a former No. 1 pick whose talent still remains tantalizing.

The offense looks like it should be fairly easily fixed. It’s hard to know what to expect of the new receiving corps, but Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones didn’t perform well last season. Perhaps Lawrence will vibe better with his new teammates, Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr.

Some low-hanging fruit certainly exists. Stop giving touches to Tank Bigsby and start leaning more on Lawrence and the passing game, since the offensive line stinks at opening up running lanes (31st in Adjusted Line Yards).

The team’s turnover luck was also poor, finishing 21st in net EPA there. That should regress naturally, especially if someone teaches Lawrence to protect the football better. He’s fumbled 12 times each of the past two years.

If Lawrence ascends into the second tier of QBs — completely within reason based on his talent level — and a fierce pass rush can cover for a mediocre back seven, Jacksonville could find itself back in the mix among Super Bowl longshots. Jags’ odds have 10 projected coin flips (line within three either way). Those will go a long way toward determining the Jags’ fate.

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Seattle Seahawks

Few expected the 2023 Ravens to field one of the league’s best defenses. However, Mike Macdonald coached the group to a first-place finish in defense DVOA and second in defense EPA.

That sort of defensive wizardry should pair nicely with a team that has talent but produced poor results last year. Seattle had one of the worst defenses pretty much across the board. However, the defense is littered with solid names.

Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon provide a promising foundation in the secondary. Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson are solid linebackers, so long as Dodson’s out-of-nowhere 2023 was for real. The pass rush stunk (27th in Adjusted Sack Rate), but Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Leonard Williams, and hopefully premium draft pick Byron Murphy II can all get after the QB.

It wouldn’t be a shock to see a formerly terrible defense jump to the fringes of the top 10 here.

On offense, the questions mainly revolve around the offensive line. The group didn’t provide much help in either the running or passing games. Connor Williams arrived to try to shore up the interior. PFF graded him as a dominant performer last season. Abraham Lucas was rough at RT but dealt with injuries. The Seahawks hope he can return to his promising rookie level of play. This group could be average if things come together.

Geno Smith provides unexciting but acceptable veteran quarterback play. As long as everyone stays healthy, he certainly has a quality trio of receivers to throw to.

Unlike the loaded AFC, the NFC is ripe for someone to rise up and challenge the established powers. Seattle could be that team, at very long odds among Super Bowl longshots.