Ranking Chiefs, Eagles Impact Players For Super Bowl 59 Picks: Barkley, Kelce, More
Come Super Bowl Sunday, legal US sportsbooks drop hundreds of props for sports bettors. From Patrick Mahomes passing yards to Zack Baun tackles and assists, no betting event offers more options than the Super Bowl. While Jalen Hurts tops most impact player rankings, that's a market with plenty of eyes on it (and, therefore, is exceptionally sharp). Let's look at the other impact players between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs and rank the top five for your Super Bowl picks.
Players below are ranked according to their potential impact on Super Bowl 59. Find a few prop picks, as well. Note: We removed quarterbacks from the rankings for apparent reasons.
Follow along with complete Super Bowl 59 coverage from TheLines. Get expert opinions on sides and totals, along with Super Bowl best bets from our staff coming soon!
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Super Bowl 59 Impact Players, Ranked
Before diving into the rankings, let's review some strategies that may help you prop a bet on Feb. 9. First, always consider the sides and totals. At 48.5 (-108) on FanDuel points, oddsmakers anticipate a fairly middle-of-the-road scoring affair. However, note that this total jumped more than four points following conference championship weekend. Hypothetical odds from FanDuel Sportsbook tabbed this game with a 45.5-point over/under.
At Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-115) on Caesars, the implied final score comes out to 25.5-24. It is undoubtedly opportune for some offense, but I'd advise caution laying a six-legged parlay consisting of nothing but overs.
OK, let's get into our Super Bowl player rankings.
5. Chiefs LB Nick Bolton
Through three playoff rounds, Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is tied for the team lead with 18 targets (A.J. Brown). Of those 18 targets, 15 were caught for a team-best 188 yards and a touchdown. Of the 20 players to see 10+ targets this postseason, Goedert ranks No. 1 among TEs and No. 4 overall in yards per route run (2.54). Via play-action, Goedert is typically the first read when not taking a shot downfield (5.2 average depth of target, vs. Brown's 13.2 aDOT). When Jalen Hurts has to hold onto the football and progress to reads two, three, etc., trouble awaits.
So, Kansas City needs a good counter to Hurts' top safety blanket. Nick Bolton is one of the more athletic linebackers in the NFL and is a plus-coverage linebacker (12th in PFF's LB coverage grades, min. 300 snaps). However, only two teams allowed more receptions to TEs this year than the Chiefs.
If Bolton has a strong game in coverage and takes Goedert away on critical downs, Philly's offense will struggle through the air.
4. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
Thanks to an elite-level scheme, sharing the backfield with another rushing threat (Hurts), and a strong offensive line, Saquon Barkley turned in one of the best running back performances in NFL history this year. He became just the ninth player to rush for 2,000 yards, joining Hall of Famers like Eric Dickerson (1984), Barry Sanders (1994), and Terrell Davis (1998). Since Thanksgiving, Barkley was held under 100 rushing yards once while turning in two 200-yard outings.
Defense led the way this season for the Chiefs, who managed a 17-2 record despite surpassing 30 points once. While rushing scores have been intermittent against that KC defense — it ranked 10th in red zone touchdown rate at 53.3% — teams have found success on the ground against it. On the season, the Chiefs finished with a negative EPA against the run and finished 16th in success rate (44.1%). However, they only surrendered eight rushes of 20+ yards this year, the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
Nearly 50% of Barkley's yards this year came on breakaway runs of 15+ yards, his best mark since his rookie year in 2018. Opposition hasn't seemed to matter much, as Barkley ran for 119 yards against Green Bay (ninth in rushing success rate allowed), 107 against Baltimore (sixth), and 8.4 per carry against Tampa Bay (fifth).
- Saquon Barkley Super Bowl pick: Longest rush OVER 25.5 yards (-120)
3. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
In four Super Bowl appearances, Travis Kelce has been targeted 37 times (9.3 per game), catching 31 targets (7.8 per game). Though 2024 saw Kelce's lowest output since his rookie season, Ole Reliable rose to the occasion this postseason. Eight targets turned into seven receptions and 116 yards against the Texans in his best output of the year. However, in the AFC championship, Kelce saw just four targets for two catches and 19 yards against the Bills. In typical Chiefs fashion, eight players saw a target in that game.
A Wednesday report seemingly put Kelce's retirement rumors to bed. But, as Kelce himself stated, that decision "changes every single day." Could we see one more great performance here, should Kelce choose to hang it up?
The route there won't be easy. The Eagles allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to TEs this season on the fifth-fewest targets and the fewest yards in the league. While Philadelphia lost LB Nakobe Dean to a knee injury, the other two backers stack up as some of the best coverage LBs in the NFL. Zack Baun and Oren Burks are two of the best eight coverage LBs (min. 200 snaps). Both stand 6-foot-3 and are physical enough to play Kelce tight.
- Travis Kelce Super Bowl pick: UNDER 64.5 receiving yards (-110)
2. Eagles K Jake Elliott
In a twist best described as sick, Jake Elliott is the most accurate postseason kicker ever (field goals) and the least accurate postseason kicker ever (extra points). In a game with as razor-thin a margin as this — and on the biggest stage in sports — Elliott must hit even one-point attempts or risk putting the Eagles behind the eight-ball early.
Elliott missed two extra points in the NFC divisional round against the Rams, including his final attempt with 4:36 left in the game. As a result, the Rams' desperation score brought the game within one possession. Philadelphia's defense held its ground, resulting in the victory. It even made one of those point-after tries, which would have kept the game two scores beyond doubt.
KC is 12-0 in one-score games and 6-0 in games decided by a field goal or less. It's apparent what missing two extra points could mean in this game.
- Jake Elliott Super Bowl pick: OVER 1.5 field goals made (+110)
1. Eagles OL Cam Jurgens/Landon Dickerson
Cam Jurgens missed a start at center against the Commanders due to a back injury. He did play 31 snaps — a welcome surprise to Eagles fans who expected the starter to miss the entire game — in relief of Landon Dickerson, who started at center but exited due to an injury of his own. Fortunately, these two have two weeks to recover ahead of Super Bowl 59. Unfortunately, Philadelphia may enter the game with two hurt centers.
Even a healthy Eagles offensive line interior has its hands full. Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones ranks atop PFF's pass rush grades for interior defensive linemen, logging seven sacks, 18 QB hits, and 60 pressures this season. He also logged a ridiculous 24.3% pass rush win rate this year.
Healthy or not, the Eagles' offensive game plan will be thrown out the window if Jurgens and Dickerson, plus sixth offensive lineman Tyler Steen, get bullied for 60 minutes.
- Chris Jones Super Bowl pick: OVER 0.25 sacks (+110)
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