Super Bowl Kicker Props: Best Odds For Harrison Butker and Jake Moody
One of the most intriguing Super Bowl betting markets for finding potential value is also one of the least sexy. There’s little conversation around Super Bowl kicker props, but that doesn’t mean there are not good prices. In fact, one of my favorite Super Bowl prop bets this year is a kicker bet. The Chiefs will rely on Harrison Butker to put the ball through the uprights, while it’s rookie Jake Moody for the 49ers.
Before I share my thoughts, make sure to check the best sports betting sites when betting any Super Bowl bets and use our virtual assistant to find the right sportsbook for you.
Tag Team Back Again: How I Cashed Super Bowl Kicker Props Last Year
Last year, in researching Super Bowl kicker props, I noticed a market inefficiency. The Philadelphia Eagles were -200 to score three or more touchdowns last year in the Super Bowl, but Jake Elliott was only -115 to hit Over 2.5 PATs. It wasn’t an isolated misprice at one book. It was across multiple books.
The price doesn’t make sense – teams don’t go for two-point conversions often enough to induce that amount of difference between touchdowns scored and PATs. It was a market inefficiency. The Eagles kicked PATs after three of their touchdowns, and the Over 2.5 PATs hit.
This bet isn’t necessarily about who you think is going to win. It’s a pure value proposition. If the market thinks that these teams are going to score touchdowns, getting Overs on PAT bets is just an easy way to get essentially the same bet at a better price.
Now, not every kicker is worth betting on, and this year’s Super Bowl kicker props offer only one good option.
‘Bout To Show All You Folks What It’s All About: 49ers K Jake Moody
Here, there’s little point in betting Moody. The Niners are -130 to score three or more touchdowns, a reasonable price given what the Chiefs did to the Ravens defensively. Moody, a rookie kicker whom Niners fans don’t trust and who missed a 46-yard field goal against Detroit, is -120. There’s no point in betting Over 2.5 PATs for Moody.
There is some risk that even if a team scores three touchdowns, it won’t convert three PATs. There’s some chance they need to go for two to tie the game, as Philly had to do last year. Moody could shank a PAT wide. He’s missed a kick in three consecutive games. Those risks aren’t huge, but they are there. And there’s no point in betting the PATs if the Touchdown bet is only 10 cents steeper in price.
If you’re a Niners offensive optimist, just bet the Over on 2.5 touchdowns. The Over 2.5 PATs for Jake Moody is not enough value to make it worth betting. If the gap between the Niners touchdowns and Moody’s price widens, this might be worth revisiting. But at a minimal difference, this isn’t worth a bet.
Whoomp! (There It Is): Chiefs K Harrison Butker
Here’s where there is a lot of value.
The Chiefs are -122 to score three or more touchdowns. If they play to the level we all know they’re capable of, that’s a solid possibility. What makes it more exciting? Harrison Butker is +130 to go over 2.5 PATs. This is the kind of value that I’m looking for in Super Bowl kicker props.
Unlike the 10-cent gap between the price of the Niners touchdowns and Moody’s PATs, here we have a 52-cent gap in price. A $100 bet on the Chiefs to go Over 2.5 touchdowns would pay out $82 in profit if it wins. A winning Butker Over ticket would pay out $130 in profit. That’s an extremely significant difference in payouts from what is fundamentally the same underlying bet.
That value comes at a (slight) price, but it’s worth paying. The market thinks the Chiefs are slightly favored to score three or more touchdowns. There’s a way to bet them to do so that would pay out +130 in most cases. It’s a value play and one that worked out for me last year, too.
Bring it back y’all, Bring it back y’all
Obviously, past results are not necessarily predictive. Just because the Eagles paid out this bet last year doesn’t mean it’ll hit again. But it’s the same underlying process that worked last year.
The price you’d pay to bet the Chiefs to score three or more TDs is 52 cents steeper than to bet the Over on Butker PATs. That’s 52 cents of value that can lead to increased payouts if it wins or lower risk for the same reward. Either way, this Super Bowl Kicker props market inefficiency is one to pay attention to, and one I will be betting again.
PrizePicks Kicker Combo
- Butker & Moody To Make One 48-Yard+ FG Combined
- $100 Depsoit Match With Promo Code THELINES