Crystal Ball: When Betting Super Bowl Futures, History Says Stick To Medium Favorites

Sean Chaffin September 4, 2018 456 Reads
Super Bowl Futures

Football is the biggest season for the American sports betting world. For pro football fans, that all culminates with the Super Bowl on Feb. 3. No doubt many bettors are already getting in on the fun with their Super Bowl futures bets.

With so much parity in the NFL, the good news for sports bettors is that there is always hope. Each year it seems a low-wrung team manages to emerge and make a run to the playoffs, and occasionally the Super Bowl. But overall, bettors should steer clear of these longshots if recent history means anything.

In 2017, the Eagles opened at around +5000 (50/1) before beating the Patriots 41-33 in February to bring home the title. The Patriots started as a 13/4 favorite. A hundred bucks on the Eagles would have earned a lucky bettor $5,000. That would certainly fund a nice vacation – after the season of course.

Parity makes those longer-odds teams seem possible for Super Bowl or conference champions. But a quick look at teams over the last decade shows that out of nowhere long-odds champions are rare. The Eagles were an outlier.

The futures betting sweet spot seems to be in the +1200 (12/1) to +1800 (18/1) range before the season gets underway. Here’s a look at those winners and their pre-season futures odds courtesy of FootballLocks.com.

  • 2018 – Eagles (+5000)
  • 2017 – Patriots (+800)
  • 2016 – Broncos (+1000)
  • 2015 – Patriots (+1500)
  • 2014 – Seahawks (+1200)
  • 2013 – Ravens (+1200)
  • 2012 – Giants (+1500)
  • 2011 – Packers (+1200)
  • 2010 – Saints (+2500)
  • 2009 – Steelers (+1800)
  • 2008 – Giants (+3000)

In this span of 11 Super Bowls, only three longshots (27.3 percent) won it all. But teams with odds between +1000 and +1800 brought home the Lombardi Trophy eight times (72.7 percent). So you’re looking at the Browns at 80-1 or up and coming squads like the Titans (+3400) or Chiefs (+2800), that money might be better spent.

This year, only around 10 teams fall within that betting range from the Rams and Vikings at +1100 to the Saints and Falcons at +1800. While the smart money should probably go there, the thrill of hitting on a bet on recent Super Bowls champs like the Giants, Saints, or Eagles convinces many bettors open the wallet for that longshot.

As the season approaches, here’s a look at every NFL teams’ odds to win the Super Bowl at the various online sportsbooks in New Jersey:

TeamDraftKingsBetStarsFanDuel888sportSugarHouse
Arizona+300000+250000+500000+300000+300000
Atlanta+25000+25000+25000+25000+25000
Baltimore+5000+6000+8000+5000+5000
Buffalo+50000+75000+500000+50000+50000
Carolina+6600+6600+6500+6600+6600
Chicago+1600+1600+2100+1600+1600
Cincinnati+25000+15000+25000+25000+25000
Cleveland+15000+17500+75000+15000+15000
Dallas+3300+3500+3600+3300+3300
Denver+10000+8500+17000+10000+10000
Detroit+25000+25000+25000+25000+25000
Green Bay+10000+10000+16000+10000+10000
Houston+1800+1800+2100+1800+1800
Indianapolis+4000+4000+3600+4000+4000
Jacksonville+50000+75000+45000+50000+50000
Kansas City+525+550+500+525+525
LA Chargers+1600+1500+1400+1600+1600
LA Rams+350+350+380+350+350
Miami+30000+30000+25000+30000+30000
Minnesota+2200+2200+2200+2200+2200
NE Patriots+650+750+500+650+650
NO Saints+300+300+270+300+300
NY Giants+25000+50000+75000+25000+25000
NY Jets+50000+100000+500000+50000+50000
Oakland+300000+400000+500000+300000+300000
Philadelphia+5000+5500+8000+5000+5000
Pittsburgh+1400+1200+1600+1400+1400
SF 49ers+300000+300000+100000+300000+300000
Seattle+4000+4500+6500+4000+4000
Tampa Bay+50000+75000+100000+50000+50000
Tennessee+12500+10000+16000+12500+12500
Washington+12500+12500+16000+12500+12500

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