What are Super Bowl exacta odds and how should bettors approach them? Below, we’ll lay out the math behind the numbers, what the numbers mean, and how you can logically find opportunity in exacta odds.
Beyond that, we’ll show you how betting exacta odds could be beneficial versus a rolling parlay. A rolling parlay is when you bet moneylines from one week and rollover the amount wagered plus winnings to a game the following week, in this case the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Exacta Odds
Chiefs to beat Rams
Rams to beat Chiefs
Chiefs to beat 49ers
49ers to beat Chiefs
Rams to beat Bengals
49ers to beat Bengals
Bengals to beat Rams
Bengals to beat 49ers
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What Are Exacta Odds?
Exacta odds are odds placed on an exact outcome. It’s a similar concept to the name of the bet made in horse racing, where you bet the top-two finishers in exact order of finish. In football, this bet is also sometimes called “straight forecast,” “exact result,” or “exact outcome,” but the premise is all the same. In short, “Team X beats Team Y.”
The catch with exacta odds is that, if you guess both championship winners correct but not the Super Bowl outcome correct, you lose the bet. For example, if you bet “Chiefs beat Rams” and both the Chiefs and Rams make the Super Bowl, but the Rams win it, your bet loses.
Super Bowl Exacta Odds: Breaking Down The Options
Finding opportunity in markets as heavily bet as the Super Bowl is difficult. These numbers are backed by research, power ratings and modeling by oddsmakers, and ratings of teams have already been wrung through a long line of professionals that have a major edge over recreational bettors.
However, in more narrowed markets like exacta odds, there may lie opportunity in some of the numbers.
Ultimately, there’s no massive inefficiencies between moneylines and derivative markets, but there is a way to increase potential payouts in some of the potential Super Bowl outcomes.
If you’re interested in the math, it’s laid out below.
One Way To Increase Potential Payout
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll use a potential 49ers and Chiefs Super Bowl matchup. You could disagree on both fronts and are confident in a Rams-Bengals Super Bowl. The logic applies no matter the teams.
So, you’ve chosen your conference winners. Now, it’s time to decide the winner of that matchup– or is it?
BetMGM offers the best odds of a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl matchup at +230, implying a 30.3% chance that we see it.
However, DraftKings’ exacta odds suggest there’s an implied 33.3% probability that either the Chiefs beat the 49ers or the 49ers beat the Chiefs. How did we get to 33.3%? Those Super Bowl exacta outcomes have odds of +400 and +650. Those implied chances are 20% and 13.3%. Combined that equals 33.3%. That’s the largest numbers discrepancy available in these Super Bowl matchup vs. exacta markets, the latest example of why you should shop lines.
By laying an equal stake on both Chiefs to beat 49ers (+400) and 49ers to beat Chiefs (+650), you’re getting a better potential payout depending on the Super Bowl outcome, than just betting which teams play in the Super Bowl. All of this obviously assumes you pick the two correct teams.
- Chiefs-49ers matchup (+230): $20 to profit $46
vs. splitting the bet into exactas:
- Chiefs over 49ers (+400): $10 to profit $40 on this bet, but also subtract $10 for bet below. Net profit of $30
- 49ers over Chiefs (+650): $10 to profit $65 on this bet, but also subtract $10 for bet above. Net profit of $55
Super Bowl Exacta Odds: Breaking Down The Math
Super Bowl Exacta Odds: Implied Probability
If you’re interested in the math used to compare numbers, you can find it below. Caesars Sportsbook has released Super Bowl LVI look-ahead lines, so we’ll reference those. First, we’re going to convert all the exacta odds into implied probabilities (using the DK odds from the table above):
- Chiefs to beat Rams: +250 = 28.57%
- Rams to beat Chiefs: +350 = 22.22%
- Chiefs to beat 49ers: +400 = 20.00%
- 49ers to beat Chiefs: +650 = 13.33%
- Rams to beat Bengals: +900 = 10.00%
- 49ers to beat Bengals: +1400 = 6.67%
- Bengals to beat Rams: +1400 = 6.67%
- Bengals to beat 49ers: +2000 = 4.76%
Combining Moneylines From Conference Championships And Super Bowl Look-Aheads
Now we need to see if the implied probability of any of the above outcomes are worth betting. Next, we’re going to look at conference championship implied win probabilities.
- Chiefs: -335 = 77.01%
- Rams: -170 = 62.96%
- 49ers: +150 = 40.00%
- Bengals: +260 = 27.78%
Multiply them together to get each Super Bowl matchup probability:
- Chiefs vs. Rams: 77.01% x 62.96% = 48.49%
- Chiefs vs. 49ers: 77.01% x 40.00% = 30.80%
- Bengals vs. Rams: 27.78% x 62.96% = 17.49%
- Bengals vs. 49ers: 27.78% x 40.00% = 11.11%
And finally, multiply those with Super Bowl moneyline odds from Caesars Sportsbook look-ahead lines to calculate the probability of each exacta and true value odds:
- Chiefs (-125) to beat Rams: 48.49% x 55.56% = 26.94% (+271)
- Rams (+105) to beat Chiefs: 48.49% x 48.78% = 23.65% (+323)
- Chiefs (-145) to beat 49ers: 30.80% x 59.18% = 18.23% (+449)
- 49ers (+125) to beat Chiefs: 30.80% x 44.44% = 13.69% (+631)
- Rams (-175) to beat Bengals: 17.49% x 63.64% = 11.13% (+799)
- Bengals (+150) to beat Rams: 17.49% x 40.00% = 7.00% (+1329)
- 49ers (-125) to beat Bengals: 11.11% x 55.56% = 6.17% (+1521)
- Bengals (+105) to beat 49ers: 11.11% x 48.78% = 5.42% (+1745)
If the true value odds are better than the Super Bowl exacta odds offered at sportsbooks, it is not worth betting the Super Bowl exacta. You’d increase your potential payout just betting moneylines this weekend and rolling it all over into the Super Bowl.
However, there were a couple cases in our exercise where the Super Bowl exacta odds were slightly better than the true value odds. Those would be worth betting. Again, this assumes you believe there is value in betting those teams to advance to the Super Bowl.