Super Bowl Eve: Last‑Minute Line Movement & Late Angles

It's officially Super Bowl Eve, and it's incredible to see a Super Bowl XLIX matchup, considering the Seattle Seahawks opened at +6000 to win it all, while the Patriots were +12000 going into the year. One lucky bettor could cash in for $310,000 after putting in a $100 bet on the Seahawks to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl back in the preseason at 3100-to-1 odds.

After the Seattle Seahawks briefly opened at -3.5, the Seahawks quickly moved to -4.5 and haven't moved off that line since.

Why Hasn't the Line Moved?

Well, even though the line has held steady at -4.5, the sportsbooks have been wary to move the line any more, as that would create potentially expensive middle-ground scenarios. Instead of moving the line back and forth, the oddsmakers have adjusted the juice.

While the line would generally be -4.5 at -110, the current odds (via DraftKings), the odds have moved to -115. At some points during the week, the odds had shifted to as much as -120.

We've seen plenty of movement in the Seattle moneyline, with FanDuel moving the Seahawks back to -240 after being as low as -250 midweek.

Sportsbooks don't chase public money the way they do during the regular season, as the extreme majority of the handle is coming from recreational bettors.  The steadiness of the line is also screaming confidence from the sportsbooks.

While the public continues to pile money on the Seahawks, the books are holding the line, which could indicate them believing in the Patriots to keep it close and/or the public to send in a ton of late money on New England.

What We Can Expect on Super Bowl Sunday

We can see the line move considerably as we get closer to the game. A bunch of sharp money and last-second bets will pull the market, which should result in some major moneyline movement. At the moment, the sportsbooks are expecting a lot of money to come in on the Patriots, as they are nearly +200 and represent some fantastic value.

Currently, the Seahawks are receiving some historic backing from the betting public. According to various sources, the Seahawks -4.5 are getting 62% of spread wagers and 60% of spread money. For reference, the most lopsided spread-side betting was Super Bowl XLVIII (Broncos vs Seahawks), when the Denver Broncos received 68% of spread bets.

When you look at the money line, it's also not even close, with the Seahawks receiving about 75% of all bets and 83% of all money. That number is expected to plummet before the Super Bowl kicks off.

Under is Leaning Sharp

My best bet for the Super Bowl is the under. I'm slamming the under because I'm convinced that both teams have plenty more to provide on the defensive end.

The Patriots have allowed just 26 points in their three postseason games (8.7 points per game), while the Seahawks possess the number one regular-season scoring defense, giving up 17.2 points. In fact, against teams not named the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle have given up just 44 points in their last six games (7.3 points per game).

Right now, 69% of the bets are on over 45.5, while 38% of the actual handle is on the under. I'm fully expecting the sharp money to continue hammering the under. It's worth remembering that the total started at 46.5, so it feels that the sportsbooks are expecting more under money as well.

Up to $250 Bonus Bet

Code: TLCSPO20X Copied!

Bet Now Caesars Promo

21+ New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. First bet after registration must qualify. Max. Bonus Bet: $1,000. Bonus Bet expires 14 days after receipt. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)

Belief in Drake Maye's Legs

Drake Maye's rushing props have seen significant movement in the last week. In fact, his "Anytime Touchdown Scorer" prop has lowered from +400 to +260 on some sportsbooks, while his rushing yards prop has gone up from 32.5 yards to 37.5 yards on some books.

Maye has run for 65 or more yards in two of New England's three postseason games, all coming against top defenses.