Super Bowl Futures: Where Betting Longshot Odds Goes To Die

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Super Bowl Betting

Entering any NFL season, the betting favorites among Super Bowl odds aren’t necessarily appealing. That is especially the case if you’re a fan of longshots. However, teams with shorter odds have been the ones claiming the Lombardi Trophy. It will continue on Sunday, whether it’s the Chiefs or the 49ers. Below we’ll examine this Super Bowl betting trend in recent years, and why you should maybe think twice about betting teams down the board next season.

One quick note: you can also use our new tool here to find the best sports betting sites for you.

Super Bowl betting: bank on favorites

Including the upcoming “Big Game,” nine of the last 11 Super Bowl champions will have been listed at 14-1 preseason odds or shorter. For reference, that includes a trio of titles for the Patriots, two for the Chiefs, along with the Rams, Buccaneers, Broncos, and Seahawks.

In fact, Tampa Bay was the only Wild Card team from that group. Tom Brady & Co. began the 2020 postseason as the No. 5 seed following an 11-5 regular season. They upended No. 4 seed Washington, No. 2 New Orleans, and No. 1 Green Bay. In Super Bowl 55, they flattened Kansas City, 31-9, at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs were three-point underdogs in the season finale.

What does that insinuate? Even if your longshot pick advances to the Super Bowl, like the 2021 Bengals at 150-1, you’ve had to hedge off late to make a profit.

However, there’s one caveat — the 2017 Eagles. Philadelphia went from longshot to among the midseason favorites and then back to longshot to start the postseason. That year, Carson Wentz’s torn ACL abruptly forced Nick Foles under center. As a result, Philly was a field-goal underdog at home (!) in the NFC title game. The market was incorrect with that assumption. Foles threw all over the Vikings that night before upsetting Brady on the biggest stage.

If you’re interested in betting Patrick Mahomes as an underdog this time around, the best available odds in your state are below.

YearSuper Bowl ChampionOpening Futures

Super Bowl 58 odds: spread, moneyline, total

watch: chiefs vs. 49ers betting preview

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