Super Bowl Betting Shows Closest Odds In NFL Playoff History

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber on January 24, 2023
nfl playoff odds

NFL playoff odds move into Conference Championship weekend, and fans continue to participate in Super Bowl betting in advance of the big game. There are just four teams still in contention with a trip to Super Bowl 57 on the line. While Conference Championship odds are on the move, there’s also been some historic fluctuation in Super Bowl odds.

Click on any of the odds below to place a bet.

Historic NFL Playoff Odds At This Point In Super Bowl Futures

This year is the first time the final four teams are all longer than +200 and shorter than +350. These are the most evenly matched NFL playoff odds for conference finalists in history, at least as far back as record keeping goes. Most every year, there is a favorite at this point shorter than +200.

2015 is the closest comparison to this season, where the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots were +200, Arizona Cardinals +300, and Denver Broncos +400, according to Sports Odds History.

Some other close ones were 1980 (odds between +160 and +300) and 2018 (odds between +175 and +350).

SUPER BOWL BETTING: Team Previews

Philadelphia Eagles

The 1-seed Philadelphia Eagles saw their title odds shorten to +260 after being at +500 heading into the Divisional round. The Eagles punched their ticket to the NFC Conference Championship after a blowout win over the New York Giants. It’s tough to accurately assess how legitimate the Eagles rank among the remaining teams coming off a blowout win. The Giants were probably the worst remaining team heading into the that round.

Philadelphia is tied for fourth in yards per play (5.9) and allowing 4.8 yards per play to their opponents. This matchup with the 49ers is as close as it gets; however, we have a much bigger sample size of Jalen Hurts’ dominance than we do with Brock Purdy.

Regardless it was utter domination on both sides of the ball against New York, proving they belonged. There are no holes on this roster from top to bottom, and hoisting the Lombardi shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars during the Divisional Round to advance to their fifth straight conference championship game. This Championship game will be a rematch of the 2022 AFC Championship. Patrick Mahomes has been the MVP for carrying a new-look offense without star wide receiver Tyreek Hill.

The real question for Kansas City is how healthy Mahomes is with his high ankle sprain suffered in the Divisional round. The Chiefs are at their best when they can also take pressure off Mahomes with running the football effectively. Isiah Pacheco’s being the early-down bruiser back combined with Jerick McKinnon’s dynamic receiving ability is vital to the Chiefs success.

If Steve Spagnuolo’s defense can put together a couple of solid defensive games, the Chiefs chances will obviously increase at making a Super Bowl run. Kansas City finished second in the NFL with 55 sacks. Defensive tackle Chris Jones had 15.5 sacks, tied for fourth-best this season, an incredible accomplishment for an interior lineman.

Early in the season, the defense was a significant concern for the Chiefs. Entering Week 14, they allowed an average 101.4 QB rating with a 68.1% completion rate. It has improved down the stretch.

Cincinnati Bengals

Back-to-back years of defying the odds, The Cincinnati Bengals upset the Buffalo Bills, advancing to their second AFC Championship Game in as many years. The Bengals have rattled off ten straight victories. Cincinnati is +260 to win Super Bowl 57. We can’t ignore the playoff magic that Joe Burrow continues to put together.

Before the start of the 2022 season, bettors did not make Cincinnati the favorite to win the AFC North, behind the Baltimore Ravens.

Burrow put up 4,475 yards and 35 touchdowns in his 16 games, both top five. In the three games this season where he has been sacked five or more times, the Bengals have lost all three. 

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have the longest Super Bowl odds among the remaining teams. The 49ers are playing for the NFC Championship for the third time in four years. This year, as the No. 2 seed, they will go on the road to face the No. 1 seed Eagles.

The 49ers saw their running game limited against the Cowboys. Philadelphia, however, has been vulnerable against the run.

The 49ers are so strong defensively, ranking No. 2 in the NFL and No. 1 in the NFC in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA metric. Nick Bosa led the NFL in sacks, while linebacker Fred Warner has been a devil for opposing QBs all season.

Ever since “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy has been forced into starting at quarterback, he hasn’t looked out of place. Purdy has done enough in the absence of Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. A seventh-round rookie quarterback leading his team all the way to Super Bowl would be unprecedented but something that isn’t beyond reach.

Best of luck betting on NFL playoff odds.

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Jeffrey Schreiber Avatar
Written by
Jeffrey Schreiber

Jeffrey Schreiber is a sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media. Jeff is recent college graduate with a background in finance and analytics. His goal is to provide readers with data and information behind the "why" to make a bet. His most memorable betting moment came during the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs when he turned $37 in same-game parlay bets into $25,000.

View all posts by Jeffrey Schreiber