Super Bowl 59 Longshots: Can Texans Make A Leap In 2024?
Super Bowl betting is open for 2024-25. Early on is always an interesting time to look at longer shots, as TheLines’ Eli Hershkovich did last spring, locking in a Ravens bet at +2500 that had a strong positive expected value. Teams have a chance to improve via the draft and free agency, potentially shortening their Super Bowl odds.
So, which longshots in Super Bowl 59 odds could present some value for 2024? I’m defining “longshots” here as teams with market prices of +2000 or longer. Let’s take a look at a few that I’m eyeing. A couple of them are a bit obvious. I think I can fairly say that one would qualify as a stunner, though.
Super Bowl 59: Full Odds Board
Possible Longshot Bets For Next Season
Houston Texans ()
Houston figures to be a popular bet for next year, and I think that’s for good reason.
First and foremost, they have the quarterback. CJ Stroud is the type of guy I could absolutely see leading a Texans team that makes the leap to the Super Bowl. He got his tail kicked by the Ravens as the Texans ran into a bit of a buzzsaw there. But I do think Stroud is, for lack of a better descriptor, that dude. He has exactly the type of poise that plays up against playoff defenses when mistakes are magnified and margins are thin.
Salary projections via PFF have the Texans behind only the Titans and Commanders in cap space. They could stand to make additions to the offensive line, which couldn’t run block and ranked below par in Adjusted Sack Rate. Getting to the playoffs with Tank Dell and Nico Collins healthy will be paramount unless a premium WR is added.
The bigger adds may come on defense, where ten rotation players hit free agency. That number includes good, but not irreplaceable, players LB Blake Cashman, EDGE Jonathan Greenard, and CB Steven Nelson. Watch for what the Texans do to improve those units or at least keep them afloat.
If you’re looking for more reasons to be hopeful about Texans odds, they also may benefit from playing in the AFC South; although, we’ll see where that division lands. With Indianapolis seemingly on the upswing and Jacksonville also having a solid foundation, the Texans certainly shouldn’t waltz to a free home game in the playoffs.
Ultimately, perhaps the biggest argument against a Texans bet might simply be playing in the AFC. With Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson steering yearly contenders, the path to the Super Bowl is much tougher.
Green Bay Packers ()
Packers odds have a similar situation brewing to that of the Texans. They have a young, strong-armed QB who performed well enough to win a playoff game. They have a coach who looks like he’ll rank in the league’s upper half and have surrounded Jordan Love with quality young playmakers.
And because of Love’s middling contract, he has an extremely team-friendly cap hit for another year.
As for what might change, the Packers have a bit of a double-edged sword. Only a handful of rotation players hit free agency, but the projected cap space means they probably can’t add major pieces without making some cuts.
The defense ranked in the bottom half of the league in basically every meaningful metric. They must improve there, and the most meaningful addition will come in the form of a new defensive coordinator. Green Bay opted to elevate Jeff Hafley from a head job in the college ranks rather than bring in an experienced mind to replace the poorly performing Joe Barry. If Hafley can coax a similar leap to what the Browns got from bringing in Jim Schwartz, the Packers will have something brewing.
Contending with the Lions will make for an interesting battle in the division. The Packers at least play in the right conference, and the price is just long enough to be interesting.
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Seattle Seahawks ()
When looking at some of the really longshots for Super Bowl 59 betting, I just keep coming back to Seahawks odds. It’s the only team that looks remotely live to me. There are a few keys to watch for here.
No. 1 is obviously the level of play Geno Smith can provide at QB. Can he return to the form that had him a shocking seventh in EPA+CPOE composite in 2022 before he slipped to 14th last year? Was that slippage even on Smith? PFF actually graded him higher in 2023, so it’s possible his supporting cast (mainly the offensive line, 19th in Adjusted Sack Rate) was to blame. Heading into his age-34 season with low mileage on the tires, Smith shouldn’t hit a cliff any time soon.
Following up on that, how will the team replace (improve?) the interior offensive line? The unit should be set at tackle with young developing talents Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Meanwhile, the entire interior hits free agency. Helpfully, those upgrades shouldn’t be expensive, but the Seahawks will have to make some cuts since they’re slightly over the projected cap.
Most intriguingly, the defense is pretty rich with talent despite some poor 2023 metrics. They have premium young players in CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Riq Woolen, EDGE Boye Mafe, and EDGE Uchenna Nwosu. Pairing this group with an elite coordinator but first-time Head Coach Mike Macdonald could make for a breakout.
Between Macdonald and the fact incoming Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb has never directed a pro offense, there’s a lot of uncertainty around this staff. But if they prove adept, they do have solid talent on both sides of the ball.
Obviously, playing in the same division as the Juggernaut 49ers hurts. But you aren’t going to find an 80-1 shot without at least some warts, and I think there’s real upside with this group.
Perhaps all Super Bowl betting roads will again lead back to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But perhaps the Super Bowl 59 champion will be like the Buccaneers and Eagles in recent years and come from further down the futures board.
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