Each week during NFL season, several members have selected their favorite plays. For the big game, I’ve compiled our Super Bowl best bets, honing in on prop markets. Readers can then decide if any are worth following.
Super Bowl 57 Best Bets: Eagles vs. Chiefs
If you’re interested in searching for your own Super Bowl best bets, and player props in particular, try out our free player prop finder below for Super Bowl 57 odds.
$500 Big Game Props Card! Compete for prizes by entering our FREE pick’em game for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
Eli Hershkovich: Jalen Hurts Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-120)
While this number was bet down in recent days, it’s still worth playing. Hurts is tallying just 6.0 yards per attempt since returning from a sprained shoulder in Week 18. Sure, he’s been gifted with roughly two weeks to recover. But Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo, who has made a career out of toying with Tom Brady in a pair of Super Bowls, should have something up his sleeve.
Considering Kansas City’s secondary will showcase two rookie corners against the likes of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, expect Spagnolo to dial up his fair share of pressure on Hurts. Keep in mind, the third-year signal caller ranks No. 29 in dropback EPA (out of 39 qualifiers) against five or more pass rushers this season.
Couple that with the fifth-worst EPA/play against zone blitzes, allowing the Chiefs’ defensive backs to simultaneously keep an eye on Hurts because of his rushing prowess. Kansas City generated the second-highest pressure rate via that setup, too.
Granted, the Chiefs blitzed just above league average (24.2%). It’s also up against arguably the NFL’s premier offensive line. But if it’s able to force Hurts into difficult throws, especially with a sore throwing shoulder, there’s a higher probability that he’ll undergo some struggles.
Moreover, the Eagles’ offense showcases the fourth highest rushing percentage across the league. You certainly have to account for their positive game script for much of the season, which could even indicate an inflated point spread. However, their ground game doesn’t necessarily slow down while facing with a deficit.
Therefore, Hurts’ arm may be limited from this angle as well. It doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are surrendering the second-highest EPA per carry during the playoffs, either, against the top-rated rushing offense.
Related: Super Bowl MVP Odds
Mo Nuwwarah: U4.5 Chiefs With A Rush (+250)
Let’s get weird and gun for a big payout.
This price just strikes me as way wrong for a situation where we could potentially see as few as three rushers carry the ball. Granted, that’s unlikely, but consider.
The Chiefs may dress as many as three RBs here. Even if they do, only two are nearly certain to get carries: Jerrick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was activated but isn’t certain to get burn — not with how bad he’s been and how useful McKinnon and Pacheco have shown themselves. Ronald Jones II should be an afterthought here if he even dresses.
Even if three Chiefs RBs get carries — no sure thing — the Chiefs must still find two more rushers. Patrick Mahomes would be all but certain to carry the ball in most cases but keep in mind he still has a sore ankle. He’s been clearly limited on the rushes he has tried since sustaining an injury, only running in total emergencies.
Still, he’s likely to get a rush which brings us up to about 3.5 rushers. That still leaves room for a jet sweep or a TE sneak — even with Andy Reid seemingly leaning away from the latter recently. He put the ball in Mahomes or Pacheco’s hands on the short yardage situations against the Bengals.
And we’re getting +250 on the under here? I like this play and +280 on under 9.5 rushers for the game. Both of them are available on the Caesars Sportsbook prop menu.
Brett Gibbons: Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD Scorer (+360) And Boston Scott ATD (+500)
No, I don’t anticipate both of these hitting. That would be a nice payday, though. Instead, I’m taking a golf approach and peppering a couple options with the anticipation that one gets in the end zone.
First off, both of these numbers dropped over the two weeks after NFL Championship Weekend. I punched them in at Kenneth Gainwell +370 and Boston Scott +550, but there’s no reason to curb the bet now. Currently, the best odds exist at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Touchdowns are variable, but Scott’s found the end zone in three straight games. He received seven carriers per game over those last three — up from his 3.2 carriers per game from Weeks 1-17. Gainwell’s carries are also dramatically up, with him receiving 26 carries over their last two games — 49% of his total season workload (53).
Gainwell’s carries didn’t come entirely in garbage time, either, with five of 17 opportunities coming in the first half. His snap count increased in the playoffs as well, with 14.6% of his season snaps coming over the last two games.
The logic here is that I really have no idea which running back other than Miles Sanders is going to find the end zone. But in five of the Eagles’ last eight games — and three straight — someone else has. The odds on each player make it worthwhile firing on both for your Super Bowl best bets.
Beat The Closing Line: Super Bowl Betting Preview
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