Super Bowl 59 QBs: Evaluating Mahomes, Hurts Props Market & Betting Odds
No position in sports receives quite the scrutiny and attention as the NFL quarterback. A good quarterback wins you games, but a great quarterback wins you a Super Bowl. And, in the case of the Kansas City Chiefs, one of the greatest cements your dynasty. Patrick Mahomes suits up for his fourth Super Bowl in five seasons, a feat only Tom Brady and Jim Kelly had previously accomplished. Across the way, Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles look to break the Chiefs' attempt at pulling off the first-ever three-peat in Super Bowl history.
Let's look at how Mahomes and Hurts size up — against their prop market, opposing defense, and each other. Super Bowl 59 odds are out, and the game will kick off Sunday, Feb. 9, at 6:30 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Props
Browse Super Bowl player prop offerings for Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes below. Click anywhere to place a bet.
A 2024 Regression
Mahomes put up career-worst numbers in completion rate, yards, touchdowns, and more in 2024. And yet, the Kansas City Chiefs marched their way to a 15-1 regular season record under him despite not scoring more than 30 points a single time. That lack of offensive output was balanced by a dynamite defense and 12-0 record in one-score games. On Feb. 9, with or without a league-breaking offense, Mahomes and the Chiefs play for a third consecutive Super Bowl victory.
In the last two years under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, Mahomes regressed over 1,600 yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 12 points on his passer rating. That's not to say it's Nagy's fault — the Chiefs lost a premier deep threat in Tyreek Hill, and the offensive line certainly regressed — but the trend is notable. Mahomes takes on plenty of blame himself. This season, 237 pressures turned into a career-high 41 sacks and a career-worst 17.3% pressure-to-sack ratio. Mahomes had 10 balls batted down (his highest rate), and only 3.3% of his attempts were graded as "big time" (also due to fewer downfield shots).
But after torching the league for nearly 50 touchdowns three times, Mahomes settled into a more sustainable role. He is a killer when it matters and a master of the offensive system all other times.
Outlook Vs. Eagles' Defense
After a disaster of a 2023 season, Philadelphia completely revamped its defense. The Eagles added veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and drafted even more dominant players, fixing the secondary almost overnight. Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay, and Cooper DeJean are as good a trio of corners as you'll find in the NFL. Up front, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis almost single-handedly wreck game plans. Of the 11 starters on defense, only Slay is older than 30.
Mahomes has his work cut out for him through the air. Philadelphia ranks third in dropback EPA and second in passing success rate allowed. Aging commodities like DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce and an additional receiver returning from injury, Hollywood Brown, go against one of the most athletic defenses in the NFL.
The Chiefs share a division with two top passing defenses, Denver and Los Angeles, and played another, Houston, twice. In five games against those defenses, Mahomes averaged 231.6 yards per game, failed to throw multiple touchdowns in any of them, and averaged 13% fewer points than the season average. Coincidentally, the Chiefs also went 5-0 in such games.
Mahomes may have to turn to other targets as Kelce matches up with two of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL: Zach Baun and Oren Burks.
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl QB Prop to Consider
Banking on completing and yardage in the Super Bowl can be complex. With a long offseason ahead, players have no reservations about leaving everything on the field to win a championship — that could mean lots of attempts for Mahomes or little yardage, depending on the game script.
After the AFC championship game, sportsbooks adjusted the total for this game by four points. Hypothetical odds released by FanDuel Sportsbook lined an Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl with 45.5 points; the total opened at 49.5. This could be a slight overreaction to a record-setting 55 points by the Eagles (seven rushing touchdowns) and a season-high 32 from the Chiefs. Also note the discrepancy in the red zone: the Chiefs scored touchdowns on just 54% of RZ trips (22nd), while the Eagles held opponents to touchdowns on 48% of RZ trips (fifth).
One thing Mahomes does exhibit is a propensity to use his legs in big games. In the regular season, Mahomes didn't attempt more than six rushes once. Through two playoff games? Seven attempts versus Houston and 11 attempts versus Buffalo. In his last two Super Bowl starts, Mahomes rushed six and nine times with better pass protection.
- Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl QB prop pick: OVER 5.5 rush attempts (-137)
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl Props
Browse Super Bowl player prop offerings for Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts below. Click anywhere to place a bet.
Taking a Different Approach
Following an offseason filled with running back discourse — and a year after several high-profile RBs met to discuss the position — the Eagles rode a dominant run game to the Super Bowl. While Saquon Barkley was at the forefront of that, rushing for over 2,000 yards, Hurts contributed plenty. He finished third in QB rushing yards behind 1,000-yard seasons from Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels but led the position with 18 touchdowns; only James Cook and Derrick Henry found the end zone more times.
Kellen Moore crafted this offense around Hurts' strengths. Via play action, Hurts' completion rate (adjusted for drops and throwaways) climbed to a staggering 90.6%. Moore also nearly doubled Hurts' number of gap scheme rushes, kept a similar number of zone reads, and continued to utilize the famous tush push whenever the opportunity arose. Players' roles were evident, particularly for TE Dallas Goedert and WR A.J. Brown. Specialization worked exceptionally well with both players.
As a result, the Eagles finished with the most explosive rushing offense in the NFL (rush EPA, 40+ yard plays).
Outlook Vs. Chiefs' Defense
Perhaps not eye-popping on charts, there's only one way to go 15-2 without scoring more than 30 points once — fielding an elite defense. Removing a Week 18 game where KC rested its starters, just one team managed 30 points on this defense, the Bills (twice). Where the Chiefs buckled down was in the red zone, holding opponents to just a 53.3% touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line (10th).
A concern arises with the health of Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson. Luckily, both centers have an extra week to rest and heal, but they dealt with injuries in the NFC championship game. Jurgens missed the start due to a back injury but did come in when Dickerson exited the game with an injury of his own. Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones leads the NFL in pass rush grade for interior defensive linemen, recording seven sacks and 60 pressures.
How effective the Brotherly Shove is depends on how healthy Philadelphia is inside and how well the interior holds up against Jones and the Chiefs' defensive front. Failed late-down conversions in short yardage could spell disaster for this Eagles offense.
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl QB Prop to Consider
Even as a slight underdog, the Eagles project to play in a negative game script. Negative game scripts typically equate to an increase in passing volume. The Chiefs' likely No. 1 priority this game is to limit Barkley and Hurts' damage on the ground, especially on late downs. Moore has done an excellent job crafting an offensive scheme around his players' strengths rather than forcing his players to play in a set system.
That scheme can change from game to game, especially with multiple weeks to prepare. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see the Eagles attempt a couple of passes on late downs and short yardage to take advantage of stacked boxes and overplays to the run.
He threw multiple touchdowns in three of Hurts' last five complete games. The exceptions? A snowy divisional round game against the Rams and the NFC Championship, where the Eagles rushed for a playoff-record seven touchdowns. In recent average outcomes, Hurts came away with multiple passing touchdowns.
- Jalen Hurts Super Bowl QB prop pick: OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+180)
Super Bowl QB Comparison: Mahomes Vs. Hurts
Patrick Mahomes Metric (NFL rank) Jalen Hurts 94.4 (15th) Passer rating 103.9 (5th) 245.5 (10th) Pass yards/game 193.5 (28th) 6.9 (42nd) aDOT (yards) 8.1 (t-21st) 20.3 Rush yards/game 41.8 632 (2nd) Attempts 430 (20th) 77.1% (14th) Adj. completion rate 80.4% (1st) 32 Total touchdowns 39 4.5% (17th) Passing TD rate 5% (11th) 11 (t-30th) Interceptions 5 (t-6th) 17.3% (15th) P2S rate 23% (34th)
aDOT: Average depth of target.
P2S rate: Pressure-to-sack ratio. How many times was each quarterback sacked versus how many pressures did they face?
Active NFL QBs With a Super Bowl Victory
Player Super Bowl wins Last Patrick Mahomes (KC) 3 2024 Matthew Stafford (LAR) 1 2022 Russell Wilson (PIT) 1 2014 Joe Flacco (IND) 1 2013 Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) 1 2011
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