Biggest Super Bowl 58 Liability: Are Sportsbooks Rooting For Chiefs Or 49ers?

, , ,
Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
super bowl liability 2024 SF KC

Sports bettors aren’t the only ones sweating out Super Bowl 58 odds. Just as your pro and recreational bettors cling to each snap with hopes of their tickets cashing, so do sportsbooks and oddsmakers. When a particular team takes a lot of action – action not balanced out by other teams – that creates a liability for sportsbooks. The upcoming Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers is no different. One side poses a heavy liability for BetMGM Sportsbook.

BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini spoke with TheLines.com Managing Editor Stephen Andress. There was no question about it: oddsmakers at BetMGM are crossing their fingers for one outcome.

Get up to $150 Paid Back in Bonus Bets
1
Bet $5
get $150
In Bonus Bets
Bet $5 Get $150 Instantly in Bonus Bets*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Bonus Code: THELINES

49ers Pose Biggest Super Bowl Liability For BetMGM

Before the start of NFL Championship weekend, Cipollini joined Andress on the Behind The Lines podcast. Although the Super Bowl contestants weren’t yet set, Cipollini was clear on the most significant Super Bowl liability at BetMGM a 49ers victory.

“We were probably hoping that one of the Lions or 49ers didn’t make [the Super Bowl],” Cipollini said ahead of the NFC Championship Game. “Because those were our two biggest liabilities remaining.”

Of course, both the Lions and 49ers played in the conference title, with the 49ers erasing a 17-point halftime deficit for a 34-31 victory. Cipollini explained the Lions’ result over the Buccaneers was the biggest hit BetMGM took in what would be a losing Divisional Round Sunday. The reason? Michigan is one of the book’s larger markets, and native Michiganders held no punches loading up on the Lions this year.

While Detroit was a Day-1 liability, San Francisco’s liability comes in a different form. In fact, on the digital trading side (BetMGM’s sportsbook app and site), the Niners aren’t a liability at all.

When we get to the retail [books], that’s where the 49ers have taken a lot of liability,” Cipollini explained. “A large chunk of that comes out of Nevada, too. Which is probably more – since there’s no mobile betting in Nevada – 49er fans that do end up betting, go to Las Vegas.”

Chiefs Take Early Action Over 49ers

After opening as +3 (-120) underdogs on Super Bowl 58 opening odds, the Chiefs immediately took credible action. Less than 12 hours after opening, Chiefs odds dropped to +1 at BetMGM. Although they command just 55% of the earliest bets, 84% of early money falls on the Chiefs somewhere between +3 and +1.

The Super Bowl is one of a handful of annual sporting events where public action influences lines. But it appears this early action comes from outside the public realm. While it’s unclear how many “sharp” bettors got in on the early number, it’s clear large wagers are backing Kansas City. Now at -1, perhaps more tickets come in on 49ers odds. If and when they do, it’s important to watch how traders move the line. Should it move very little (or not at all), it’ll be clearer what constitutes the “sharp” side versus the “square” (or public) side.

Of course, being on the “sharper” side only goes so far. Be sure to keep up-to-date with TheLines’ extensive coverage of Super Bowl 58 odds to help boost your handicap and confidence when betting on the Big Game.

Super Bowl 58 kicks off Sunday, Feb. 11, at 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT. Catch the game on CBS or Paramount Plus, broadcast from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Super Bowl 58 Odds: Chiefs Vs. 49ers

Compare Super Bowl odds from the best NFL betting sites below. Click on odds anywhere to place a bet.

Rank
Sportsbooks
Bonus
Features
Play
1
UP TO $1,000
In Bonus Bets
First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000, or Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Sign Up, Deposit and Play Today in VA!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Use Bonus Code: THELINESVA
2
BET $50 
GET $200
If Your First Bet Wins
Bet $50 Get $200 in Bonus Bets
Get Betway Boosts & Enhanced Odds
To Claim: Click Play Now
3
Bet $5
get $150
In Bonus Bets
Bet $5 Get $150 Instantly in Bonus Bets*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Bonus Code: THELINES
4
$1,000 FIRST BET
On Caesars
Up to $1,000 Back as a Bonus Bet if Your Bet Loses
Stream NFL Games In-App for Free
21+ Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Promo Code: THELINES1000
5
Bet $5
Get $150
If Your Bet Wins
Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins
Available on Desktop, Android & iOS
To Claim: Click Play Now
6
$100 bonus
No Regret First Bet
Up to $100 Back if Your First Bet Doesn’t Hit
Get Your Bets Boosted
To Claim: Click Play Now
7
$500 BONUS
2nd Chance Bet
Up To $500 in Bet Credits
ONLY 1x Play Through!
Use Exclusive Bonus Code: LINESRIV

21+ in most states to use sportsbook bonus codes. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

RELATED ARTICLES