Super Bowl Safety Odds: Will 49ers Vs. Chiefs Deliver 10th Edition Of Popular Big Game Prop Bet?
Among Super Bowl 58 odds, bettors typically focus most of their handicapping efforts on the point spread, moneyline, and total. To a degree, it’s understandable. Why wouldn’t you want action on the most popular betting markets in the season finale? Conversely, Super Bowl props, like the rare safety, may warrant a wager with your weekend pizza fund. Ahead of the 49ers vs. Chiefs, let’s delve into how often a safety bet has cashed in the NFL.
Super Bowl 58: safety odds
Likelihood Of Safety?
On the surface, it adds up. Patrick Mahomes, the two-time Super Bowl MVP, is one of the premier escape artists — even near his own end zone. Yet, Brock Purdy, Mahomes’ counterpart, has showcased his mobility outside of the pocket in both of San Fran’s playoff wins.
Moreover, Kansas City’s pass protection is a liability. For one, offensive tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor slot into the bottom 25 of their respective positional rankings (per Pro Football Focus). There’s also left guard All-Pro Joe Thuney (pec), who could miss a second straight game.
Despite manufacturing the league’s third-lowest blitz rate, the 49ers churned out the ninth-most sacks (48). It’s a product of their ability to apply pressure with just four pass rushers. There’s always the chance that Nick Bosa & Co. rack up a holding call inside of the Chiefs’ own goal line, resulting in a safety. Unsurprisingly, Kansas City has accrued the second-most offensive holding penalties in the NFL.
Among Super Bowl props odds above, San Francisco has an implied probability of 4.8% to score a safety.
Super Bowl safety history
In the previous 57 Puppy Bowl Post-Game Shows, there have been a total of nine safeties (15.8%), good for an average of one every 6.3 games. There were only five safeties in the first 42 tilts. Nevertheless, this wager cashed in during four of six contests from 2009 to 2014, including a run of three straight (2012-14).
The first one in that bunch came via Super Bowl 43. With 3:04 remaining, the Cardinals cut the Steelers’ lead to 20-16 when Pittsburgh center Justin Hartwig was tagged with a holding call in his own end zone. Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald subsequently hooked up for a go-ahead score. It goes as one of the most unnoticed touchdowns in Super Bowl history, thanks to what happened next.
With 42 seconds left on the clock, the Steelers responded with Ben Roethlisberger’s game-winning touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes, who was later named the game’s MVP. It officially put Hartwig’s miscue in the rearview mirror, too.
Super Bowl Podcast: Beat The Closing Number
- You can subscribe to the audio-only version of the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
NFL betting promos
If you’re in a state with legal sports wagering, TheLines has you covered with the best sportsbook promo codes below. Click on any of the following promos and bonus codes to get started.
21+ at most sportsbooks; gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER