Chiefs Vs. 49ers Alternate Player Props: Potential Super Bowl 58 Longshot Ladder Bets
Alternate player props will be an enticing option for some among NFL Super Bowl 58 Odds. Then again, determining the most valuable ones across NFL betting sites is a tricky task. That’s why TheLines.com is here to help. Here are plus-money player props I like if you typically like to use some extra pocket cash on longshot same-game parlays. Below, we’ll also explain the concept and strategy around Super Bowl ladder bets and why 49ers TE George Kittle may be a good candidate.
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What Are Ladder Bets?
In an ever-evolving world of sports betting, a new approach that is growing in popularity is a ladder bet. With fresh minds entering the betting arena, innovative ideas are born, and one such idea that’s gaining traction is this.
The concept behind the ladder or escalator bet is simple. It involves placing bets on multiple alternate player prop lines for the same athlete. For example, betting a player to have 50+ yards, 60+, 70+, etc. with each line offering longer odds. As you ascend this betting ladder, the potential rewards exponentially increase.
When you’re exploring player props in major sports like the NFL, NBA, or MLB, you delve deep into research, projections, and analysis to pinpoint the best angles for your bets. Sometimes, you stumble upon a player whose potential output is severely underestimated by the sportsbooks. That’s precisely when the ladder method could be considered.
Ready to Climb the Ladder? Here’s How: To embark on a ladder bet, you first must identify a player prop that you believe will greatly exceed expectations. Let’s take an example with Patrick Mahomes passing yards prop for the Super Bowl:
- Mahomes Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Mahomes 275+ Passing Yards (+114)
- Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards (+210)
Suppose you’re confident that Mahomes is set for a stellar game and will throw for at least 300 passing yards. In that case, you visit your sportsbook and place bets on the over for each line, watching the odds soar with each rung of the prop ladder. This method not only increases your potential payouts but also rewards your in-depth research.
potential Super Bowl 58 Ladder Bets
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 10+ Receptions
While the 49ers have been generally stout against defending TEs this season, they have allowed a few ceiling games. Four opposing TEs against the 49ers have had 10+ target games. In two postseason games against the 49ers this year, tight ends have been targeted 25 times. They also allowed the 12th-most catches to the position.
Kelce has been getting fed the ball this postseason, commanding a target on 27.3% of his routes and seeing 29.7% of Kansas City’s overall targets. We are seeking a ceiling outcome with this ladder on Kelce’s receptions. Kelce has gone for 10+ receptions in six of his last 15 playoff games, so the upside is certainly there. Here is what a ladder of Kelce having 10+ receptions should look like:
Kelce’s current odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are listed in parentheses.
- 7+ Receptions (-154)
- 8+ Receptions (+110)
- 9+ Receptions (+178)
- 10+ Receptions (+270)
George Kittle 110+ Receiving Yards
This is a picture-perfect “ladder” spot I’d like to bet. While the tough matchup is why the Over/Under for Kittle is low, the ceiling for the 49ers TE is sky-high in any matchup. Kittle’s volume has been all over the place all season, especially with Deebo Samuel healthy, but he has consistently been a big-play option.
Kittle led all tight ends with 16 catches of at least 21 yards during the regular season, four more than the three TEs in second place. He had a catch of at least 21 yards in 12 of 18 games (66.7%), including three total in two playoff games. Kittle can take a pass to the house on any given play.
When looking at Kittle’s box score results in 2023, here are the results:
| Week | Opponent | Receptions | Yards | TD | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @PIT | 3 | 19 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | @LAR | 3 | 30 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | NYG | 7 | 90 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | ARI | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | DAL | 3 | 67 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | @CLE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | @MIN | 5 | 78 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | CIN | 9 | 149 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | BYE | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @JAX | 3 | 116 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | TB | 8 | 89 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | @SEA | 3 | 19 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | @PHI | 4 | 68 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | SEA | 3 | 76 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | @ARI | 2 | 54 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | BAL | 7 | 126 | 0 | 10 |
| 17 | @WAS | 3 | 29 | 0 | 4 |
| DIV | GB | 4 | 81 | 1 | 7 |
| NFC | DET | 2 | 27 | 0 | 3 |
Kittle’s current odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are listed in parentheses.
- 11x Games Of 50+ Receiving Yards (-102)
- 10x Games Of 60+ Receiving Yards (+158)
- 8x Games Of 70+ Receiving Yards (+230)
- 6x Games Of 80+ Receiving Yards (+350)
- 4x Games Of 90+ Receiving Yards (+490)
- 3x Games of 100+ Receiving Yards (+640)
- 3x Games Of 110+ Receiving Yards (+880)
What we are looking for with ladders is a player’s ceiling. Kittle certainly has displayed throughout the season that he can have games that cover every step of this ladder.
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Crafting a Winning Strategy for Ladder Props
When it comes to laddering player props, there are essential factors to ponder before placing your wagers:
- Implied Probability: It’s crucial to understand the implied probability associated with each event. Most player props typically open at (-110) odds, representing an implied probability of 52.38%. To turn a long-term profit, you need to win bets at a higher rate than these implied odds.
- Player Props to Target: Focus on player props with outcomes like receiving yards totals to reduce debates regarding subjective statistical categories. These are more straightforward to navigate and can lead to exciting wins.
The ladder method can be a game-changer in your sports betting journey. It not only adds a layer of excitement but also enhances your chances of substantial rewards.
Best of luck if you decide to place any Super Bowl ladder bets!
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