Super Bowl LVI Betting Guide: Will Underdog Bengals’ Run Continue?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on February 13, 2022 - Last Updated on February 14, 2022
Super Bowl Betting

Before we get to Super Bowl odds, a note on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Their Super Bowl betting push isn’t just a fun story. It’s historic.

Cincinnati is the first team since the 2016-17 New England Patriots to cover seven straight matchups against the spread — en route to the big game. Of course, Tom Brady backers (-3) cashed their final bets of the season too, as the Pats overcame a 28-3 second-half deficit to win 34-28 in overtime.

But can the Rams do enough to ensure that the same streak doesn’t repeat itself? Let’s break down Super Bowl LVI, along with my favorite player props. Click the odds below to bet on the game.

Claim Your FanDuel March Madness Bonus! Bet $5 on any game, win $150 in site credit.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Breakdown

Make no mistake about the Bengals’ run. There’s also headline-worthy luck involved, as Cincinnati became the first team in NFL history to lose net yards per play (YPP) in its first three playoff games and advance to the Super Bowl.

Now, the Rams were outgained in this metric against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game while Los Angeles coach Sean McVay nearly cost his team with a pair of head-scratching challenges.

For context, I won’t have a full-game side or total wager. If Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah (MCL sprain) was healthy, I might’ve given Cincinnati a look to hang within a key number. Keep in mind, the Rams have been torched over the middle of the field because of Raheem Morris’ two-deep zone scheme while lacking sound linebackers in coverage. If Uzomah finds a way to suit up, as expected, he’ll likely be limited or a decoy.

That still could mean a big showing for wideout Tee Higgins, who’s made a living in that respect during the second half of the season. His yardage prop sits at O/U 70.5, and his MVP odds are a consensus . It may appear to be a crazy wager, yet LA cornerback Jalen Ramsey will likely shadow Ja’Marr Chase throughout, putting Higgins in an even more valuable position were the Bengals to somehow pull off the upset.

Regarding the total, both of these units struggle with their red zone efficiency, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in touchdown percentage inside the 20-yard line. The Rams, which own the fifth-rated defensive DVOA, will be the toughest unit that Burrow has faced all season as well. I’d consider a first-half under play, as we should see each one make adjustments over the final 30 minutes.

As of early Sunday afternoon, FanDuel is offering under 24 (-120), which is worth a wager.

Super Bowl Betting: Prop Value

How To Find The Best Super Bowl Prop Bet Odds

TheLines’ Brett Gibbons wrote up a crash course on how to navigate the thousands of prop bets offered for the Super Bowl, including how to find the best odds and prices using our NFL prop finder tool.

Favorite Super Bowl Props

Let’s compare prices for these wagers at both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. These bets were placed on Thursday evening.

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Burrow To Throw An Interception
Bet now
-145
Bet now
-158
Kupp Longest Reception
Bet now
o28.5 (-135)
Bet now
o31.5 (-113)

Burrow To Throw An Interception (over 0.5; -132)

This one grabbed my attention first. Cincinnati’s offensive line struggled even with right tackle Riley Reiff (ankle) in the lineup, but its concerns grew without him. Overall, the Bengals tallied the league’s third-lowest pass block win rate, which tracks how often linemen retain their assignments for at least 2.5 seconds.

How does that impact the likelihood of Burrow throwing one to the other side? Well, the Rams boast the top-ranked pass rush win rate across the NFL. Anticipate Los Angeles’ front-four producing plenty of heat on the second-year quarterback, who racked up the highest interception rate (2.7%) among his peers with at least 14 pass attempts per game.

Cooper Kupp Longest Reception (over 28.5 receiving yards; -135)

The Rams’ No. 1 wideout leads all receivers in yards after the catch (YAC) this season, and he’ll be up against a Cincinnati secondary that surrendered the seventh-highest dropback success rate (SR) in the postseason. Kupp isn’t known for deep routes within McVay’s offense, yet it represents the top option to attack his yardage because of his prowess to accumulate chunk plays in space.

  • SR showcases whether a play is successful if a team gains:
    • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
    • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
    • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

Enjoy the game, stay up-to-date on TheLines Super Bowl betting strategy in our Discord community and follow TheLines on Twitter.

Eli’s Super Bowl Bets

WagersOdds
1H u24-120
Burrow Interception-132
Kupp longest reception o28.5-135

Staff Super Bowl Bets

Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich