How TheLines Staff Is Betting $100 On Super Bowl 56

Written By Staff on February 11, 2022 - Last Updated on February 13, 2022
super bowl best bets

Sometimes the wisdom of the crowd can come in handy with Super Bowl best bets. With so many betting options, more than any other NFL game, it’s easy to miss some with solid value.

That’s our goal here. We’ve assembled members of TheLines staff to share how they’d wager $100 on Super Bowl 56 bets, a nice round number you can proportionally apply to your bankroll to give you an idea how how we’re attacking this game.

Perhaps there are a few bets below you hadn’t seen yet or thought of betting, or will just get confirmation of a direction you were leaning.

Enjoy!

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Stephen Andress

  • $60 Rams -3.5 (-110, Caesars)
  • $20 Rams total sacks Over 3.5 (+105 DraftKings)
  • $20 risk-free SGP (+1966 FanDuel, must opt-in for risk free): Rams -12.5, Joe Mixon Over 24.5 receiving yards, Cam Akers Under 16.5 receiving yards, Joe Burrow Over 276.5 passing yards)

TheLines Podcast host Matt Brown will hate these bets. In my opinion, the Cincinnati Bengals are the luckiest conference champion in NFL history. Cincy is the first team in the Super Bowl era to win three playoff games but lose yards per play in each of those game and still advance to the Super Bowl. I think it’s crazy talk for the Rams to be the same -3.5 favorites as they were against the 49ers. That line move has locked that in as one of my favorite Super Bowl best bets. I’d still bet Rams -4 too.

The sack bet also reflects the glaring disadvantage the Bengals will have against the Rams’ defensive front. I believe the Bengals will both struggle to run the ball and protect Burrow in the passing game. LA ranks No. 1 in both run stop win rate and pass rush win rate. The Bengals ranked 30th in the regular season in pass block win rate, which tracks how often linemen retain their assignments for at least 2.5 seconds.

As for the same-game parlay, opt-in on FanDuel Sportsbook. You get a risk-free SGP up to $20. FD is the place to do this, as they refund in site credit vs. a free bet for a failed SGP. Just a fun Super Bowl dart throw. Mixon has gone over that receiving yards number in five straight games with the Bengals becoming more pass heavy. Sony Michel has eaten into Cam Akers’ third-down work, thus the Under there. Cincinnati’s situation neutral pass rate over the past six weeks should put the Over 276.5 in range for Burrow passing yards as well, despite the pressure he’s going to see.

Eli Hershkovich

  • Burrow to throw an interception (-132; FanDuel Sportsbook)

I’ll have more of a deep-dive breakdown of this matchup as well, but this one is my favorite pregame bet for the big game, as I won’t be betting the side or total.

Look for the Rams’ defensive front to throw plenty of heat Burrow’s way, as the Bengals present the league’s third-worst pass block win rate. Among the quarterbacks with a minimum of 14 pass attempts per game, Burrow tallied the highest interception rate this season (2.7%). Expect at least one to go Los Angeles’ way, and I’m willing to pay the juice for it.

Mo Nuwwarah

  • $47.25 Rams ML (-189, Caesars)
  • $27.50 Cam Akers Under 64.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
  • $22 Ja’Marr Chase Under 78.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
  • $3.25 Van Jefferson MVP (+10000, FanDuel)

I’m going to start with some Rams moneyline, -189 at Caesars Sportsbook. I think they are likely winners here and should be more like -250 against a team that has been outgained by YPP in each of their playoff games.

Along the same lines, I’m expecting the Rams to do a good job containing Ja’Marr Chase. Jalen Ramsey thrives on the type of contested catches on which Chase has been feasting. Right now number is 78.5 but I’m expecting an even higher number by the time Sunday rolls around so don’t be afraid to wait on that one.

I also expect the Rams to mix and match their running back usage. Cam Akers split time pretty equally with Sony Michel with the season on the line, trailing the 49ers in the second half It sounds like Darrell Henderson might even get some burn. So, I like Akers u64.5 rushing yards.

Not exactly among Super Bowl best bets, but I expect Van Jefferson to go over his total of 29.5 receiving yards as well. So just for fun to get a big payout prop in there, let’s take Jefferson +10000 to win MVP. He can definitely rip of a couple of long Tds in what I expect to be a game that goes under the total.

Brett Gibbons

  • $20 Super Bowl MVP Matthew Stafford (+135, BetMGM)
  • $20 Cooper Kupp to score TD anytime & Rams to win (+105, DraftKings)
  • $20 Odell Beckham Jr. to make first reception (+550, DraftKings)
  • $10 Bengals total field goals made: O1.5 (-115, DraftKings)
  • $30 Same Game Parlay (+181 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams ML (-198) Joe Burrow OVER 276.5 passing yards (-114)

For the complete analysis on the Same Game Parlay, check out our writeup here. The other bets are all on props which correlate under the assumption that the Rams will win this game. The winning quarterback more often than not wins Super Bowl MVP, with 31/55 (-129 implied odds) having done so; at +100, there’s a clear odds gap should the Rams win the game.

Cooper Kupp just completed a historic season, the greatest ever statistically for a wide receiver and it’s clear Stafford is going to hyper-target him again. However, Odell Beckham Jr. has seen the first target of the game in four of their last five outings, making his +550 price on first reception enticing. Finally, this game will come down to defense and the Bengals are going to kick some field goals. The Bengals attempted the seventh-fewest fourth downs this season, meaning Zac Taylor is going to opt to kick more often.

Matt Burke

  • $20 Super Bowl MVP Matthew Stafford (+135, BetMGM)
  • $20 Rams Over 5.5 First quarter points (-115, DraftKings)
  • $20 Ja’Marr Chase Under 79.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
  • $20 Cooper Kupp Under 105.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars) – $20 bet, potential profit $18.18
  • $20 Blue Gatorade (+300 at BetMGM)

When it comes to Super Bowl MVP, this one is going to be heavy on the narrative whether it’s the old dude finally breaking through to grab a ring (Stafford) or the league’s next big thing arriving early (Burrow). Voter fatigue obviously won’t be in play here considering this is the first Super Bowl go-round for Stafford and Burrow. I like the Rams in this game, therefore Stafford is my choice here among Super Bowl best bets for MVP.

Sean McVay is a master when it comes to building a lead, and I trust LA to either find the end zone or hit on a couple of field goals in the first quarter. The Rams scored 10 points in the first quarter against Tampa in the Divisional Round and posted a TD against Arizona in the Wild Card round. We also just saw how Cincinnati’s defense is prone to a slow start in the AFC title game, so I like Rams Over 5.5 first quarter points.

Ja’Marr Chase only has 20 NFL games under his belt, but he already owns the title of the biggest “boom or bust” WR in the league. The LSU product went seven straight games during the season without a 100-yard catch day but that streak ended with a 7 catch, 125-yard performance against Baltimore on Dec. 26. That was followed up by his incredible 266-yard outing against the Chiefs on Jan. 2. He had 100-plus yard days in the first two rounds of the playoffs but only had 54 yards in the AFC title game. Chase has mostly struggled against the scheme that Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris runs (the Broncos, Chargers and Bears employ similar defensive strategies), and I expect Jalen Ramsey to play up to his All-Pro capabilities. I’ll take the under on Chase receiving yards.

Cooper Kupp will, of course, be heard from in this game considering he made a legit run at league MVP this season and that he has an unreal 325 yards receiving in his last two games. But his receiving total prop number is just a bit too high for my liking (105.5). The Bengals limited “store brand Cooper Kupp,” Hunter Renfrow, to just 58 yards in the Wild Card round. And Cincy did a decent enough job on Tyreek Hill (78 yards) in the AFC title game. I like Kupp to go slightly under.

The Gatorade bath prop is always a fun one, and I like Blue – part of the Rams’ team colors and also last year’s surprise winning color – to drench McVay’s gelled up pompadour at the end of the night.

John Haslbauer

  • $30 Super Bowl MVP: Any position other than QB (+230, FanDuel)
  • $25 Super Bowl Boxes: 0-0 End of Quarter Score (+290, DraftKings)
  • $15 Gatorade Color: Blue (+490, FanDuel) – $15
  • $15 First Sack: Von Miller (+610, FanDuel)
  • $15 Player with longest reception: Van Jefferson (+1000, DraftKings)

I expect the Rams are going to win the Super Bowl, and that it won’t be because of Matthew Stafford. Maybe Cooper Kupp will have 100 yards and touchdown, or Aaron Donald will get himself a Sack Fumble TD. There are just so many playmakers beyond Matthew Stafford on this Rams team that can take over a game.

The Super Bowl boxes/squares bet is a hedge against my own boxes this year, assuming I don’t get the coveted 0-0. It always hits, and it could serve as a nice emotional hedge if we get a boring 0-0 slow start to the Super Bowl.

The Gatorade, in my opinion, a must-bet Super Bowl prop, because no matter how wrong the rest of your prop sheet is throughout the game, there is always hope with the Gatorade Color prop at the very end. Draft Kings has Clear/Water as the favorite at +250, so this is a pure value play for me with FanDuel hanging a juicy +490.

As for the Von Miller sack prop, I expect Aaron Donald to be doubled throughout the game, which should open the door for the Rams’ next best pass rusher in Miller versus a very bad Bengals O-Line.

Lastly, Van Jefferson is on this roster for one reason, and that’s to space the field with go routes. I’d be too afraid to take an over/under receiving prop on him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had one reception for 75 yards in this game.

Fairway Jay

  • $55 Rams -4 (-112 FanDuel)
  • $25 Rams more first downs (-150 Caesars)
  • $20 Odell Beckham – Over 5.5 receptions (+115 DraftKings)

I’m bullish on the Rams among Super Bowl best bets with a number of match-up edges and stronger play than the Bengals. That’s especially true at the point of attack with the Rams defensive front and run defense the most dominant of all teams in the playoffs. Los Angeles has allowed 61 rushing yards or less and 20 rushing attempts or less in all three games.

The Rams offense has also rushed the ball 32.3 times per game in the playoffs while the Bengals average 23.3 and really struggled at Tennessee. These are proven, winning fundamentals and 4-0 SU/ATS in the playoff for teams that run the ball 30 or more times and the Rams have done it twice with 29 rushes in their other win. Teams in this year’s playoffs that run the ball less than 23 times per game are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and it was a greater than 82% losing situation during the regular season.

Now factor in the Rams stronger regular season schedule and division than the Bengals, along with more match-up edges, and I forecast a sizable win margin for the Rams.

Matthew Stafford also looks primed for a big game against the Bengals, who play more man coverage and have a below average pass rush that could be worse with some outside rushers limited this week in practice. Cooper Kupp will get his share of catches, but Odell Beckham has been more involved in the offense with greater impact as some other players have missed action. Beckham has been a bigger threat against man coverage, and has better match-ups against the Bengals than versus the Bucs and 49ers when he caught six passes for 69 yards and 9 for 113 yards.

 

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