Each week during the 2020-21 NFL regular season, The Lines provided a look at movement in betting markets. That analysis continued through the playoffs with Wild Card, Divisional Round and Conference Championship market data.
Now, we’ve reached the pinnacle, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs set to clash in Super Bowl LV. These two teams were the most popular futures bets prior to the 2020-21 season.
Super Bowl 55 odds
Super Bowl betting more popular than ever
How big is Super Bowl 55 betting?
“We’re expecting between three-to-four times the handle that we took last year,” said FanDuel Sportsbook Director of Risk & Trading, John Sheeran.
BetMGM Sports Trader Darren Darby also told TheLines:
“We’re projecting to have eight-figures in handle on the Super Bowl this year. With more than 1,000 props being available on BetMGM for this year’s game, we’re seeing a lot of that action being driven by prop bets.”
Jason Scott, VP of Trading at BetMGM, noted that despite Super Bowl odds having been up for nearly two weeks, 90% of bets on the game will be made this weekend.
Betting market breakdown
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently – and not surprisingly – the popular bet as FanDuel Sportsbook has the Chiefs -3 (-120). FanDuel’s data tracker currently shows the Chiefs taking 66% of the spread bets and 77% of the money (handle).
“Normally we’ll see about 80% of the money between the three core markets – the spread, moneyline and total – in that order,” Sheeran said. “Right now we’re seeing about 5-to-1, or nearly 85% of the spread money on the Chiefs. About 60% of the moneyline action is on the Buccaneers. The total is taking near 15% of the total money wagered, and about 60% bias towards the Over.”
BetMGM took a whopper of a bet on the Buccaneers (+3.5). A $2.3 million wager to win $2 million was placed in Nevada.
“This was a bet we were very happy to receive,” Scott said. “BetMGM had previously written several six figure bets, all on the Chiefs, and the public is certainly behind Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.”
BetMGM says it has twice as much liability on the Buccaneers than the Chiefs. It’s NFL futures showed the Chiefs opened the season at +650 to win it all, and KC is currently -175 with 12% of tickets and 34% of handle. The Buccaneers opened +1600, and Tampa Bay is currently +150 with 9% of tickets and 11% of handle.
BetMGM reports 60% of the point spread bets are on the Chiefs -3 (-115), but Kansas City opened -3.5 and had been at that number until most recently. Nearly 70% of the totals bets are on the Over, which is down from 57.5 to 56.
Super Bowl 55 betting at PointsBet shows more than 630 different markets now live, equating to roughly 3,150 total outcomes.
PointsBet reports that Kansas City initially opened as 3.5-point favorites (-105), but moved quickly to the key number of 3, and the Chiefs have remained a 3-point favorite.
PointsBet Director of Communications Patrick Eichner told TheLines, “We’ve had significantly more action on the Chiefs side, as we’ve seen all week.”
Currently, 77% of spread bets and 90% of spread handle is on the Chiefs.
The total opened at 57.5 (-115/-105) at PointsBet, and it dipped down to 56 by Friday. Eichner noted a small bump in interest for the Under on Thursday, but 76% of both the bets and money wagered is supporting the Over.
PointsBet moneyline bettors are liking Tampa Bay (down to +145), with 56% of bets and 57% of the handle on the Buccaneers to win outright.
The best result for PointsBet would be a Chiefs victory by less than 3 points, and Eichner said, “the book is heavily cheering for Under 56 points scored.”
- PointsBet Sharp Action/Notable Line Movements since Feb. 4:
- Over 7.5 players to have a rushing attempt (from -165 out to -200)
- KC/TB Halftime/Full-time result (bet at +900, now into +700)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 73.5 first quarter passing yards (-115 to -130)
- Notable Bets:
- On Tuesday, PointsBet had a client wager $10,000 that the opening kickoff would not be returned for a TD. Would win $200.
- On Monday, a client wagered $75,000 on KC -3 (-120). Would win $62,500
DraftKings Sportsbook reports more than 70% of the bets and greater than 75% of the spread money is on the Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-113). Both the number of bets and money wagered on the total is better than 73% supporting the Over. However, the Over/Under has dipped down to 56.
The moneyline handle at DraftKings is nearly perfectly split at 50/50 on the Chiefs (-159) and Buccaneers (+140), with Tampa Bay taking more moneyline bets.
“It’s exciting to get to the Super Bowl after a season of uncertainty,” said DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello. “We added prop bets soon after the Conference Championship games, and we’re ready for all the action and in-game betting during the Super Bowl.”
Outside the box
DraftKings has unique prop bets, including a “Doink” Special. It regards any field goal or extra point attempt to hit the uprights or crossbar. Take a look at the odds below and click “Yes” or “No” to bet the prop at DK.
The coin toss prop will also be a popular one at DraftKings, Avello said, as it has low juice of -103 for either heads or tails.
The most-bet prop at DraftKings is Mahomes (-106) to win Most Valuable Player, followed by Brady (+190) to win MVP.
ALSO READ: 5 Fun Super Bowl prop bets to consider