Super Bowl LV Betting Guide: Everything You Need To Know To Bet On Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Written By Nate Weitzer on February 5, 2021
Super Bowl betting Buccaneers Chiefs

The Super Bowl is the most wagered-on singular sporting event each year in the US, and the 2021 version will be no exception. This year’s matchup features Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kansas City will be looking to become the first back-to-back NFL champions since the Patriots accomplished the feat in 2003-04, and the Buccaneers will be looking to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since the 2002 NFL season.

Here is everything you need to know about this year’s game.

The odds

Here are live odds for Super Bowl LV, with line comparisons of the top US sportsbooks.

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The Teams

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated like few other teams in modern sports with only one loss (40-32 vs. Raiders in Week 5) since Week 11 of last season. We’re not counting a 2020 season Week 17 loss to the Chargers in which few Chiefs starters played.

  • Last postseason, KC averaged 39 PPG and were 14 points shy of the all-time record of 131 points set by the 1994 San Francisco 49ers. This season, the Chiefs finished fifth in PPG (29.4) but were first in total YPG (418.3) and were second in Drive Success Rate as determined by metrics from Football Outsiders.
  • The Chiefs failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games before pulling away for a 38-24 win over the Bills in the AFC Championship. They were just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in division games and were 7-5 against non-division foes. The Chiefs were dead even against the Over with a 9-9 record in the regular season and postseason.
  • While KC needed some miraculous offense to erase multiple deficits in the playoffs last year, they’ve been in control throughout most of their games this postseason. A defense that’s vastly improved, particularly in the secondary, deserves credit for the Chiefs dominance.
  • Kansas City held opposing QBs to the fourth-lowest completion rate (62.3%) and forced an interception on 2.8% of passes. Their secondary held the high-scoring Bills to just 4.9 yards per attempt in the AFC title game and their defensive line is generating a solid 6.5% sack rate over their last three games.
  • The Chiefs are vulnerable in rush defense and struggle to stop opponents in the red zone, but have benefited from game flow and forced opposing teams into obvious passing situations, where Tyrann Mathieu and their ball-hawking secondary can thrive.

ALSO READ: 10 Ways to bet on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It didn’t take long for Tom Brady to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise to the next level. After struggling at times during the first half of the season, Brady hit another gear down the stretch. He comes into his 10th Super Bowl appearance rocking a 110.8 passer rating with a 19:4 TD:INT ratio over his last seven starts.

  • Brady is surrounded by talented receivers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Scotty Miller. His old running mate Rob Gronkowski has lost a step as a receiver, but is still a force as a blocker, and Cameron Brate is manning the middle of the field.
  • Tampa is even stronger on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles led an aggressive unit that allowed the fewest rushing YPG (81.4) at a 3.7 YPC clip. With Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul screaming off the edge, Tampa finished 10th in sack rate (6.8%) this season and got past the Packers by sacking Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC Championship.
  • The Bucs lean on the pass under HC Bruce Arians. They have the third-lowest rush-play percentage (37.5%) and average the second-most passing YPG (287.1) this season. However, Leonard Fournette has injected life into their dormant rush offense and they’re averaging 115 rushing YPG in the playoffs.
  • Tampa Bay went 4-1 ATS this season when listed as underdogs. They were 9-2 on the road, but will play the Super Bowl in their home stadium in front of a widely neutral crowd. The Bucs were 3-1 against the AFC West, with their sole loss coming against Kansas City (27-24) in Week 12. They were missing starting CB Jamel Dean in that matchup and will hope that starting safeties Jordan Whitehead (shoulder) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) are active for the Super Bowl.

ALSO READ: 10 Ways to bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV

Super Bowl LV betting breakdown

The Players

Super Bowl LV is all about the quarterbacks. Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, and Brady – who has won four Super Bowl MVPs with six championships.

Operators at BetMGM report that there is over three times as much money down on Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP versus Brady. Mahomes is even money and Brady is getting 2/1 odds at most books.

“Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are the most popular picks by bettors to win Super Bowl MVP,” said Darren Darby, Sports Trader at BetMGM. “Mahomes is an even money favorite, with nearly half of all BetMGM’s handle on the Chiefs quarterback to win the award.”

The matchup certainly necessitates a big game from Mahomes considering how the Bucs defend the run. While it’s Mahomes pulling the trigger, he’s at the helm of one of the most uniquely dangerous offenses in NFL history. Andy Reid is an offensive genius and instinctive play caller who is 23-5 after a bye week, including playoff games.

Tampa has struggled in pass defense at times and rookie CB Carlton Davis was abused by Tyreek Hill in their Week 12 matchup. Hill erupted for 200-plus yards and 2 TDs in the first quarter alone with Davis left in single coverage against the speedster. Bowles adjusted by sending more help his way in the second half and should have a plan in place to try and prevent another eruption from Hill.

If Tampa shades coverage towards Hill and the Chiefs other speedy receivers, Travis Kelce will likely be free to work in single coverage. Kelce set a record for receiving yards (1,416) in a season by a TE and has 8 or more receptions in eight of his last nine games. Tampa allowed the seventh-most receptions (86) and TDs (9) to TEs during the regular season. Kelce and Hill have relatively low odds (+250) to score multiple TDs at DraftKings Sportsbook. Kelce’s receiving prop is 94.5 yards at DK and Hill’s prop is just 92.5 yards with -124 odds to go Over that number.

  • On paper, the Chiefs are more vulnerable against the run – so Leonard Fournette is an intriguing option in Daily Fantasy contests. His rushing prop sits at 48.5 yards at DK and you can even bet on him logging Over or Under 11.5 attempts. Fournette is getting +120 odds at DK to score a TD and +1050 odds to be the first TD scorer of the game.
  • The Bucs individual receivers draw some very difficult matchups. Mike Evans lines up opposite Bashaud Breeland, who ranks ninth in coverage rating with the third-lowest catch rate (50.8%) allowed this season. Chris Godwin will see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed, who ranks seventh in coverage rating and has 2 interceptions with only 2 TDs allowed all year.
  • The Chiefs primary slot CB, Charvarius Ward, is the weakest link by association, but he’s still 37th overall among CBs and allows just 0.81 yards of separation per target.
  • Godwin has been the most targeted receiver for Brady but has only secured 14-of-28 targets this postseason. He has a good chance to top 77.5 receiving yards with the Bucs likely to be in comeback mode. Evans has a receiving prop of 63.5 yards, but he’s more of a low-volume red zone specialist. He’s getting +125 odds at DK to score a TD and +1100 odds to score the first or last TD of Super Bowl LV.

Where to bet

The top sportsbooks for states that allow online gambling include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook,
PointsBet, BetMGM, FOX Bet and Bet Rivers Sportsbook.

If you are unsure of whether or not you can bet on the Super Bowl in your state, go to our state-by-state list here.

All of these books offer intriguing promotions and odds boosts for the big game.

  • DraftKings recently boosted the odds of Brady to record a rushing or receiving TD from +450 to +525. He’s a master of the QB sneak and could certainly pull one off in the Super Bowl.
  • FanDuel offers multi-sport parlay insurance for bettors who take five results in different sports. If four of those outcomes come to fruition, but the fifth doesn’t hit, you get $25 back. For Super Bowl 55, new users get ridiculous 55-1 odds to back the Chiefs or Bucs on the moneyline as their first FanDuel wager.
  • New users at PointsBet who place their first wager of $20 on the Chiefs or Bucs on the moneyline or spread and earn $155 in free bets if the team they back scores.
  • FOX Bet is running a similar promotion where new users can bet $10 on the Chiefs or Bucs and net $100 in free bets if the team they back scores.
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Betting the spread on the Super Bowl

The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites on the point spread, meaning that they would have to win by 4-plus points for that bet to be successful. The Bucs received a lot of early action as 3.5-point underdogs, and the line moved to an even 3 points in some places.

The spread is currently Chiefs .

The point spread usually hovers around a key number, such as 3, because that is the most likely difference in a close game. It’s possible to get off a key number, or “hook,” by buying points at the expense of your odds. For example, if you want the Chiefs at -2.5 but your sportsbook of choice has them at -3.5, you might be able to buy a point and bet them at -2.5 with -140 odds.

Betting the moneyline on the Super Bowl

Betting the moneyline is a simple way to pick a winner. The final score doesn’t matter with the moneyline, just the victor. The Chiefs have been masterful at pulling out close games in recent seasons and are getting odds on the moneyline. While over 75% of bets and handle at DK is on the Chiefs to cover the spread, only 63% of money is on the Chiefs moneyline, since those odds are less appealing.

Betting the total on the Super Bowl

The total for Super Bowl LV opened at 57.5 points, which is tied for the highest total in SB history along with the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl two years ago (New England won, 13-3, in a surprisingly low-scoring result).

Betting Under that total would cash if both teams combine to score fewer than 57 points, with a final score of 27-24 functioning as a win. The Over would hit if both teams combine for 58 or more points, as would occur in a 31-28 game.

Note that the total has moved down to 56.5 points in many spots with the public attacking the Under, following a trend with three of the last five Super Bowls going Under the implied total.

The current over/under for this year’s Super Bowl is .

Betting Super Bowl props

When it comes to the Super Bowl, there are no shortage of proposition bets or “props.

These bets can be an Over/Under regarding a player’s performance, a Yes/No proposition on that player scoring a TD, or a bet on the Super Bowl MVP. There are also Kickoff Specials, First Play Specials, and props on the number of Coaches Challenges used.

Many books offer a wide range of novelty props that have nothing to do with the competition, such as the length of the National Anthem, or the color of the Gatorade dumped on the victorious coach.

How to watch the Super Bowl

The Super Bowl is annually the most-watched TV program in the US. Last year 102.1 million people tuned in to the big game. As for what time does the Super Bowl start and end, kickoff will be at 6:30 p.m. ET and should wrap up just before 10 p.m..

  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Live stream: CBS All Access
  • Announcers: Jim Nantz (play-by-play), Tony Romo (analyst), Tracy Wolfson (sideline reporter), Evan Washburn (sideline reporter), Jay Feely (sideline reporter)
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