Sunday NFL Divisional Round: Best Picks and Player Props
Saturday gave us a ton of incredible storylines both on and off the field. The Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills played an all-time classic, with the Broncos prevailing 33-30 in overtime. However, quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle on the second-to-last play of the game and has been ruled out for the rest of the postseason. Jarrett Stidham, who has four career starts to his name and hasn't thrown a pass since the 2023 season, will get the start next week.
In the other game, Rashid Shaheed kicked things off with a kick return touchdown, and Kenneth Walker III ran for 116 yards and three touchdowns as the Seattle Seahawks steamrolled their NFC West rivals, the San Francisco 49ers, 41-6, to advance to the NFC Championship game.
Today, we find out who else takes one step closer to the Super Bowl. Today, the Houston Texans face the New England Patriots in the first game of the day, with the Los Angeles Rams traveling to take on the Chicago Bears in the nightcap.
The Texans are, by far, the best defensive team in the league and take on an MVP candidate in Drake Maye. Maye has certainly never faced a defense quite like this, and this matchup should decide who wins.
As for the Rams, they are the highest-scoring team in the league, facing one of the worst defenses in the Chicago Bears, though they have the best turnover differential in the NFL. The Rams have also forced the fifth-most turnovers in the league. If the Bears win, they'll need to force a lot of turnovers.
Sunday's NFL Odds
🏈Odds via Caesars Sportsbook📈
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Spread: Houston Texans +3 (-107); New England Patriots -3 (-113)
Money Line: Houston Texans +149; New England Patriots -179
Total: 40.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -4 (-110); Chicago Bears +4 (-110)
Money Line: Los Angeles Rams -200; Chicago Bears +167
Total: 48.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
NFL Game Lines
Houston Texans ML (+146), Under 40.5 (-106)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
Houston Texans ML is our best bet of the weekend. We feel so confident that we have invested a large number of units in this one.
Not only are the Texans on a 10-game winning streak, the best run in football, but they've also scored over 30 points a game in their last five contests.
Even though they're without Nico Collins today, they didn't really need him much in last week's 30-6 rout of the Pittsburgh Steelers, where he caught three balls for 21 yards. While he'll be missed, the Texans have plenty of offensive weapons in Woody Marks, Nick Chubb, Christian Kirk, Dalton Schultz, and rookie Jayden Higgins.
As for the Houston defense, they're personally the best I've ever seen in the NFL. Their corners are violent and looking for contact; they get after the quarterback, and have held their opponents under 20 points in 14 of 18 games this season.
Much of the game will depend on who controls the clock. Both teams are top-five in average time of possession, so they'll both be looking to control the pace. Given that the Patriots only scored 16 points on the Chargers last week, another top-five defense, we're confident in smashing the under in a Texans win.
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-118); Over 48.5 (-115)
🏈Odds via DraftKings📈
The Rams are ferocious on offense, and with Davante Adams back at full strength, it'll be nearly impossible for the Bears to shut them down. Los Angeles are the #1 scoring offense in all of football, scoring 30.5 points per game, all the more scary considering they've missed some star power throughout the year.
Against this Bears defense, we think the Rams could blow this game wide open. We think they may be able to score 40 or 50 points on their own, and this game should be a shootout that the Rams win comfortably.
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➜ Houston Texans 23 New England Patriots 17
➜ Los Angeles Rams 44 Chicago Bears 24
NFL Player Props
Kyren Williams 2+ Touchdowns (+800)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
The Chicago Bears rank 27th in run defense, allowing a gaudy 134.5 yards per game. Kyren Williams represents one of the biggest threats that the Bears have faced all year, and at a price of +800, there's no way we can pass this up.
Matthew Stafford 300+ Passing Yards (+198)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
This seems like a no-brainer to us. The Rams have the best passing offense in the league, while the Bears rank 22nd in passing defense. Look for Stafford to air it out early and often. The only chance this doesn't hit is if the Rams are blowing out the Bears from the onset.
Caleb Williams 300+ Passing Yards (+550)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
Whether this game is close or the Bears are being blown out, the game script calls for Williams to throw the ball a ton. Williams threw for 361 yards in their win over the Packers last week, the 11th-ranked passing defense in the league.
He's really found himself over the last five weeks, throwing the ball for 279 yards per game. Williams has also added a pair of touchdowns in each of his last six contests.
Luther Burden III 80+ Receiving Yards (+495)
🏈Odds via DraftKings📈
If you believe in Caleb Williams tonight, you have to pick up Burden to have a great game tonight. He's really been a joy to watch grow as a player in the second half of the season, averaging 73.2 yards per game over his last five games.
With Rome Odunze still hobbling, it will either be Burden or Colston Loveland to get the bulk of the receptions. While it's been Loveland over the last couple of weeks, we think it's Burden's turn.
Dalton Schultz Over 60 Receiving Yards (+245)
🏈Odds via DraftKings📈
New England gave up the 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2025, and Schultz is due for a breakout game after CJ Stroud was visibly shaken last week.
Schultz had a career-high 82 receptions this season, and we're banking on him to have another huge game, especially with the Texans missing Nico Collins.
Drake Maye Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-112)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
Though Maye has thrown for 258 yards a game this season, he's never in his life faced a team quite like this Texans defense. The Patriots allowed five sacks last week against the Chargers and allowed six against the Browns, the two top-five defenses they've faced. We're expecting the Texans to get to Maye all game long, smash this under.
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