Sunday NFL Conference Championships: Parlay Picks and Player Props
It's all come down to this: two Conference Championship games to decide who will take part in Super Bowl LX in two weeks. The two teams with the best records in their respective conferences have reached the last four and have all deservedly reached this stage. It's the 16-3 New England Patriots against the 15-3 Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship, while the 14-5 Los Angeles Rams travel to take on the 15-3 Seattle Seahawks in a battle of NFC West rivals.
The biggest talking point of the entire weekend is Bo Nix. The Denver Broncos starting quarterback suffered a season-ending ankle injury on the penultimate play of the game against the Buffalo Bills, opening the door for Jarrett Stidham to get his fifth career start and his first since January 2024. As a starter, twice with the Las Vegas Raiders and twice with the Broncos, Stidham has a 1-3 record, though he's averaged 270 passing yards with a total of six touchdowns and four interceptions.
Naturally, the Broncos defense will have to come up huge if they want to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. They had a real shot at the single-season sack record this season and are one of the scariest units in the NFL. While they should be able to keep it close, whether or not it will be enough remains to be seen.\
In the NFC Championship, it's going to be about who wants it more. The Seahawks and the Rams have played twice, splitting the season series with both games decided by just two points or less. It's truly anyone's game, though Seattle are far more rested. The Rams have had to battle to the end in each of their first two games, while the Seahawks had a first-round bye and breezed past the 49ers 41-6.
Without further ado, let's take a deep dive into this weekend's NFL Conference Championships.
Sunday's NFL Odds
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
🏈Odds via BetMGM 📈
- Spread: Patriots -3.5 (-115) | Broncos +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Patriots -220 | Broncos +185
- Over/Under: Over 43 (-110) | Under 43 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
- Spread: Rams +2.5 (-118) | Seahawks -2.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Rams +120 | Seahawks -142
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-115) | Under 45.5 (-105)
NFL Game Lines
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
Patriots -3.5 (-118), Under 43.5 (-118)
We're absolutely slamming the under in this one, though we've been very attracted to Denver's money line potential all week.
Even though the Patriots scored 28 points against the Texans, the best defense in all of football, they were the beneficiaries of five Houston turnovers, mostly gifts from CJ Stroud. They won't be receiving as many gifts this time around.
Denver's defense forced five turnovers of their own and still barely escaped against Buffalo. We're strong believers in a low-scoring game, though we're not sure if Jarrett Stidham is going to be able to do enough. While he's averaging 270 passing yards per start in his career, we're just not sure if he's going to outperform an MVP candidate in Drake Maye.
We have the Patriots winning by exactly four points, though we can't lie, we're not touching this game except for the under.
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-140), Over 45.5 (-115)
The Seahawks have the clear advantage when it comes to rest and recovery time. They barely needed to sweat against the San Francisco 49ers last week, putting up 41 points after having a first-round bye.
The Los Angeles Rams, meanwhile, needed a last-gasp touchdown to come from behind in an incredible battle with the Carolina Panthers to start their playoff journey. They then needed overtime to overcome the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field last week. They'll need to dig real deep to beat the Seahawks this week.
While we reckon that the Rams will find a second, maybe even a third gear, we just think the Seahawks are going to prove to be too much to overcome. We're looking forward to an incredible pass-heavy shootout between these two fantastic teams in what we think is the actual Super Bowl. Seahawks win this one on a last-second field goal.
NFL Player Props
Drake Maye 1+ Interceptions (-110)
🏈Odds via DraftKings📈
Maye has thrown interceptions in four of his last six games, having to face his third top-five defense in three weeks. While we're sure that he'll adapt well, Jarrett Stidham may be giving New England more possessions, which just increases his chances of throwing a pick.
New Customers: Bet $5+ and get $300 in Bonus Bets if it wins! Denver Broncos 2+ Made Field Goals (-150)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
The Broncos defense should force turnovers, and Stidham can move the ball down the field. However, we have doubts about his ability to finish possessions. We don't mind taking 3+ Made Field Goals at +210 or even 4+ Made Field Goals at +650.
Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+350)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
Stidham has a history of targeting his star wide receivers in his starting roles. Davante Adams had 153 yards and two touchdowns in Stidham's debut start with the Raiders, and 73 in his second game. His two Broncos starts came with the reserve team.
Sutton should get a lot of touches today, much more than he's used to. While he may attract the attention of the entire Patriots defense, we don't think that will matter too much.
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
Stafford threw for 46 touchdowns this season, the sixth-most in NFL history, and is the front-runner to win NFL MVP this season. He threw for a combined five touchdowns and no interceptions in his two matchups against Seattle this season. We're hammering the over tonight.
Bet & Get up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets! Rashid Shaheed Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
🏈Odds via FanDuel📈
Unsung heroes are born in the postseason, and Shaheed could be one of them. Shaheed has already had a massive impact on special teams since arriving in Seattle, and we all know that he can provide huge returns in the receiving game.
Given Tory Horton is out, his productivity when he was in New Orleans, and that we think this game will be won through the air, we're backing Shaheed to clear this number with ease. We're sprinkling some on Shaheed 60+ Receiving Yards at +680 because his price is too good and his potential is too high.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 125+ Receiving Yards (+250)
🏈Odds via BetMGM 📈
Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be Sam Darnold's number one option by a landslide tonight. JSN has averaged over 100 receiving yards per game all season, including 105 and 96 in his two games against the Rams.
Los Angeles cornerbacks have been allowing huge plays all season, and JSN will be ready to explode.
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