College Football Betting Guide: Appalachian State, Texas State Headline Sun Belt Conference Odds

As college football and CFB betting continues to change and evolve, the Sun Belt Conference evolves, too, but remains remarkably consistent. Once the Island of Misfit Toys – Southern Miss and FAU left for Conference USA – the Sun Belt built itself into a premier Group of Five conference. The talent pool this year is deep. Appalachian State and breakout Texas State lead Sun Belt odds tables. However, there’s plenty of turnover, particularly at contenders like James Madison, South Alabama, and Troy.

Grab a coffee and find somewhere comfortable to sit, we’re going deep in on the Sun Belt Conference for 2024.

Sun Belt Odds: To Win The Conference

Compare Sun Belt odds from the best sports betting sites below. Click anywhere to place a bet.

The Sun Belt Conference remains the lone holdout with divisions. As a result, the favorite from each division, Appalachian State (east) and Texas State (west) are the two favorites to win the league. The next two favorites in each division, Louisiana (west) and James Madison (east) make up a Tier 2. Beyond that, the waters are muddied and diverge into a handful of SBC West teams (South Alabama, Troy, Arkansas State) and the rest of the league.

ULM is the only real true longshot at 400-1. The rest of the teams remain moderate longshots (50-1 or shorter) in one of the deepest conferences in college football.

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Sun Belt Odds: Projected Wins, Win Totals

Projected wins below are derived from aggregate power ratings, including SP+, FPI, and more. Win totals are pulled from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Aug. 22.

Team	Proj. Wins	Win Total	Price
James Madison Dukes	8.8	8.5	+128/-158
Appalachian State Mountaineers	7.8	8.5	+112/-138
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns	7.7	7.5	-134/+110
Texas State Bobcats	7.4	8.5	+108/-134
Troy Trojans	7.4	6.5	+118/-144
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	6.8	6.5	+128/-158
South Alabama Jaguars	6.4	6.5	-160/+128
Arkansas State Red Wolves	5.6	6.5	+142/-178
Marshall Thundering Herd	5.6	5.5	OTB
Georgia State Panthers	4.9	4.5	+134/-164
Georgia Southern Eagles	4.6	5.5	+110/-134
Old Dominion Monarchs	4.0	4.5	+116/-142
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	4.0	4.5	+138/-170
ULM Warhawks	2.4	2.5	+140/-172

Sun Belt Power Rankings

Table Key (all ranks except power rankings are national):

• Rank (Power ranking, conference)
• Proj. Wins (Projected total wins)
• Return (Returning production, total)
• PPD (Points per drive scored)
• PPDA (Points per drive allowed)
• L5 (Last five years recruiting average, national)

Sun Belt Odds: The Favorites

Appalachian State Mountaineers
Sun Belt Odds: Appalachian State Mountaineers +6500 on FanDuel

A brief 6-6 finish in 2022 cast a shadow of doubt on the college football world that maybe the Appalachian State run was over. Just a year after returning to the FBS in 2014, App State went 11-2 and never really looked back. The 2022 season was the first with fewer than nine wins since re-joining the FBS. And then last year, the Mountaineers returned to 9-5 and Sun Belt runners up.

Star QB Joey Aguilar returns after throwing over 3,700 yards (seventh-most in the nation) and 33 touchdowns (second-most returning). Both marks set school records and Aguilar wasn’t even the starter for Week 1. Despite top RB Nate Noel transferring, over 1,300 rushing yards return with a trio of veteran backs, namely Kanye Roberts. The offensive line will need rebuilding as only one starter returns. Tragically, All-SBC right tackle Jack Murphy passed away this offseason.

Six starters return from a defense that finished top-40 nationally in points per drive. Linebacker Nate Johnson and defensive backs Ethan Johnson and Jordan Favors are all-conference candidates for this year. Both Johnsons earned All-SBC honors in 2023. The rising projected starters for this year bring 84 collegiate starts.

The route to a Sun Belt title won’t be easy. Though App State avoids Texas State, it travels to Louisiana and Coastal Carolina, and hosts James Madison. Note the non-conference schedule when betting App State futures like win total and To Make the College Football Playoff – at Clemson, at East Carolina, versus Liberty. That Week 5 matchup has the potential for serious CFP ramifications later on.

Texas State Bobcats
Sun Belt Odds: Texas State Bobcats +300 on DraftKings

Texas State was a popular darkhorse pick for 2023, but few projected quite the improvement the Bobcats saw. G.J. Kinne led Texas State to a 8-5 record, Week 1 upset at Baylor (+27) and bowl game win over Rice. This year, Kinne upgrades the offense with JMU transfer Jordan McCloud at QB. McCloud returns the most passing touchdowns (35) from a different system. Kinne implemented the Spread-n-Shred system in San Marcos to great effect. Texas State’s offense turned in a top-30 PPD performance and ran the 14th-fastest pace.

Standout RB Ismail Mahdi returns after a second-team All-American selection (APB) and over 1,500 scrimmage yards. UTEP hammer Deion Hawkins transfers in to give a thunder to Mahdi’s lightning. The 235-pound back rushed for over 2,500 yards in four seasons in El Paso. Receiver Joey Hobert landed on the All-SBC list last year after pulling in nearly 900 yards and eight touchdowns. Two offensive line starters from last year are bolstered by two transfer starters, RG Tellek Lockette (ULM) and RT Alex Harkey (Colorado).

The defense needs serious improvement. Last year, the Bobcats finished 96th in PPD and gave up a ghastly 77 points to Arkansas State. Texas State held just four opponents under 30, two under 21, and none under 20. Edge rusher Ben Bell was one of the lone standouts on this defense last year. The All-SBC selection led the country in pass rush win rate (29.8%). All-conference transfer Steven Parker (Incarnate Word) logged 14.5 TFLs in just nine starts and should be an impact player across Bell.

The bullish outlook on Texas State is well-deserved. Could this be a short-lived audition for Kinne & Co. to move to bigger roles? Or will opposing teams begin to puzzle slowing down the Spread-n-Shred?

Sun Belt Odds: The Contenders

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Sun Belt Odds: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns +600 on BetRivers

Michael Desormeaux simply hasn’t lived up to standards set by Billy Napier. Since taking over, Desormeaux is a combined 12-14 with two 6-7 seasons and two bowl losses. Offensively, the Ragin’ Cajuns over-performed and may do so again, returning both Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge at QB (20 combined starts). Neither has been able to both win the QB1 and stay healthy the last couple seasons. As the saying goes, if you have two QBs, you have none.

RB Dre’Lyn Washington could be a surprise riser this year. On 92 rush attempts, Washington only lost seven total during the season (gained 522). Receivers Jacob Bernard and Harvey Broussard return, but no pass catcher on this Louisiana offense recorded 500 yards last year. All-conference guard A.J. Gille anchors four returning starters along the offensive line. Though QB Zeon Chriss is off to Houston, expect more of the same from this Ragin’ Cajuns offense.

Under Desormeaux, the Louisiana defense plummeted. It finished 87th in PPD and allowed 30+ seven times last year. The majority of that unit returns, including seven starters. The team was unable to land an impact transfer up front, so development will have to be the route to patching a defense that finished outside the top 100 in rush EPA allowed last year.

Since taking over as head coach, Desormeaux is 2-9 in one-score games. Louisiana went 2-5 in such games last year and 0-2 in overtime. While a regression to the mean could be expected, Desormeaux could be an exception with mismanagement in tight games.

South Alabama Jaguars
Sun Belt Odds: South Alabama Jaguars +1300 on DraftKings

Major Applewhite takes over as head coach following Kane Womack’s departure to Alabama. Applewhite served as OC the last three seasons and improved the scoring unit from 87th to 30th in PPD. Applewhite also served as Houston head coach from 2016-18 before spending time on Nick Saban’s offensive staff at Alabama.

Last year’s South Alabama team was a definitive outlier. It finished top-30 on offense and top-25 on defense but finished 7-6. The Jaguars (+7) blew out Oklahoma State on the road and then lost to Central Michigan the next week. Over a two week stretch, South Alabama beat ULM and Southern Miss a combined 110-10 then lost as -11 favorites the next week to Louisiana. Truly a bizarre season.

Redshirt freshman Gio Lopez likely gets the start. He completed 67% of his passes for four touchdowns and two picks in limited relief work last year. 1,000-yard rusher La’Damian Webb graduates and left are a hodge-podge of unproven commodities. How this offense shapes early is worthy of your attention as it’s expected this unit transforms quite a bit. Two starters on the offensive line return for a combined 18 starts.

Applewhite promoted linebackers coach Will Windham to defensive coordinator. The Womack defensive system should stay put. Lineman Wy’Kevious Thomas and safety Jaden Voisin are standouts. The rest of the unit is very green – only six total starts return among seven new starters. Liberty transfer DE Aakil Washington brings eight career starts and seven sacks across four seasons.

Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sun Belt Odds: Arkansas State Red Wolves +2500 on BetRivers

One of the better stories in college football last year, Butch Jones has turned Arkansas State into a dangerous team. QB Jaylen Raynor burst onto the scene, throwing for over 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns in 10 starts as a true freshman. Raynor also added nearly 600 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. After starting the season 0-2 and having been beaten a combined 110-3, the Red Wolves went on a 6-4 run that landed them in a bowl game.

Raynor returns, as do all four top rushers who combined for over 1,700 rushing yards. Corey Rucker (19.8 yards per reception) presented himself as a serious deep threat, as did running mate Courtney Jackson (17.7 Y/R). Three of Raynor’s top four receivers averaged over 17.5 Y/R, resulting in a 58.3% completion rate but high yields. Unfortunately, All-SBC center Jacob Bayer suffered a torn ACL in the spring and will miss the season. Otherwise, three starters return.

The defense got off to a horrific start. Aside from surrendering 110 points in the first two games, it allowed 37 to Southern Miss in Week 4 and another 37 to Troy in Week 6. But things did begin to fall in place – Arkansas State held its next four opponents to under 30 points. From Weeks 1-6, the Red Wolves allowed 42.4 points per game to FBS foes. From Week 7 on, that fell to 25.1.

According to an opposing coach, this is the “most complete depth chart since Jones got there.” Despite the loss of Bayer, this should be an improved Arkansas State team. That may not translate to a better win-loss record, though, as the Red Wolves draw the third-toughest schedule in the Sun Belt.

Sun Belt Odds: The Middle Class

Troy Trojans
Sun Belt Odds: Troy Trojans +30000 on DraftKings

Gerad Parker left Notre Dame as a maligned OC to be the head coach at Troy. Perhaps he’s better suited as a head coach as a coordinator – after all, plenty of coaches are more suited to one or the other – but the hire brought forth a lukewarm reception. Replacing Jon Sumrall, who went 23-4 in two seasons, is a tough ask. As is typical with coaching turnover, the roster saw serious changes. Top WR Chris Lewis was a late exit from the program due to a sudden cancer diagnosis. Troy returns the eight-least roster production this season (37%).

From Gunnar Watson to Goose Crowder, Troy at least maintains an All-Name selection at QB. The engine of the offense, Kimani Vidal, left for the NFL after rushing for over 1,600 yards and 14 TDs. Two starters from a dynamite offensive line return and the rest need refiguring. The kind of outgoing production this year isn’t easily replaced. Parker & Co. failed to fill those gaps with notable transfers. Parker hired West Virginia QBs coach Sean Reagan as OC. Reagan was instrumental in the development of Garrett Greene, a solid QB for WVU.

Just one of the top 10 tacklers from a season ago returns, linebacker Jordan Stringer. Of the departures, six earned all conference honors. The rising defensive starters bring just three starts from last year and 28 career starts to the table. New DC Dontae Wright (WVU safeties coach) has his work cut out for him. The staff does have familiarity with other names tied to Troy, both Neal Brown and Jon Sumrall. The Parker hire was seemingly given their stamp of approval.

While there might be growing pains this year, Parker has high-level experience in college football. Trojans football has the monetary backing of Troy and this program should continue to stay in the mix.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Sun Belt Odds: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +1800 on BetRivers

While not fully documented, Coastal Carolina made an offensive change last year. At some point, the play calling duties were moved from Tim Beck and the offense opened up. Stale and predictable plays turned back to more option concepts seen under Jamey Chadwell. And it worked – Coastal Carolina won five consecutive games before dropping its last two and finishing 7-5. QB Ethan Vasko, who stepped in for an injured Grayson McCall, returns but McCall does not. Instead, Michigan State transfer Noah Kim is expected to start.

Sophomore RB Ja’Vin Simpkins could add more pop to the run game after logging just 22 total carries last year. He projects to usurp Braydon Bennett (407 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 4.5 average). Should Coastal continue its open offense, having a bellcow back isn’t important. But finding a downfield and dynamic receiver is. The top two receivers from last year both depart. Two projected starters, Bryson Graves, Jamahdia Whitby, are a true sophomore and Division-III transfer, respectively. Three starting offensive linemen are back.

A pleasant surprise last year was the defense. Coastal held UCLA to 27 points and each opponent under 25 points during its 5-0 run. That unit improved from allowing 31.3 points per game in its first four FBS games to 19.4 points per game in its next six. However, it was also out-matched at times. James Madison hung 56 in the regular season finale and Army rushed for 365 yards the week prior. Six starters return and two Power Conference transfers project to start Day 1 – DT Sawyer Goram-Welch (Texas) and safety A.J. Williams (Wake Forest).

The non-league slate is exceedingly winnable, although the Sun Belt slate picks up in difficulty. Coastal starts at Jacksonville State and with Temple and Virginia. In conference play, Coastal draws Troy and Louisiana from the West while visiting James Madison and hosting App State.

Georgia Southern Eagles
Sun Belt Odds: Georgia Southern Eagles +1400 on BetRivers

QB J.C. French was named the starter just before the season starts. French only attempted 16 passes last year as a true freshman and enters an exceptionally-pass heavy system. Pass game coordinator Ryan Alpin takes over play calling duties. That hints to Georgia Southern continuing its pass-heavy system that resulted in 556 pass attempts, most in the country. Despite that, RB Jalen White rushed his way to an All-SBC selection (889 yards, nine TDs). White and two of the top three receivers from a year ago return.

Watch for a few Power Conference transfers. WR L.V. Bunkley-Shelton (Oklahoma) and TE Tyler Fromm (Auburn) appear poised to be Day 1 contributors. QB Dexter Williams (Indiana) could give the QB room an insurance policy, although Williams sustained a significant injury in 2022. Two offensive line starters return and the unit is bolstered by North Carolina transfer Justin Kanyuk.

The Eagles’ defense finished ranked 111th in PPD last season. Despite that, some notable talent returns, namely DE Isaac Walker and All-American honorable mention LB Marques Watson-Trent. Big plays were the killer last year – Georgia Southern allowed the fourth-most 20+ yard plays in the nation. Part of the issue was a lack of talent at the cornerback position. GASO also finished with the sixth-worst turnover margin in the nation (-10).

Last year, GASO started 6-2 before losing its final four games and bowl game. This year, the schedule is challenging. Per ESPN’s FPI, it ranks fourth-toughest in the Sun Belt.

A Sun Belt Longshot To Consider: James MAdison Dukes

This year’s James Madison Dukes team is a far cry of what we saw the last two years. Just five total starters return and none of the coaching staff. As a result, the college football world has tossed this team by the wayside. Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney comes aboard and brings his OC, Dean Kennedy, and Special Teams Coordinator, Drew Canan, with him. Last year, Holy Cross lost to Boston College and Army by a combined six points. In 2022, Chesney took the Crusaders to the FCS quarterfinals and upset Buffalo.

QB Dylan Morris transfers in with 15 career starts at Washington and over 3,700 passing yards thrown. Kennedy developed Mathew Sluka into one of the top FCS QBs and has a veteran in Morris to work with this year. North Texas 1,000-yard rusher Ayo Adeyi also transfers in. The offensive line rises 48 starts from last year even though just two players played for JMU; tackle Tyshawn Wyatt returns from a season-ending injury.

The defense needs significant retooling. Of the 46 sacks from a season ago, 44 vacate to the transfer portal. The rising starters are well-decorated with all-conference honors, but many come from FCS programs like Long Island and Holy Cross. Should those players stick in the FBS, James Madison could again field a top-notch defense.

The Dukes play a favorable schedule, avoiding all four top teams in the Sun Belt West. The non-conference consists of Charlotte, FCS Gardner Webb, North Carolina, and Ball State – far from a difficult slate. Chesney is a seasoned veteran. While previews pick JMU to finish fourth in its division, we project closer to a 9-3 season than 7-5.

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A Sun Belt Team To Fade: Marshall Thundering Herd

It’s a clean sweep on offense for Marshall this coming year. Charles Huff brings in Seth Doege at OC to install the Air Raid after last year’s unit finished 108th in PPD. Mitch Griffis originally transferred in from Wake Forest, but stepped away from football. Instead, Cole Pennington likely assumes the QB1 role (son of Chad). According to an opposing coach, the league isn’t sure if there’s support for Huff at Marshall. The shift to an Air Raid outwardly appears to be a panic move, as Huff understands there’s calls for his job. Currently, Marshall doesn’t have the personnel to run the Air Raid.

The biggest offensive playmaker needs replacing. 1,100-yard rusher Rasheen Ali left for the NFL and his replacement is NC State transfer Jordan Houston (sixth-year senior). In a vastly different offensive system, Marshall did not produce a 450-yard receiver. This year, they don’t return a 400-yard receiver. Middle Tennessee transfer Elijah Metcalf is the best talent in the room and upgrades the unit. All-SBC candidate Logan Osburn is the lone returning offensive lineman.

Pennington threw no touchdowns and six interceptions in limited work last season. Under his direction, Marshall’s offense completely sputtered. Regardless, the Thundering Herd finished 4-1 in one-score games a season ago, cause for regression this year. With another sub-.500 season, Huff could be out.

This team doesn’t inspire much confidence in 2024. Phil Steele projects a decent season from Marshall, but I don’t see it. Fitting Doege’s system in Huntington is like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, given the current roster makeup.

Everyone Else

Georgia State Panthers
Sun Belt Odds: Georgia State Panthers +9000 on DraftKings

Dell McGee is a lauded hire, especially for needing to hire late in the cycle. All of the dynamic playmakers from years past are gone including top two rushers, passers, and top receiver. Georgia State plays seven conference games in eight weeks without a bye, including two on short weeks and two others with opponents coming off a bye. A run at App State (rest disadvantage), UConn, and James Madison (rest disadvantage) is particularly brutal. Georgia State returns home to play Arkansas State before a road date at Texas State. Panthers might take some lumps this year.

Old Dominion Monarchs
Sun Belt Odds: Old Dominion Monarchs +5000 on BetRivers

Tackle machine Jason Henderson returns, as does QB Grant Wilson. However, top two rushers, top receiver, and next top five tacklers behind Henderson need replacing. ODU went on a miracle run, winning its last two games and throwing a two-point conversion on its final play of the regular season to grab bowl eligibility. Then it blew a massive 28-7 early lead to Western Kentucky and lost in OT. ODU played in a ridiculous 11 one-score games, including in 10 of its last 11. This year, the Monarchs host Virginia Tech – a team they’ve beaten twice in a row at home.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Sun Belt Odds: Southern Miss Golden Eagles +25000 on DraftKings

Will Hall returns as head coach (13-24) after beating just two FBS opponents last year. Frank Gore Jr. finally departs the team for the NFL; he accounted for 27% of the team’s total yardage last year. Hall cleaned house and brings on Chip Long as OC (Georgia Tech, Notre Dame) and Clay Bignell as DC (Eastern Illinois DC). Florida State transfer Tate Rodemaker is the likely QB1 this year. He struggled in games in Tallahassee but a step down in competition could bring him to flourish. The defense should improve with multiple Power Conference transfers in after finishing 120th a year ago.

ULM Warhawks
Sun Belt Odds: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +5000 on BetRivers

Former UAB interim Bryant Vincent comes to town as the next in a long line of coaches trying to get this program going. Oklahoma transfer General Booty leads the team as QB1 and that’s about where the notables end. ULM lacks resources or a desirable college town to bring in impactful transfers enough to bring itself to annual bowl contention. Vincent is a worthy coach to put effort into reviving the Warhawks, but it’s likely a fruitless effort. ULM has made one bowl since reinstating the team in 1994 (2012). Candidate for the worst team in the FBS again.

Sun Belt All-Conference Team

QB: Jordan McCloud (Texas State), Joey Aguilar (App State) 
RB: Jalen White (Georgia Southern), Ismail Mahdi (Texas State) 
WR: Derwin Burgess Jr. (Georgia Southern), Kaedin Robinson (App State), Joey Hobert (Texas State)
TE: Eli Wilson (App State)
OT: Makilan Thomas (Arkansas State), Nash Jones (Texas State)
IOL: Logan Osburn (Marshall), Daniel King (Troy), A.J. Gille (Louisiana)

DL: Ben Bell (Texas State), Denzel Lowry (Old Dominion), Wy’Kevious Thomas (South Alabama), Isaac Walker (Georgia Southern)
LB: Jason Henderson (Old Dominion), Nate Johnson (App State), Marques Watson-Trent (Georgia Southern)
CB: Gavin Pringle (Georgia State), Ethan Johnson (App State)
SAF: J.J. Roberts (Marshall), Jaden Voisin (South Alabama)

Coaching & Coordinator Changes In The Sun Belt

Bob Chesney, James Madison: Chesney brings a 111-46 career record (.707) as head coach in D-III and, most recently, FCS Holy Cross. He was a highly-sought after commodity, also having been rumored for the Boston College job.

Dell McGee, Georgia State: McGee is a lauded hire, especially for how late in the game Georgia State’s coaching vacancy opened up. He’s spent plenty of time in Georgia, coaching at UGA and Georgia Southern since 2014 after playing at Auburn. McGee is an ace recruiter and officially stands 1-0 as a head coach, leading a bowl victory in 2015 for… arch rival Georgia Southern.

Major Applewhite, South Alabama: Applewhite, the standing offensive coordinator, takes the reins from Kane Wommack, who left for Alabama’s defensive staff. He had a three-year stint at Houston, where he went 15-11 before being replaced by Dana Holgorsen. Applewhite also had a brief stint on Nick Saban’s staff at Alabama.

Gerad Parker, Troy: Perhaps Parker is a better manager than coordinator. This hire was met with a resounding “meh,” particularly from those familiar with Notre Dame. However, some coaches are suited for coordinating and some are suited for head coaching. We’ll find out with Parker early on.

Check out every Sun Belt coaching and coordinator change this offseason!

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