NFL Wild Card Steelers Vs. Bills Player Prop Bets, SGP Promos: Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid Emerges
Monday’s schedule for NFL playoff odds begins with the Pittsburgh Steelers heading east to Buffalo in the AFC’s No. 2 vs. No. 7 seed matchup. With Mason Rudolph squaring off with Josh Allen in a windstorm, there’s a lot of intrigue for the rescheduled 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff. This makes Steelers vs. Bills prop bets quite an interesting market to bet on, especially if the wind affects the game.
Below, I’ll explain who I’m targeting in NFL player prop bets and share available SGP odds boosts. Use our free Prop Finder Tool on TheLines.com to shop player prop prices from the best betting sites. Click on the sportsbook odds below to bet now.
Saturday NFL Player Props: Steelers at Bills
Potential Steelers vs. Bills Prop Bets
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown ()
Check out my Buffalo Bills anytime touchdown post linked above for the full analysis of this bet.
Dalton Kincaid Over Receiving Yards
Kincaid has recovered nicely in the last two weeks after a late-season dip in his usage. The return of Dawson Knox initially created questions about his reliability on a week-to-week basis, but two straight 80-yard weeks has settled that. The high winds are suppressing his yardage total, even though Kincaid might be one of the beneficiaries of higher winds.
The Bills have used Kincaid mostly on shorter routes by getting him in space and letting him create after the catch. His big frame allows him to break tackles and get more yards. If the wind is affecting the Bills’ passing game, the deeper shots and more intricate timing routes may get abandoned for safer passes underneath.
If so, the wind might end up being an advantage for Kincaid. If the wind is less of a factor than expected, then we’ve got Kincaid at an artificially low price. It’s still also possible that the wind is so strong, it might be like the Patriots at Bills game from a couple of years ago, when Josh Allen only had 145 passing yards with Stefon Diggs leading all receivers at 51 yards.
Jaylen Warren Over Receptions
This is similar to the Kincaid bet in that weather could help what is already a logical bet. The Steelers are flirting with being double-digit underdogs. If that’s correct, they’ll likely be playing from behind for large portions of this game.
With 14 receptions in the last three weeks, Warren has been key out of the passing game, even in games the Steelers have been competitive in or leading throughout. The projected game script only augments his case, as does the weather. If it is too windy to pass downfield successfully, then the Steelers will likely resort to lower depth of target passes. That’s Warren’s game.
Same Game Parlay Legs To Consider
Bills ML ()
This is slightly risky, but I don’t care. The Bills have been fundamentally an elite team this season that screwed around and lost games they shouldn’t have before they found their level. On the other side are the Steelers, who will be without their best player, TJ Watt.
All respect to Mike Tomlin for what he’s done in getting the Steelers to this stage. That he’s made this team a playoff team is nothing short of a miracle. But that it’s a miracle to be a 7-seed tells you all you need to know about who is extremely likely to win this game.
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NFL Same Game Parlay Odds Boosts
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