After a great run for staff bets through the first few weeks, things fell apart in Week 5. The staff got waxed for 1-3 on best bets, in a week BetMGM told us was the most profitable for the book this season. We march on with renewed spirit for our Week 6 NFL bets.
The author would point out a mitigating circumstance on Dolphins -3 in that they would up giving basically every snap to a guy he was stunned to see had a professional contract, but such is life sometimes. Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.
TheLines Staff NFL Week 6 Bets Grid
Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.
Favorite Week 6 Bets
Stephen Andress: Jets (+7.5) At Packers
It very much feels like the market has not adjusted Green Bay enough from its preseason expectations. There are serious red flags at this point and within this matchup with the Packers more than a touchdown favorite against the Jets. Eli noted many of them in his Week 6 bets column, but I’ll highlight a few here.
The major concern has been Zach Wilson progressing off a poor rookie season. Early results are encouraging, after he posted above average marks in EPA, success rate and CPOE thus far. He’s also working with an offensive line that’s above average in run block win rate and impressive rookie RB in Breece Hall against a Packers defense that has now failed to slow the Patriots and Giants run games. Green Bay is bottom five in rush EPA defense and dead last in success rate against the run.
On the flip side, we have another trenches mismatch that favors the J-E-T-S. The Packers offensive line is below average in blocking win rates. New York is getting pressure at a top-five rate with the fourth-lowest blitz rate. That will allow for even more help in coverage against a Packers pass game that has not found its footing.
Eli Hershkovich: Saints (+3) Vs. Bengals
Not only are the Bengals overvalued in the betting market, especially with this spread ticking up to a field goal, but their rushing defense should also continue to regress on Sunday. Just like the Ravens, the Saints employ their fair share of read-option looks via Taysom Hill & Co. If they’re able to milk the clock and keep the ball away from Joe Burrow’s high-flying passing attack, they’ll be in position to pull off the upset.
With that said, I took the points because of how my power ratings would spit out a spread for these two teams on a neutral field.
Mo Nuwwarah: Jaguars (+2.5) At Colts
Back to my favorite well of fading the Indianapolis Colts. I think I’ve wagered against the Colts in three of four games since their eye-opening Week 1 tie with the Texans, and I would be 3-0 on those bets if Denver didn’t have an all-time meltdown in high-leverage moments (I had a -2.5 look-ahead line wager).
This is simply an awful offense and therefore a bad football team. They have a respectable, solid defense — although that unit remains below its peak without Shaq Leonard — but offense and passing offense specifically wins football games in 2022. And few if any teams have showcased a worse passing offense than the Colts. Pick your advanced metric and the Colts are dead last or close. Passing EPA/play has them fifth-worst in the NFL. DVOA has them worst on Earth both passing and rushing, if you can believe that.
Even basic metrics paint this offense as terrible. They have the worst scoring offense in the league.
And in walks a Jaguars team that I think the market is undervaluing coming off of two poor performances. I’ll happily forgive the first one, a loss to an elite team (Eagles) on the road in bad weather where the QB fumbled four times. That seems like an easy “burn the tape and forget it” type of game. Then, the Jags completely dominated the Texans but blew it in every high-leverage spot.
I like them to bounce back and get another win against a Colts team I clearly think is far worse than the market does.
Brett Gibbons: Buccaneers At Steelers Under 45.5
There is not an NFL offense operating worse right now and with less talent than the Pittsburgh Steelers. As rookie QB Kenny Pickett gets acclimated to the league, the Steelers are going to continue to struggle to score points. As it stands after Week 5, Pittsburgh is 28th in yards per play (4.9), 29th in dropback EPA and 31st in yards per pass attempt (6.1). All this culminates into the NFL’s third-worst scoring offense (15.4).
Their opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rates in the upper echelon of defenses in both rostered talent and output. The Bucs are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per play this season (4.7) and the eighth-worst opposing passer rating (77.6), which factors in a 41-point outing by the Chiefs. With smart and athletic linebackers like Lavonte David lining up across from Pickett, this could be an offensive disaster akin to what we saw last week against Buffalo.
When targeting unders – particularly in the NFL – finding one team that won’t uphold their end of the scoring is my favorite strategy. An implied final score at DraftKings Sportsbook suggests a 27-18.5 final. I’m basing this bet on Pittsburgh’s proven inability to score 19 or more points against a top-flight defense.
Evan Scrimshaw: Jets (+7.5) At Packers
As a Packers fan, betting against my team never feels good, but this week it feels insane not to. The Jets are third in the league in pressure rate while blitzing fourth-least in the league, while Green Bay has a bottom-third rate of allowing pressure. With the Packers offense as bland and uninspiring as it’s been, this is a huge problem.
If Rodgers and Co. can’t score a ton, the Jets should be able to score enough to keep this close, if not win. In the two Zach Wilson started games, the Jets have scored 24 or more points in both. Wilson’s been 12th and 15th in EPA those two weeks, and the Jets running game should slice through the Packers’ 30th-ranked rush defense by DVOA.
Buying Green Bay means paying a big-name QB tax, and given that, it’s gotta be the Jets.
Good luck with your Week 6 NFL bets!