TheLines Staff: 4 Favorite NFL Week 5 Bets

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 7, 2022
Week 5 NFL bets

Week 4 proved another good one for anyone tailing TheLines staff picks. The plays went 3-1-1, but the push could have been a win if you tailed Eli and I earlier in the week and got +3.5 on the Ravens. Hopefully, these Week 5 NFL bets cash as well.

Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.

TheLines Staff NFL Week 5 Bets Grid

Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.

Favorite Week 5 Bets

Stephen Andress: Packers Teaser Leg Down To -2.5 or Better At DraftKings

The Packers line has moved back into teaser bet territory, and I’m going to jump on it. Daniel Jones looks like he may play after the Giants didn’t sign another QB, but that ankle is not 100%. We’ve seen with a lack of WRs, Jones has relied heavily on his mobility, picking up yards with his legs. Plus, if he can’t finish the game, the next man up is a third-string QB with the back-up in concussion protocol.

The also market registered a very strong opinion on the Giants last week, when NYG could not get to -3 (-110) at home against the bottom-two Bears. So yes, we could already be losing money before the 1 p.m. kickoffs. YOLO.

DraftKings Sportsbook is one of the few U.S.-based sportsbooks still offering two-leg, six-point teasers for -120, and there are a plethora of options this week to tease the Packers with in Week 5. PSA: don’t lay more than -120 juice on two-leg, six-point teasers. I’ll allow the great Mo Nuwwarah to walk you through those Week 5 teasers. I paired mine with the 49ers, Vikings and Jaguars in three separate teasers.

I feel better about teasers this week than any of my spread bets in the table above.

Eli Hershkovich: Commanders +2 Vs. Titans

Among my three NFL Week 5 picks, this one still showcases a valuable spread. Yes, I’m willing to ruin my Sunday by backing Carson Wentz for a third consecutive week.

The Titans are arguably the most fraudulent .500 team remaining — highlighted by their top-rated offensive DVOA in the red zone (via Football Outsiders). It would normally be an impressive mark, but it’s 58.9 percentage points above the next team. Maybe regression doesn’t arrive until after their bye week, but this matchup suggests it could transpire sooner.

Don’t get me wrong, the Commanders secondary is as as poor as they come. But Tennessee’s offense runs through tailback Derrick Henry, and Jack Del Rio’s defensive front has been stout versus opposing ground attacks.

If the aforementioned Wentz shows any signs of life against the Titans secondary, which is allowing the fifth-highest dropback EPA, his team should be in position to pull off the upset.

You may see more value with Washington moneyline () instead, as it depends on your handicapping approach. Feel free to use them as a teaser leg (+7.5 or better) as well.

Mo Nuwwarah: Dolphins -3 (-115) At Jets

I grabbed the Dolphins at -3 early in the week, and the line moved to Dolphins -3.5 pretty much across the board. However, some Jets money has -3 available once again, albeit a bit pricey. I think that’s a fine play.

Consider that the look-ahead lines for this market had the Dolphins as high as -6.5. Tua Tagovailoa gets hurt and the team underperforms in a pretty predictable underperformance spot (where they still had a chance to win the game) and this moves all the way to -3?

I can’t see how such a move is justified. Is Teddy Bridgewater a meaningful downgrade from Tagovailoa? Is he a downgrade at all? I don’t imagine so, and I don’t imagine the market has figured out how to properly price in Bridgewater considering his stellar against-the-spread record over the years.

Matchup-wise, the Dolphins secondary is banged up and looks like a fairly inviting target. However, will the Jets really be able to take advantage? Zach Wilson has basically been the worst QB in the league since he took over the starting job. He wasn’t any better in his 2022 debut with a couple of picks against the Steelers.

Miami has a very solid team still with what looks like a sharp coach. I’m going to take the discount the market is offering me after a loss that I don’t see as very predictive, and I love that the backup QB here gets some extra time to gain comfort in the offense.

Evan Scrimshaw: Titans (-1.5) At Commanders

The Titans have been one of the early season’s most variable teams, with two bad performances to start the season and two straight wins since. With the 14th best offense by DVOA and the 12th by PFF, the Titans have the best unit of the four that will see the field.

Yes, their defense remains suspect, but it’s better than the Commanders’ 24th-ranked group. More importantly, they have the privilege to play Carson Wentz. Wentz has been a disaster, sitting 25th in QBR and 27th in EPA/play. Getting to fade Wentz at this number is just too hard to pass up, and the fact that the Titans are turning the corner makes it even more comfortable.

Good luck with your Week 5 NFL bets!

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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