Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.
TheLines Staff NFL Week 4 Bets Grid
Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.
Favorite Week 4 Bets
Stephen Andress: Broncos +3 or Broncos +8.5 teaser leg
This line movement baffles me. What in the hell have the Raiders done to earn market respect? If a +3 pops on the Broncos, just bet that. If it doesn’t, a teaser leg on Denver +8.5 is also borderline erotic.
The Raiders were already mispriced in the market coming into the season after some flashy offseason moves and the perception the team would build off a playoff berth. This team was insanely lucky to finish 10-7 last season to begin with, leading to an inflated market perception. How lucky?
- 4-0 in overtime games, the most wins in overtime games in NFL history
- 5-1 in games decided by a field goal or less
- 7-2 in one-score games
- seventh in fumble luck
- won eight games in which they trailed in at some point, second-most in the NFL
- trailed in 15 games last season, only behind the Jets, Giants and Lions (no team since 2016 trailed in 15+ games and made the playoffs)
This team could have easily been 7-10, and now this season, has started 0-3 with no argument to have been better than 1-2. And yet, the Raiders are a BIGGER favorite this week (-2.5) against the Broncos than they were on the summer opener (pick ’em) and the look-ahead line (-1.5). So Las Vegas is getting more credit?! It makes absolutely zero sense.
Argue that the Broncos offense looked bad all you want against the 49ers. That San Francisco defense is elite at getting pressure without blitzing. Oh by the way, Denver won the game, because its defense is damn good too. Now, that defense can feast on a poor Raiders offensive line. Denver proved it can move the ball just fine the first two weeks and just needs some red zone regression to take care of Las Vegas.
Eli Hershkovich: Ravens (+3) Vs. Bills
If you recall, I’ve been invested in the Ravens since August, and they’re still slightly undervalued in the betting market.
Lamar Jackson was heavily scrutinized in the offseason after manufacturing a Dropback EPA that settled in below league average. However, the personnel around him were severely banged up. Combine healthier skill position players and Jackson’s individual refinement, and the 25-year-old signal caller owns the second-highest ranking in the aforementioned department thus far.
Moreover, the Bills may roll out an inexperienced secondary, especially if safety Jordan Poyer (foot) doesn’t suit up. The signing of veteran Xavier Rhodes, who graded fairly poorly in coverage last season, reflects that — except he’s also been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
I’d bet this down to Ravens +3. Consider taking a piece of their +1800 Super Bowl futures at DraftKings Sportsbook before this game kicks off, which was explored in my NFL Week 4 betting guide as well.
Mo Nuwwarah: Titans (+3.5) At Colts
I just can’t wrap my mind around the Colts being this big a favorite over a reasonable NFL team. I watched almost every snap of that Chiefs game, and they should have lost by 10. They did lose and get shut out by the Jaguars, and only a fourth-quarter rally saved them from a loss to the Texans.
It’s astonishing to watch how bad this passing offense has gotten. Matt Ryan looks completely cooked and the offensive line has fallen multiple steps below when they were a top-10 unit the past few years. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are the only weapons that look above replacement. The numbers support what my eyes tell me, as this unit ranks 32nd by EPA/play.
Meanwhile the Titans have played pretty decently for two of their three games. Sure, they got creamed by Buffalo on the road but that’s forgivable. Ryan Tannehill looks much better than Ryan so far, and they still have Derrick Henry. I expect the offense to struggle for the most part, as the Colts did solid work against a good Chiefs offense. But, there are enough pieces here to grind out about 20 points, which should be sufficient.
Overall, I think this game looks pretty ugly on both sides from an offensive standpoint, so I have no idea how the Colts are laying -3.5 here against what I believe is a better team in a low-scoring environment.
Mo’s Epic Rant about Titans +3.5 on the Beat The Closing Line podcast
Evan Scrimshaw: Chiefs (pk) At Buccaneers
If you just look at record, these two teams look equal, but they’re really, really not. The Bucs have an elite defense, but unless Tom Brady plays better, this line should more heavily favor Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been quite himself, but he’s still substantially better than the shell of Brady that Tampa is running out.
The Bucs can create turnovers with their defense, but the first two Packers drives from last week shows that mistake-free offense can score fairly easily. Mahomes should be able to drive down the field and score enough, while Tampa doesn’t look like they can match that. Unless Brady finds a fountain of youth, the Chiefs should emerge victorious.
John Haslbauer: Cowboys (-3) Vs. Commanders
I witnessed the Cowboys in action with my own eyeballs at MetLife Stadium last Monday, and as a devout hater of that organization, I have to say, I was impressed. This defense brought constant pressure against a Giants O-Line that was starting to gain momentum, and Dallas’ O-Line held up tremendously as well. They allowed just one tackle for loss and zero sacks. There’s nothing explosive or dazzling about Cooper Rush’s game, but he knows his limits and has suited the role of game manager well since Dak Prescott’s been on the mend.
Commanders fans would love to see that brand of mistake-free game management from their QB at this point. Carson Wentz has picked up where he left off with the Colts last season, making some head-scratching mistakes at the helm of this offense en route to a 1-2 start despite their skill position talent. Wentz has the lower grade in this matchup according to PFF, which is saying a lot. While Wentz is no stranger to playing against the Cowboys in a rivalry, I don’t trust the direction the Commanders team is heading in. I like the Cowboys by a touchdown at home this week.
Good luck with your Week 4 NFL bets!