Staff picks produced mediocre results in Week 2 as TheLines team’s top plays went 3-3, although things were a bit weird with three wagers on Colts at Jaguars, including a split with one staffer on the Colts. Now, onto Week 3 and corresponding NFL bets.
Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.
TheLines Staff NFL Week 3 Bets Grid
Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.
Favorite Week 3 Bets
Stephen Andress: Falcons (+100) At Seahawks
+100 or better on the Falcons is my favorite bet on the board among odds available entering the weekend. Full disclosure, I teased Falcons +2.5 up to +8.5 thinking Seattle is the worst team in the NFL yet somehow favored in this game. The teaser opportunity is gone, but the Seahawks still shouldn’t be a small favorite.
Atlanta has been surprisingly spunky through two weeks against above-average opponents in the Saints and Rams. The offense has posted the seventh-best success rate against those strong defenses, and quarterback Marcus Mariota sits 12th and fourth in dropback EPA and success rate, respectively, without even utilizing mismatch TE Kyle Pitts.
Meanwhile, the Seattle offense is below average in literally everything. The Seahawks are averaging less than 5 YPP, which would have ranked bottom six last year. Pete Carroll is apparently not even interested in running plays: 48 per game, after the Hawks posted 56 per game last year, worst in the NFL. They once again rank last in that metric so far. Even situation-neutral pace has them 25th.
Falcons should be the favorite.
Eli Hershkovich: Buccaneers (-115) Vs. Packers
The Buccaneers received plenty of assistance from NFL official Shawn Hocculi in their Week 2 victory at the Saints, which would initially cause me to potentially fade them in their ensuing matchup. However, much of the betting market kicked things off by heavily backing the Packers, producing a valuable number on the other side.
Todd Bowles’ defense has gotten the best of Aaron Rodgers in their last two meetings, and there’s plenty of reason to expect a similar result, especially with a depleted and banged-up Green Bay receiving corps.
Mo Nuwwarah: Ravens (-2.5) At Patriots
I liked Ravens -3 early in the week and pounced on that, as detailed on our Tuesday YouTube show. Unfortunately, the market has voiced a disagreement, moving the Ravens down to -2.5. For me, that stinks. But for you, who may not have fired Ravens yet, you have an even more profitable wagering opportunity.
Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill left Baltimore’s secondary as little more than scorched toast last week. I think that epic collapse is coloring market opinion of the Ravens. But this Patriots offense has nothing resembling those types of weapons. Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers do their best work running intermediate routes, and DeVante Parker is a catch radius guy. Furthermore, Meyers hasn’t practiced through Thursday, leaving an already thin assortment of weapons stretched to the brink.
The Ravens received positive injury news so far. Both CBs Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters got in limited practices on Thursday, suggesting they’ll play. This group will be pissed off and locked in after last week’s embarrassment. I trust the Ravens coaching staff to clean these mistakes up.
I’m baffled at this market movement, but I love a play on Baltimore -2.5 here.
Evan Scrimshaw: Ravens (-2.5) At Patriots
The Patriots Week 2 victory over the Steelers looks much less impressive after how bad the Steelers offense looked in the second half on Thursday Night. But, much more importantly Mac Jones still doesn’t look like he’s gotten much better this season. He’s able to play from ahead, as he showed against the Steelers, but when the Patriots fell behind in Week 1, he wasn’t able to lead a comeback.
On the other side, the Ravens offense has been stellar, putting up 62 points in two games this season and showing a liveliness in the passing game that has been missing at times. The rushing optionality that Lamar Jackson offers will be able to blitz the Patriots like the Dolphins did in Week 1. If Jackson can connect on a long shot early, it’ll be a very long day for the Foxborough faithful.
Good luck with your Week 3 NFL bets!