Staff picks booked a loss last week thanks in large part to the Buccaneers, accounting for two of the losses in a 2-3 week.
Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.
TheLines Staff NFL Week 15 Bets Grid
Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.
Favorite Week 15 Bets
Stephen Andress: Chargers (-2.5 -120) Vs. Titans
I bet on the Chargers against the Dolphins as an underdog with Eli. I bet on them as a short favorite this week against the Titans, and I’ve already bet on them -2.5 on the look-ahead line Week 16 at the Colts. This offense is healthier now with Mike Williams and Kennan Allen back, and we’re seeing closer to what we thought we’d see from Justin Herbert before his rib injury early in the season.
I don’t see any unit on the field where Tennessee has an advantage in this game. Even the run game with Derrick Henry has slipped to bottom 10 in the NFL in EPA and Success Rate over the past month. Plus, with the Chargers weapons back, they now face a Titans defense that is bottom five in dropback EPA and Success Rate over that same span.
I also loved how LA rolled Herbert out of the pocket as much as they did last week to mitigate offensive line concerns. LA is back to hovering around a top-10 team in the NFL in my eyes, as presently constructed.
Mo Nuwwarah: Dolphins (+7) At Bills
Ever since Josh Allen hurt his elbow against the Jets, I am pretty skeptical of what this Bills offense has been doing. Yes, it’s been tough defenses like that of the Jets putting the clamps on them, but they just haven’t looked like the freight train they were for the early part of the season and most of 2021.
Given that, and given the conditions here — medium total and potentially poor weather — it’s going to be tough to cover a number this big.
We’re also getting a buy-low spot here on the Dolphins. Everyone saw their offense crap the bed on national TV against the Chargers, coming off another poor game against the 49ers. Media narrative is that this Miami offense has been figured out.
But, even just a dozen games into his career, I’m already trusting Mike McDaniel to make the necessary adjustments and get this ship moving forward again. He’s shown the ability to stay a step ahead of opposing defenses thus far.
And as far as the way this team matches up against the Bills, I do think this secondary is beatable. Tre’Davious White hasn’t regained his star status and they’re still without Micah Hyde and Von Miller, while key coverage LB Matt Milano is banged up if he even plays.
I got +7.5 here on Monday or Tuesday but still think +7 is a good play.
Eli Hershkovich: Jaguars (+4) vs. Cowboys
For a full breakdown of this wager, check out my Week 15 NFL bets column.
John Haslbauer: Chargers (-3 -105) Vs. Titans
A pair of 7-6 teams enter this matchup with the home team laying three points. Seems like a toss-up matchup on the surface, but the eye test leading into this game would suggest anything but.
The Chargers were in control from start to finish against the 8-5 Miami Dolphins in prime time last Sunday night, finally beginning to show the potential of their offense with a fully healthy arsenal of weapons. Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams, Palmer and Everett have not played many games altogether this season. But, they’ve shown to be one of the most potent offensive groups in the NFL when healthy, which bodes well for their upcoming matchup with Tennessee.
The Titans, however, are trending in the wrong direction. While still in control of the AFC South, they’ve now lost three straight entering this week, including an embarrassing 36-22 loss at home to the Jaguars. As the season’s progressed, the Titans have started to become exposed as a one-dimensional team that will go as far as Derrick Henry can carry them, still searching for answers to fill the void left behind in the passing game by AJ Brown.
These are two bad defenses, but the Chargers have the offensive firepower to continue to pour it on a Tennessee defense which has allowed 71 points over the last two weeks. I like the Chargers and Over 46.5 this week in LA.
Evan Scrimshaw: Patriots (+1.5) At Raiders
In a battle between Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, the Patriots find themselves heading to Vegas this week. Frankly, I don’t get how they’re underdogs. The Pats aren’t great, and it’s hard to know how Monday night would have gone if they had had to play Kyler Murray, but this comes down to two edges — defense, and coaching.
We’ll start with the Pats defense, which is third by DVOA and fourth by Success Rate. The Raiders have had some success recently on the ground, but against a top-10 rush defense by most metrics, they’re going to need Derek Carr to make plays. With a defensive line that is second in pressure rate while league average in blitz rate, the Pats are gonna get in Carr’s face and put him on his back.
More importantly, however, is the coaching disparity. Belichick against McDaniels might be the most lopsided matchup in the league, and where Belichick will have his team ready, McDaniels hasn’t shown any ability to get his team ready to play or an ability to coach down the end of games. Given that, and the likely Raiders struggles to score, New England’s the play for me.
Good luck with your Week 15 NFL bets!