Last week’s abbreviated picks went 1-2, although it must be said Eli Hershkovich took a nasty beat on the Giants at Cowboys under with the meaningless last-minute touchdown. In any case, onto the staff’s favorite NFL Week 13 bets.
Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.
TheLines Staff NFL Week 13 Bets Grid
Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.
Favorite Week 13 Bets
Stephen Andress: Steelers (+1) At Falcons
I’ve bet on Pittsburgh in back-to-back weeks, and I’m going to make it a third. There was a rogue +1 earlier this week that I teased with a 6.5-point -130 teaser, but I still like the Steelers to just win this game.
Since coming out of the bye week, Pittsburgh is on the upswing. The offense ranks 11th EPA, 12th Success Rate, second in rush EPA and fifth in rushing Success Rate. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett has also posted a positive Completion Percentage Over Expected.
The Steelers defense since the bye week is also top 10 in EPA/play allowed and Success Rate and top three in those metrics against the run.
Across the board, Pittsburgh ranks better than Atlanta over the past three weeks. The Falcons‘ only redeeming quality really this season has been their rush game, and they don’t have the best one in this matchup.
Mo Nuwwarah: Jets (+3) At Vikings
I feel like I got away with one betting the Vikings last week against the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Sure, they won by seven to seemingly cover the -2.5 spread with room to spare. However, they got significantly outgained, by -2 YPP. Most concerning, Mac Jones absolutely shredded them for 8.7 YPA dropping back.
From a bottom-10 quarterback operating an unexciting offense, that’s worrying stuff. This defense is just pretty bad. The eye test says so, and so do the computers, with DVOA ranking them 24th in the NFL.
Speaking of DVOA, it rates the Jets as a significantly stronger team than Minnesota. I’m in agreement, ranking them a hair higher in my NFL power ranking this week.
And now they have a QB who can complete forward passes in Mike White. The bar is just really low for the offense when the defense is as good as what the Jets have run out there. And White may be good enough to clear that bar. Certainly, it seems hard to imagine he’ll be a downgrade from the Zach Wilson disaster.
On defense, the Jets bring an elite rate of pressure (fourth-highest) while blitzing fewer than almost anyone (fourth-lowest rate). Dalvin Cook looks like a shell of himself and Kirk Cousins will be throwing into what should be good coverage under pressure. He’s been a bit better this year under duress but I still don’t think he can be trusted against a top unit. We saw what the Dallas Cowboys did to him.
I like the Jets and I have some moneyline as well.
John Haslbauer: Packers (-3.5) At Bears
“I still own you” was the quote from Aaron Rodgers to the Bears faithful last year and that dominance has still continued into the 2022 season despite the Packers‘ struggles. Rodgers is 23-5 over his career against the Bears, and the Packers enter this matchup on a streak of seven consecutive wins against their division rivals.
Green Bay cruised to an easy 27-10 victory in their first matchup Week 2 this season. Since then, the Bears have traded away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, and become arguably the worst defense in the NFL (31st according to PFF), surrendering more than 27 points in each of their last five games, and losing each.
The Packers have been one of the biggest disappointments this season, but a difficult schedule (fourth SOS) is mostly to blame. Of their eight losses this season, seven have come to playoff teams if the season were to end today. With a full complement of skill position players at his disposal this week, I expect Rodgers to feast on this Bears defense as per usual, and will be doubling down on Over 44.5 points.
Evan Scrimshaw: Lions (-1) Vs. Jaguars
The Lions have been one of this season’s least surprising teams in a sense — their bevy of recent high draft picks has given them a solid base of raw and inconsistent talent. They struggled earlier this season with closing games, but in recent weeks have been better, and against a Jags team, they should be bigger favorites.
The Lions offense is the top ranked of the four units in this game, and their passing attack sits 14th per DVOA against the 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense in Jacksonville. The Lions are eighth in the league in YPP and Jared Goff’s ability to be the ultimate game manager works well in the Lions scheme.
Their rest advantage against the Jags matters here. After their Thanksgiving Day game, the Lions have had an extra three days off, which should make the difference against a Jaguars team that is inconsistent and rarely able to string two good games together.
Good luck with your Week 13 NFL bets!