TheLines Staff: 3 Favorite NFL Week 12 Bets

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 23, 2022
Week 12 NFL bets

It was an unexciting, breakeven week for staff bets at 2-2-1 in Week 11. Onto the staff’s favorite NFL Week 12 bets. There aren’t quite as many write-ups this week due to the holidays, but you can still use the grid below to examine the full selection of wagers.

Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.

TheLines Staff NFL Week 12 Bets Grid

Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.

Favorite Week 12 Bets

Stephen Andress: Patriots +3 or Patriots +8.5 Teaser Leg

I’m sort-of going heads up here with Mo. As I write this, Patriots +3 is no longer available. If that’s still the case when you read this, I think Patriots on a teaser leg is good. There seem to be a lot of solid Week 12 teasers. Mo is going to tell you the Patriots defensive numbers are inflated based on poor competition. That’s likely true, but it doesn’t mean the Vikings will be able to block for Kirk Cousins either.

Minnesota has allowed a 54% pressure rate when LT Christian Darrisaw (Out) was off the field the last two weeks, per SIS football. For perspective, the Patriots have the No. 2 pressure rate defense at 30%. That’s a fundamental flaw for the Vikings offense this week. If you can’t pass protect, you better run the Mike Zimmer offense for five yards per carry.

And if we’re downgrading the Patriots defense for weak competition, is it not fair to upgrade the offense after having to play the Jets‘ fantastic defense two of the past three games? The Vikings defense is not the Jets. Minnesota ranks in key metrics:

  • 21st in pressure rate
  • 26th in success rate
  • 30th in yards per play allowed

I actually think the Patriots have a better chance of moving the ball against the Vikings flawed defense than vice versa. Perhaps, Mo and I both win. The Patriots can cover the teaser leg but Vikings still win by 3-7 points. That’s a wide margin.

Mo Nuwwarah: Vikings (-2.5) Vs. Patriots

The Dallas Cowboys exposed the Vikings as the frauds they were last week — at least in terms of Super Bowl contention. But, the market already knew the Vikings were frauds, which is why they were home underdogs in the first place there.

So why did this line move multiple points off the look-ahead line through a key number? Because the Patriots shut down yet another clown quarterback in Zach Wilson and the Jets?

That just doesn’t move the needle for me.

Yes, the Pats have an elite defense statistically and bring an elite pressure rate, the exact formula to shut down Cousins. But, these stats are all inflated by playing an unbelievably soft string of opposing QBs. In their past four, the Patriots have faced Wilson twice, Sam Ehlinger and Justin Fields. While I’m probably the top Fields stan out there, reading the field and passing from the pocket remains hit or miss with him.

Say what you want about Cousins, and I have always been a skeptic despite his strong numbers at times, but he’s still a solid veteran. He isn’t just going to melt down into a puddle of 3 YPP goo like these other guys.

And Mac Jones has been among the worst performing QBs in the league this year. He ranks 28th in CPOE+EPA composite. I don’t believe in this Vikes secondary, but Jones isn’t the man to exploit it.

The Vikings have the better team, play at home on a short week, and we’re getting a reduced price after they got predictably steamrolled by a Super Bowl contender. I’m buying.

Eli Hershkovich: Cowboys/Giants u45.5

My first total bet all season isn’t for the faint of heart, but it’s only fitting to undergo a Thanksgiving Day sweat with all of the food you’ll be consuming. For a full breakdown, check out my Week 12 NFL bets column.

Good luck with your Week 12 NFL bets!

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Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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