TheLines Staff: 5 Favorite NFL Week 11 Bets

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 18, 2022
Week 11 NFL bets

To say the staff’s favorite bets had a rough Week 10 would be underselling things just a tad. Posted plays went 0-5, giving back a chunk from what had been a solid year for the picks (they’re now around .500). We’ll try to get back on the horse with our favorite NFL Week 11 bets.

Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.

TheLines Staff NFL Week 11 Bets Grid

Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.

Favorite Week 11 Bets

Stephen Andress: Bears (+3) At Falcons

Backing the Falcons to win a game by more than a field goal is scary, because the Atlanta offense is 29th in situation neutral pace and at the bottom of the league in passing over expectation. So this offense has longer drives, which leads to fewer possessions and invites variance each week.

It’s even scarier when they don’t even have the better rushing offense in the game. Since Justin Fields has turned into the trigger man of the next Cam Newton/Lamar Jackson-type NFL offense, Chicago is superior to Atlanta moving the ball. Over the past five weeks, the Bears are ahead of the Falcons in overall EPA, rush EPA and Success Rate.

I’ll take the points with the Bears.

Mo Nuwwarah: Giants (-3) Vs. Lions

I really wanted to write up a play on Bills over their team total, but with the location of the game in flux due to the weather, I’ll have to go a different direction. And I unfortunately can’t write up my own biggest wager of the week on Chargers +7 as that number is long gone.

So that bring me to Giants -3 at home against the Lions.

I understand the Giants got outgained last week by the lowly Texans, but much of that came with the Giants nursing a lead in the second half.

More importantly, in my opinion, we’re seeing an overvalued Lions team coming off of two pretty fraudulent victories. Two weeks ago, the Packers soundly outgained them 5.6 YPP to 4.5 only for Aaron Rodgers to singlehandedly throw the game away — literally — with three inexcusable picks. Then, the Bears completely dominated them from the line of scrimmage. Thanks to the brilliance of Justin Fields, they posted a whopping 7 YPP to Detroit’s 5.5. This time, a couple of huge plays including a pick-six and a missed extra point kept Detroit in it for the late win.

I just really want to sell this team coming off these two wins. And I love the coaching mismatch here in New York’s favor. Brian Daboll has done brilliant work all year to put a mediocre roster in position to steal wins. On the other hand, Dan Campbell has taken a roster that many pegged as a dark horse contender for the division and/or a playoff spot, and piloted it to another lost season.

I know the Giants aren’t near as good as their record, but I don’t see how they can be considered barely better than this sad Lions team, which this market number reflects.

Brett Gibbons: Jets (+3.5) Vs. Patriots

I actually like the Jets to win this game outright, but I don’t see a fair line for that available at books. +3.5 in the NFL translates to about +175 on the moneyline and nothing remotely close to that is available.

I promise I haven’t lost my mind and I know the Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots in 13 straight tries. Yes, I know they’re on the road. I’m aware the Jets just lost to the Patriots a few weeks ago. But in terms of trajectory, these teams are going in opposite directions. Both are coming off a bye week and resounding wins, but in such a low-total game, points are extremely valuable.

We’re getting the Jets on the favorable side of three points here with a total of 38.

Over the last three weeks, New England is the worst offense in the NFL in terms of EPA and success rate. Over that same period, the Jets are third in dropback EPA allowed and sixth in overall EPA on defense. The Pats could not throw on them last time, and they won’t be able to again.

The last time out, Zach Wilson attempted 41 passes on the back of Breece Hall’s season-ending injury. Allowing him to throw 41 times was inexcusable and resulted in three picks. The following game against Buffalo, those attempts dropped to 25 as the team figured out how to run an offense without Hall. I expect a game plan more akin to the Bills game with less Wilson.

In a backwards-logic situation, less QB means better offense for the Jets. I like the 13-game streak to end this weekend.

Evan Scrimshaw: Cowboys (-1.5) At Vikings

The Vikings are the most unlikely one-loss team in the league, mostly because of how lucky they’ve been so far this season. If Josh Allen had received a clean snap last week or the Dolphins had their starting QB, this miracle run would easily be dead. The Vikings are a perfectly mediocre team — bottom half of the league in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA. That doesn’t make them worthy of their record, or as talented as it suggests.

On the other side, the Cowboys are 12th on offense and second on defense, and some of that 12th reflects the Cooper Rush games. Yes, the Cowboys undeniably have a coaching disadvantage in this game, but they still have the better team. Throw in the fact they’re second in the league in pressure rate against the 21st OL by pressure allowed, and you see how the Vikings will be unable to score too many points.

The Cowboys should be able to score enough to win, especially against a Vikings D that ranks 26th in yards per rush allowed. They should be favored by more than a field goal, and because they’re not, it has to be the Cowboys.

John Haslbauer: Commanders (-3) Vs. Texans

I had high hopes at the beginning of the season that the Houston Texans would be cover machines this year, not good enough to win many games, but young, hungry, and scrappy enough to keep games close. Houston started off on the right foot with a solid 3-1-1 start ATS, but it seems they’ve fallen back to reality since, going 1-3 ATS over the last four weeks.  At this point of the season, we can clearly dub the Texans as the worst team in the NFL. Only a select few teams exist in this league I’d be comfortable backing them to stay within three against.

On the flip side, the Commanders are red hot entering this match up. They’ve won four of their last five games and are 4-0-1 ATS over that span. Yes, playing the worst team in the league after beating your division rivals, the 8-0 Eagles, on the road on Monday Night Football is a quintessential recipe for a let down spot. But the Commanders are a 5-5 team that still finds itself in last place in the NFC East, so I expect them to come motivated and ride the newfound confidence that comes with beating an undefeated divisional opponent on the road. As long as Wentz remains sidelined, I don’t anticipate this hot streak coming to a stop.

Good luck with your Week 11 NFL bets!

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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