TheLines Staff: 4 Favorite NFL Week 10 Bets

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 11, 2022
Week 10 NFL bets

Staff bets had a good run in Week 9 with a 3-1-1 result, only the author’s play ending up being a loser. That does include a pair of picks on the Seahawks though, a popular side among the staff that came home with ease.

Each week during NFL season, several members of the staff will select their favorite play of the week. I’ll compile them here along with best available prices. Readers can then decide if any are worth following. Let’s dive in.

TheLines Staff NFL Week 10 Bets Grid

Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join TheLines Discord channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.

Favorite Week 10 Bets

Stephen Andress: Jaguars (+9.5) At Chiefs

Wait to see if you can get a +10 here, but do not let this slip past +8.5. I continue to hold the opinion that the Jaguars are, at worst, an average team that has had miserable luck in the win-loss column. Jacksonville might actually be a good team, too. The underlying metrics agree with me.

The Jaguars offense ranks No. 11 in DVOA vs. No. 23 Chiefs defense. In EPA, the Jags are No. 10, and the Chiefs D is No. 21. It’s No. 6 vs. No. 22 in Success Rate. Plus, the Jacksonville offensive line is No. 7 in pressure allowed, despite poor blocking win rate metrics, meaning QB Trevor Lawrence is doing a good job of not holding the football too long. That will come in handy against a KC defense that ranks top 10 in blitz rate.

My concern is the type of coverage Lawrence might face. He ranks No. 29 in completion percentage and No. 30 passer rating vs. man coverage but 11th and 9th, respectively, vs. zone. Kansas City has steadily increased its rate of man defense since Week 5, played the most its played all season vs. the Titans last week. However, it still used zone coverage on 54% of snaps.

I think #Duuuuvaaallll does enough here to keep it inside a big number, backed by a top-10 Success Rate and pressure rate defense to limit the explosive plays from Patrick Mahomes.

Eli Hershkovich: Browns (+3.5) At Dolphins

You can find my full breakdown of this game, along with my other Week 10 NFL bets, here.

Mo Nuwwarah: Broncos (+3 -115 or +130 Moneyline) At Titans

The Titans are a team I have faded quite a bit this year when not facing my other favorite fade, the Colts. I’m excited to bet against them once again in Week 10.

The Broncos remain an underrated, if obviously flawed, team. I’ve been filled with fury plenty of times while watching this team underperform. But, the bottom line is, this team has +0.7 net yards per play. That mark puts them on par with the Chiefs and Cowboys, two teams the market is typically rushing to back on a weekly basis. The Broncos consistently move the ball and they consistently prevent the other team from doing so.

And this week, they get a Titans team that has been the polar opposite. Tennessee has gotten good results (5-3 record) despite -0.6 NYPP and a -9 scoring differential. The Titans aren’t a good team.

Furthermore, while Denver comes in a bit healthier after enjoying a bye, the Titans are ravaged by injuries. Ryan Tannehill looks like he’ll retake the reins to the offense, a massive boost. Still, he may still not be 100% after spraining his ankle. The defense is where you can really see carnage with up to six starters — including ace pass rusher Jeffery Simmons — potentially out.

I can’t understand how Denver is catching any points here let alone a full field goal in some shops. I think it’s fine to take the points or the moneyline as I like Denver to win this game more often than the market expects.

Evan Scrimshaw: Seahawks (+2.5) Vs. Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are not good. I know they have names that people have heard of, but aging soon-to-be divorcee Tom Brady is leading a mediocre offense. He’s 15th by EPA/Play amongst quarterbacks, and the Bucs are dead last in the league in yards/rush. You’d think the Bucs would understand that they need to stop burning first-down opportunities with runs up the gut that go nowhere, and yet we keep seeing them do just that.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks actually just are a good team. Top half of the league in both offensive and defensive DVOA, the Seahawks have found something. As unlikely as it seems, Geno Smith has been amazing this year – eighth in the league by EPA/play – and the Seahawks walk into Munich with the better quarterback. On defense, the one-dimensional nature of the Bucs offense means the Seahawks should be able to cover it well, as they’ve improved their defense the last few weeks.

Seattle’s the better team and it’s a neutral field game. That’s all there is to it sometimes.

John Haslbauer: Rams (-2.5) Vs. Cardinals

It’s been a disappointing season so far for the Rams, but despite their 3-5 start, the NFC West is still in shouting distance, so they’ll have their full attention on this in-division home game. I’m taking a bit of a risk here that Matthew Stafford will in fact clear the concussion protocol and be given the green light to suit up, but early signs point towards him playing.

Despite the mediocre record, the Rams Defense remains as stout as expected coming into this season, still ranking No. 1 in PFF’s Defensive Power Rankings. They held the Cardinals in check in their first meeting at Arizona in Week 3 (winning 20-12), and although the Cardinals will get a boost with Deandre Hopkins back on the field his time around, the Rams defense has been stout against him so far. In his first two games against the Rams since joining the Cardinals, Hopkins has failed to reach 70 receiving yards in either.

It’s clear from watching Hard Knocks (new Cardinals In-Season episodes airing Wednesdays at 9PM only on HBO and HBO Max), that the loss of Budda Baker to a leg injury will be a significant one, so I’ll take the Rams for a season sweep this week.

Good luck with your Week 10 NFL bets!

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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