2025 Sony Open Preview, Odds: Everything You Need To Know About Waialae Country Club

The 2025 PGA Tour season continues to its second leg in Hawaii. Next stop is the 2025 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Find Sony Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, and Corey Conners project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

The Hawaii Swing continues as the PGA Tour hops islands from Maui to Honolulu for the 2025 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Geographic location is where the similarities begin and end between Kapalua and Waialae. In contrast to the gargantuan, undulated fairways and greens at last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, Waialae CC falls on the other end of the spectrum. It’s a tight, claustrophobic, and positional golf course that rewards precision. Longer hitters in the field don’t have the same advantage here as other courses.

The newly grown-out rough on the Seth Raynor-designed property only accentuates the importance of players keeping their ball on the fairway. Approach play from 125-200 yards and Bermuda putting are consistent characteristics across contenders at this event.

Without further ado, let’s run through the key facts and info about Waialae Country Club ahead of betting 2025 Sony Open odds.

2025 SONY OPEN ODDS: Outrights

Here are the outright winner odds for the Sony Open at golf betting sites this week. Scroll to the bottom of this post to compare odds for different markets across betting apps in your state. And be sure to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes before making any wagers.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

A total of 144 players make up the field for the Sony Open. It’s a more decorated list of headliners than the event has seen in recent years. Many players already find themselves in Hawaii for the Sentry, which expanded to its largest field in tournament history. Notable debutants this week include Luke Clanton, Thomas Detry, Nick Dunlap, and Matt McCarty. That creates a very interesting dynamic from a betting perspective. Bettors need to decide whether to abandon course history in favor of recent form. The venue has proven very sticky for those who have cracked the code at Waialae in previous years.

An impressive 10 OWGR top-30 players tee it up this week. Former champion Hideki Matsuyama is the headliner and presumptive favorite as he looks in peak form already to kick off the Aloha Swing. Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Russell Henley, and Tom Kim round out the list of expected favorites.

It will be an emotional tournament week because of the 2024 death of that year’s champion Grayson Murray, who prevailed in climactic fashion with a walk-off birdie in a playoff over Keegan Bradley and Byeong Hun An.

Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Russell Henley, Ryan Palmer, and Zach Johnson round out the list of former champions in the field this week.

INTRODUCTION TO WAIALAE COUNTRY CLUB

Waialae Country Club is a short resort course originally designed by Seth Raynor in 1927. It features Bermuda grass throughout. Though susceptible to coastal rainfall, the course tends to play firm and fast in both the fairways and greens. Runouts contribute to lower-than-average Driving Accuracy and Greens-In-Regulation percentages. In 2023, the rough was grown out from its usual average of 2.25 inches up to 3 inches. As a result, low-scoring trends were held in check. The field median score (-9) dipped to its lowest since 2018.

Waialae features persistent doglegs and tight tree lines, historically neutralizing any advantage for longer hitters off the tee. Instead, the course forces driving accuracy and class short game. It’s a stark 180 from the massive property and wide open fairways at Kapalua. These tightened grounds should breed a more reasonable winning score in the high teens to low 20s under par.

Like Kapalua, Waialae is exposed to the Hawaiian coast, and the severity of the wind will be worth monitoring throughout the week. If the weather continues to stay as calm as it has in the last few years, it will be easy to see scores push beyond -20. However, if sustained winds pick up as they did for Cam Smith’s playoff win over Brendan Steele in 2020, this course can become a grind quickly.

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

According to Data Golf, Waialae CC is second to only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history. This is as good a week as any to factor past results into your research process. Similar to the trends noticed at Kapalua last week, it’s fair to connect repeated history at the Sony Open with players’ preparation. Many players will be shaking off the rust in their first competitive rounds since November.

Over the last five years, 16 players recorded multiple top-15 finishes at the Sony Open. That list includes Corey Conners, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Andrew Putnam, Russell Henley, Hayden Buckley, Keith Mitchell, Webb Simpson, Nick Taylor, Keegan Bradley, Patton Kizzire, Byeong Hun An, and Taylor Montgomery.

Thirteen players avoided missing the cut over the last five years (min. three appearances): Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Nick Taylor, Cam Davis, Si Woo Kim, Brendon Todd, Adam Svensson, Brian Harman, Maverick McNealy, Denny McCarthy, Sepp Straka, Harris English, and Greyson Sigg.

Matt Kuchar

Nobody loves beginning their year in Hawaii more than Matt Kuchar. He recorded eight top-13 finishes over his last 11 Sony Open starts. Finishing T7 in two of the last three years, we should expect to see uncharacteristically short odds on the 2019 Sony Open champion when odds are released Monday.

After Kuchar, the rest of the top 10 in terms of total strokes gained at Waialae Country Club include Corey Conners, Webb Simpson, Daniel Berger, Chris Kirk, Byeong Hun An, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, and Si Woo Kim.

Comp Courses

If you think of any courses where players like Webb Simpson or Kevin Kisner have played well, you’ve identified the top comp courses to Waialae CC.

Sedgefield CC, Sea Island, and Harbour Town are the best comp courses that come to mind. Each serves as shorter positional courses with Bermuda grass throughout and has favored more accurate hitters with strong short games.

El Camaleon, Port Royal, Innisbrook Resort, Colonial CC, and Pebble Beach also fit the bill, sharing a similar profile as wind-exposed coastal courses with relatively easy scoring.

The top players in comp course history over the last 36 rounds are Russell Henley, Eric Cole, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, JT Poston, Daniel Berger, Michael Kim, Byeong Hun An, Tom Kim, Taylor Montgomery, and Ben Griffin.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2023 SONY OPEN ODDS

• SG: APP / Prox 125-200
• Driving Accuracy / SG: OTT (<7,200 Yard Courses)
• Par-4 Scoring: 400-500
• GIRs Gained
• Birdies or Better Gained
• SG: ARG
• SG: P (Bermuda)
• Course & Comp Course History

Waialae CC’s concentration of 10 par 4s between 400-500 yards makes for a repeatable list of contenders. The top 10 players from this range predominantly displayed strong showings at the Sony Open: Justin Lower, Davis Thompson, Ryo Hisatsune, Chan Kim, Robert MacIntyre, Adam Svensson, Luke Clanton, Mackenzie Hughes, Corey Conners, and Brendon Todd.

This concentration of par 4s brings about 67% of approach shots funneled between 125-200 yards. That’s also been a proven indicator for contenders at this event. The top-10 from this range are: Kurt Kitayama, Rico Hoey, Mac Meissner, Luke Clanton, Joel Dahmen, Henrik Norlander, Nico Echavarria, Brice Garnett, and Lucas Glover.

Short Game tends to be one of the more inconsequential stats on TOUR. However, it’s key here. I’ll be dialing up that stat category much higher in my model than most other weeks. Considering the more grown-out rough, this is especially the case. The top 10 players in SG: Short Game are Harry Hall, Mackenzie Hughes, Denny McCarthy, Ben Griffin, Vince Whaley, Maverick McNealy, Billy Horschel, Eric Cole, Matt Kuchar, and Zach Johnson.

Driving Distance And Waialae Success

There’s been no correlation between driving distance and success at Waialae CC. Given the shorter layout, most players have instead found success dialing it back off the tee to prioritize playing out of the fairway for controlled approaches. Players are hitting these fairways slightly below tour average, which gives an advantage to the more accurate players off the tee. The top 10 players in Driving Accuracy are Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Carson Young, Joel Dahmen, Daniel Berger, Brice Garnett, Zach Johnson, Ben Kohles, Matt Kuchar, Luke Clanton, and Adam Svensson.

Moreover, players who rank towards the top in terms of SG: OTT on comp short courses under 7,200 yards should indicate those who can best position themselves on Waialae’s layout. The top 10 in this category include Keith Mitchell, Luke Clanton, Austin Eckroat, Joel Dahmen, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Sepp Straka, Tom Hoge, and Rico Hoey.

Wrapping this altogether, the ideal player for this week should rank above average in SG: APP, Prox: 125-200, Par-4: 400-500, Fairways Gained, SG: OTT (<7,200 Yard Courses), SG: ARG, and SG: P (Bermuda). Just 10 players fit each of those criteria: Luke Clanton, Austin Eckroat, Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, Mac Meissner, Lucas Glover, Seamus Power, and JJ Spaun.

Correlated Stats

Looking at the correlation charts, there is a notable drop-off in the importance of Par-5 Scoring at the Sony Open. There are only two on the scorecard, and both are easily reachable in two for the full field. We also see the concentrated hole ranges of 400-450 and 450-500 make a notable jump into the top 10, and a corresponding jump in the importance of Proximity 150-175 & 175-200.

Distance stats like Driving Distance and Proximity 200+ have not correlated with success here in recent years.

Taking each of the above key categories into account, 10 players rate above average in all 15 top categories: Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, CT Pan, Billy Horschel, Harry Hall, JT Poston, Matt Kuchar, Eric Cole, Robert MacIntyre, Michael Thorbjornsen.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Tom Kim

The 2024 season was a bit of a setback (if we can call it that) for the 22-year-old. After bursting onto the scene with wins in his first two full seasons on the PGA TOUR, the prodigal phenom — who turned heads as the odds-on pre-tournament favorite at the 2024 Sony Open — failed to add on to that early win total. The lack of wins doesn’t tell the full story, however, as Tom Kim was in contention often last season, with two runner-up finishes to world-beater Scottie Scheffler. With no Scheffler to haunt him in Hawaii, a higher ceiling awaits Kim.

Waialae CC is the quintessential course fit for Kim, who atones for his lack of driving distance with elite driving accuracy, mid-iron approach play, and spike Bermuda putting upside. He’s proven his affinity for short Bermuda courses already, with each of his first three PGA Tour wins coming at comp courses in TPC Summerlin and Sedgefield Country Club. Kim tacked on two of his best finishes last season on comp courses (2nd at The Travelers, T18 at the RBC Heritage), showing a clear trend of top performances on short venues that reward control off the tee.

Paul Tesori joins Kim on the bag this week for the first time at the Sony Open. That’s a partnership to be optimistic about, as Tesori had posted a stretch of seven consecutive top-20 finishes alongside his last running mate, Webb Simpson. Entering in solid form as an ideal course profile fit, Tom Kim will be a fixture on my betting card when odds release on Monday.

2025 SONY OPEN: DFS Player Pool

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 Sony Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Russell Henley
Corey Conners
Luke Clanton
Hideki Matsuyama

Tier 2

Tom Kim
Billy Horschel
Si Woo Kim
Byeong Hun An

Tier 3

Keith Mitchell
Ben Griffin
JT Poston
Harry Hall
Matt Kuchar
Austin Eckroat

Tier 4

JJ Spaun
Lucas Glover
Mac Meissner
Daniel Berger

Tier 5

Joel Dahmen
Hayden Buckley
Kurt Kitayama
Ben Kohles
Carson Young

Model Results & Breakdown

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, Course & Comp Course History, and Prox: 125-200, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: ARG, Bogey Avoidance, SG: OTT (<7,200 Courses), Fairways Gained, SG: P (L36 + Bermuda), and Par 4: 400-500.

Model Favorites

It would not be Sony Open week without seeing Russell Henley’s name atop the model. Henley has had countless close calls at Waialae CC since picking up his first career PGA Tour win here in 2013, including two top-five finishes over the last three years. He ranks top five in Comp Course History, Driving Accuracy, and SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds. He figures to find himself in the mix yet again this week.

After Henley, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Luke Clanton, Hideki Matsuyama, Ben Griffin, Corey Conners, Matt Kuchar, Lucas Glover, Daniel Berger, Billy Horschel, and Austin Eckroat.

When odds release Monday, I’ll look to start my card with Tom Kim, Luke Clanton, and Daniel Berger, depending on prices.

Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2025 Sony Open odds!

2025 SONY OPEN Odds Comparison Table

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