Sony Open Bets: Russell Redemption Headlines Golf Betting Card

Written By John Haslbauer on January 11, 2023
sony open bets

We avoided heartbreak at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week, fortuitously leaving Collin Morikawa off the outright card and safely settling for the T10 placement instead. The same could not be said about the Sony Open last year, however, after the unfortunate scene of Russell Henley’s demise. We’ll look for a better finish to get on the board in 2023 Sony Open bets at Waialae Country Club.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Sony Open previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to place Sony Open bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY SONY OPEN BETTING CARD

The first decision to be made this week is whether or not to buy into Tom Kim, the 12-1 favorite making his debut at this course at 20 years old. Is he on a heater? Is he the second coming of Tiger Woods? It’s scary just how many signs point to the latter on Kim, who has not backed down from new courses regardless of fit. He has made abundantly clear that he thrives on shorter, easier courses that reward driving accuracy, elite iron play, and the ability to catch a hot putter. So while this may well be your quintessential Tom Kim course, I can’t justify the 12-1 price. Instead, I’m very content to have landed on a group of veterans with proven, repeated experience on this course as well as other recent comp, coastal layouts.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is the same unit structure for Sony Open bets to kick off the new year.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

Sony Open Bets: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Russell Henley

My Bet: +2800

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m going (going) back (back) to Henley.

If you’d asked me the Monday after the 2022 Sony Open, I’d probably swear off ever betting Henley in this event again, saying if he can’t close a 7-stroke back nine lead, he never will. But, a win at Mayakoba can quickly absolve all those reservations, in the hopes that the Russ Buss turns this Hawaii trip into a revenge tour.

If you look at the stats, Russell Henley is Tom Kim without the killer instinct. They rank No. 1 & No. 2 in both SG: APP and Fairways Gained, have shown consistency on shorter courses, and are at their best putting on Bermuda greens. Henley also carries the added benefit of course history, winning this event in 2013 and ranking No. 3 in the field in terms of total strokes gained at Waialae CC. Moreover, Henley ranks No. 1 in terms of Comp Course History with top-10 finishes at El Camaleon, Sedgefield CC, and Harbour Town since 2021. The decision to back Henley here is a decision to get the same profile player as Tom Kim at 2.5x the odds. What could go wrong!

Corey Conners

My Bet: +2800

Best Odds Still Available:

Corey Conners officially supplanted Webb Simpson as the Course History King at Waialae CC, gaining the most strokes of anyone in this field over the last five years with finishes of T39, T3, T12, and T11.

The case for Collin Morikawa at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week would have been that despite his long-term putting issues, he has never lost strokes putting on the greens at Kapalua. That is the same story here for Conners, who has gained strokes putting here in each of his first four Sony Open appearances.

So anytime you have reason to be optimistic about Conners’ putter, you should feel good about his prospects to contend in that tournament. At Waialae CC, a steady formula of accuracy OTT and precision on mid-iron approaches should continue to be one we can count on from the Canadian. Ranking top-5 in Comp Course History, SG: APP, Greens In Regulation, Opportunities Gained, and Fairways Gained, it’s an ideal set up in store for Conners in search of his first win since the 2019 Valero Open.

Brian Harman

My Bet: +2800

Best Odds Still Available:

A bet on Brian Harman is not one that typically instills confidence, considering he’s still in pursuit of his first PGA TOUR victory since the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship. But if we can look past the inability to close out a tournament over the last five years, the 28-1 odds on a player ranked No. 23 in the world with five straight top-25 finishes to start the 2022-2023 season are a great value.

Amidst the hot start to this season, Harman has already picked up two runner-up finishes on short, easy scoring, coastal resort venues between the WWT Championship at Mayakoba and The RSM Classic. Harman has a spotty history at the Sony Open, but peaked in 2018 with a T4 finish, and enters the event this year in better preceding form than ever before. Harman has performed best on shorter tracks his whole career, and ranking No. 1 in SG: TOT (<7,200 Yard Courses) and top-10 in SG: APP, Prox: 125-200, and GIRs Gained, he has all the tools needed to contend at Waialae CC.

Si Woo Kim

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

It was a relatively quiet 2022 season by Si Woo’s standards, as a cold putter overshadowed a very consistent year from tee to green. He should bring some confidence to the new year after getting the call to represent the International Team at the 2022 Presidents Cup, which may have carried into his last event at the Houston Open. Kim finished a modest T35, but posted the second best approach week of his career, gaining 8.8 strokes with his irons. I have high hopes for Si Woo this week, and if the equipment change to the broomstick putter breeds any similar improvements to what Aaron Wise has benefited from, the other areas of his game are in a perfect place to contend here.

SONY OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Russell Henley

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s common practice to safeguard a Russell Henley outright bet on a clear course fit with a supplemental FRL wager as well. By now it’s abundantly clear that Henley is most apt to go low on short, positional, easy Bermuda layouts. He finished one stroke off the first round lead at this event last year, so we know he’s capable of getting off to a hot start.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

Before Russell Henley and Sebastian Munoz paved the way as FRL mainstays, it was Keegan Bradley who set the stage. He’s on record as saying he feels most comfortable trying to get out to an early lead, and with drastic improvements made to his putting last year, he’s now proven capable of going low in easy scoring conditions.

Ben Griffin

My Bet: +9500

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m going to continue to back Ben Griffin on short, easy, Bermuda courses until he gives us a reason not too. The PGA TOUR rookie has launched onto the scene already with top-5 finishes at the Bermuda Championship and Wyndham Championship. Ranking top-10 in both SG: APP and Birdies or Better Gained, Griffin has the tools to go low in these conditions.

Patton Kizzire

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Kizzire is no stranger to first round leads, and enters a comfort course this week, the site of his last PGA TOUR victory in 2018. He’s at his best on short Bermuda courses that take driver out of hand, and while there are concerns over his putter at the moment, an extended break and return to one of his favorite courses is the perfect get-right remedy.

Russell Knox

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

Russell Knox has played a pretty good stretch of golf over his last few months, just not quite able to piece four rounds together. That’s perfectly fine in the FRL market though, and the Scot has always proven to fare well on positional, coastal tracks that favor the most precise ball strikers. He was No. 13 in my model this week, so happy to get some exposure here at lengthy odds.

SONY OPEN PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Corey Conners

My Bet: +130

Best Odds Still Available:

If you’ve ever watched Corey Conners hit a golf balls, you’d think it’s impossible for the ball to go anywhere but its target. It’s a smooth, simple, perfectly tempoed swing, and it’s exactly what’s needed for a course as tight as Waialae Country Club. When I look to the prop market, I’m looking for a safe floor, and that’s exactly the feeling I get from Corey Conners this week. He’s finished inside the top-20 in three consecutive appearances at this event, looked polished to kickstart the new year at Kapalua, and has never lost strokes putting on these greens at Waialae Country Club. Sign me up for the plus-odds here.

Top-20 Finish: Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +210

Best Odds Still Available:

Keith Mitchell is a great example of why Driving Accuracy is not the end-all-be-all when evaluating player fits for a short, positional course. Although one of the longest hitters in this field, he’s also No. 4 in SG: OTT on courses under 7,200 yards, proving he’s capable of strategically clubbing down at courses that cannot be overpowered. That formula’s worked well for Mitchell at Waialae CC over the years, ranking top-10 in terms of Course History with four top-25 finishes here over five career starts. His Georgia Bulldogs became National Champions the week of his T7 finish here in 2022, so a similar script may be in store once again.

Top-20 Finish: Ben Griffin

My Bet: +550

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s hard to feel confident in too many names in this odds range of the top-20 market, but Ben Griffin is onethat continues to feel undervalued by sportsbooks. I like what I’ve seen from him so far in his rookie campaign on other short Bermuda courses enough to take a chance on him in his Sony Open debut at these odds.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Russell Henley

I am so happy to be at the start of a new One And Done season, as failing to choose Scottie Scheffler or Cam Smith in any of their combined seven, massive purse victories dug me an insurmountable hole early on.

While the strategy was once to save the elite players for the Majors, THE PLAYERS, and the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the addition of Elevated events in 2023 makes it possible to play more elite players in high purse events. With that in mind, my strategy this year will be to avoid using any elite names in standard purse events, and instead look to the second tier of in-form players with solid course history.

To kick off the Sony Open, Russell Henley fits that role perfectly. He’s proven he can win here, he’s proven he can hang around here even if not closing, and he’s proven he can win recently, just two starts removed from his win at Mayakoba.

If not Henley, I would also consider Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, or Keith Mitchell to kick off the OAD season.

SONY OPEN: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s Sony Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 American Express Tournament Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

GOLF BETS: ODDS TO WIN THE SONY OPEN

Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to bet now.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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