2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: Sony Open In Hawaii Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

, , ,
Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
sony open bets

PGA TOUR golf continues with Waialae CC next on tap to host the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii this Thursday. Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, and Matt Fitzpatrick are the favorites among Sony Open bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA TOUR picks among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds across sports betting sites for each player.

It’s another week of primetime golf in paradise as the PGA TOUR heads to Honolulu, Hawaii, for the 2024 Sony Open, the first full-field event of the new year.

The Sony Open has rewarded precise ball strikers with proven past performance on other short and positional Bermuda-based venues. Those who excel in driving accuracy, mid-iron approach play, and reliable short game on Bermuda greens have demonstrated a sticky course history over the years at Waialae CC.

We’ll go through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2024 Sony Open.

Click on any of the Sony Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

New Underdog & PrizePicks Promo Codes: $100 Bonus For 2024

Click PLAY NOW and use promo code THELINES at signup to get your first deposit matched up to $100. Underdog & PrizePicks offer golf, football, basketball, baseball, and other daily contests.

Claim Your $100 Bonus at Underdog Fantasy Today
1
$100 bonus
On Deposit
First Deposit Match up to $100
PLUS a Free Pick’Em Special
Win Up to 100x Your Entry in a Single Night
Use Bonus Code: THELINES

HOW I BUILT MY Sony Open BETTING CARD

It’s a very intriguing betting board this week, as all three of the favorites enter as debutants, a rarity for such a longstanding event. Given how repeatable course history has shown to be, I’ve opted to fade the top of the board and build out a longer outright card from the second tier of the board.

In terms of unit allocations for my card, I’m rolling out a slightly different weekly structure from years past. From an outright perspective, I have typically stuck to an 8:1 ratio of 3U to pay 24U each week. This strategy was rolled out to hit six outrights over the full year to break even, or one outright every eight weeks.

Looking back on the numbers, I found that the breakeven point for a six-outright season is closer to 7:1 when considering an entire year on the PGA TOUR consisting of about 39 events. So, after a bit of math, I landed on a new weekly risk/reward of 3.5U to pay out 25U, with the same goal of hitting six outrights on the year to at least break even.

With all of that in mind, this is how my units are staked out for the 2024 Sony Open:

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
  • Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

Sony Open Bets: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

For PGA TOUR DFS picks and longshot bet considerations, check out my golf sleepers for the Sony Open.

Corey Conners

My Bet: +3300
Best Available Odds:

Say what you want about Corey Conners’ win equity; it’s hard to talk yourself out of betting on him when you look through the numbers. He has excelled in all phases at Waialae CC, finishing T12, T11, T12, and T3 over the last four years. Putting is always something to be concerned about with Conners; however, Waialae CC has proven to be an exception, as he’s gained on the greens in four of his five career appearances.

Finishing No. 7 in SG: T2G at The Sentry last week, Conners enters the Sony Open in great form yet again.

JT Poston

My Bet: +4000
Best Available Odds:

Sneakily one of the most consistent players on TOUR over the last five months, Poston’s game continues to trend upward. He’s now made 10 consecutive cuts with eight top-25s over that span and two top-5 finishes over his last three starts. Poston is best suited on courses where distance advantage is mitigated (evidenced by his wins at Sedgefield CC and TPC Deere Run). If his hot form continues, Waialae CC is an ideal setup to complement his strengths of mid-irons and Bermuda putting.

Brendon Todd

My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player of the week, I have high hopes for the new player-caddie duo of Paul Tesori and Brendon Todd. Tesori has enjoyed plenty of success at the Sony Open, helping Webb Simpson to seven career top-15 finishes. That experience should only help Todd breakthrough here with a course track record that is already good but not great.

One of the shortest yet most accurate players on TOUR, Waialae CC is precisely the set up a plodder like Todd should look forward to playing.

Justin Rose

My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:

The biggest question surrounding Justin Rose is why he hasn’t made the trip to Waialae CC more often. Rose has finished top 15 in each of his last three appearances at the Sony Open but will be making his first return since 2017, where he finished runner-up to Justin Thomas. Rose ranks No. 1 in my model this week, credited to his elite Approach, Around-The-Green, and Bermuda putting form. Fresh off a 12-under final round at Kapalua, this is a tremendous buy-low price for the accomplished veteran.

Matt Kuchar

My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:

I would not have thought twice if Matt Kuchar opened closer to 30-1 odds, considering he ranks No. 1 in course history at an event second only to The Masters in terms of predictive course history. And it’s not as if Kuchar’s been in a tailspin leading up to this week; he nearly won the Worldwide Technology Championship and recorded two top-10s over the fall swing. A similar trend to the rest of my betting card, I like Kuchar’s chances on a course that rewards accuracy and a short game around Bermuda greens.

Alex Noren

My Bet: +6500
Best Available Odds:

I rarely bet Alex Noren, but he’s drifted to odds that are too long for me to ignore, considering how close he’s come to winning in recent months. On comparable short courses over the fall swing, Noren placed T3 at the Shriners Open and T2 at the Bermuda Championship. Noren is average off the tee but elite from fairway to green, ranking top-30 in SG: APP and top-5 in both SG: ARG and SG: P (Bermuda). At 65-1, it’s worth a bet to chase the spike putting upside.

Lucas Glover

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

A severely discounted version of Corey Conners; I love Glover for all the same reasons. Glover ranks No. 1 in SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, and SG: OTT (<7,200-yard courses). Putting will always be a concern for Glover, but his charge at the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude leaves some new room for optimism. We watched Si Woo Kim capitalize on a new switch to the broomstick putter in last year, so why not a repeat from Glover in 2024?

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:

A bomber who continues to play his best golf on shorter, positional courses, Pendrith is an enigma from a stat profile standpoint. The simple takeaway for me on Pendrith, however, is that he knows how to intelligently navigate positional courses and play to his numbers on approach. With three top-15s over his last four starts, Pendrith has too much talent to ignore at odds this long.

SONY OPEN Bets: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Underdog Fantasy First-Round Golf Drafts Now Open

TheLines is partnering with Underdog Fantasy this season. Create a new account on the Underdog Fantasy app and sign up with promo code THELINES to get up to a $100 deposit match on your first deposit. Underdog snake drafts include PGA TOUR contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts.

Russell Henley

My Bet: +4000
Best Available Odds:
Underdog Round 1 Score: Higher or Lower Than 67.5 Strokes
Underdog Round 1 Birdies: Higher or Lower Than 4.5

As much as I wanted to find exposure to Henley from an Outright perspective, the prudent play would seem to be to capitalize on the early rounds before pressure sets in. Henley gets the favorable weather draw and knows how to generate ample birdie looks at Waialae CC.

Alex Noren

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

First-round leader races can often come down to a putting contest, so if that’s the case, I’ll stake one of the most reliable Bermuda putters in the field at discounted odds. With improved ball-striking form, I love Noren’s birdie-making upside this Thursday.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

I am almost embarrassed to say that without Aaron Rai, I would not have hit a single First Round Leader bet in 2023. I say almost because Rai’s three FRL cashes were still enough to register a breakeven year. Rai is a Round 1 Underdog Fantasy cheat code and a plug-and-play FRL weekly bet for me.

Zac Blair

My Bet: +16000
Best Available Odds:

Like the rest of my FRL bets, Zac Blair draws a favorable weather draw with a morning tee time before the afternoon winds pick up. He’s a reliable fairway finder with a spike-putting upside and a great track record at Waialae CC. Well worth a spin at 160-1.

SONY OPEN Bets: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Matt Kuchar > Akshay Bhatia

My Bet: -110

The new year of weekly matchup bets is off to a great start with Sungjae Im separating from Tyrrell Hatton at The Sentry. We’ll try to keep that momentum going into week two, chasing experience over youth.

Kuchar has been unflappable at Waialae CC, with the 2019 champion posting eight top-15 finishes over the last 10 years. He closed 2023 in as good form as ever, nearly winning the Worldwide Technologies Championship and posting two top-10s over his last three starts. There is more uncertainty behind Akshay as the second-year player is set to make his Sony Open debut. I have great expectations for Akshay in 2024, but I am giving the edge to Kuchar in this matchup, given the course fit and historical consistency here.

Top-20 Finish: Matt Kuchar

My Bet: +260
Best Available Odds:

Sportsbooks have not adjusted to the fact that Matt Kuchar is in great form coming to an event he’s displayed near-perfect history at, which also happens to be one of the most correlated courses for repeated results. So, I’ll continue to take a stance on this value in the placement market as well on a player who has cracked the top 20 in eight of his last 10 Sony Open starts.

Top-20 Finish: Joel Dahmen

My Bet: +650
Best Available Odds:

A bit further down the board, Joel Dahmen’s pedigree stands out relative to those priced around him in this range. He’s won on a coastal resort course in Puntacana, and is best suited on a course like Waialae that discounts distance advantage and rewards elite accuracy.

Top-20 Finish: Zac Blair

My Bet: +750
Best Available Odds:

Blair may seem like a longshot, but he has managed to hold his own consistently at the Sony Open, making the cut in all five career appearances, including a T3 and T6 finish. He’s worth taking a flier at odds this long based on the course history alone.

One And Done

My Pick: Matt Kuchar

And just like that, a new OAD season is finally underway! I, for one, could not be happier to start a clean slate in 2024 and look forward to breaking down OAD strategy here on a weekly basis.

OAD Strategy is pretty simple: Identify who the weekly chalk selections will be, and take a stance on when/how often you want to be contrarian. Getting the big-prize Signature Events and Majors correct is crucial, but it’s just as essential to use top players where they are most likely to contend.

Starting with a clean slate at the Sony Open, I expect Corey Conners, Russell Henley, and Tyrrell Hatton to command the most ownership. This is not a huge purse, so most will save Aberg and Fitzpatrick for later in the season. Amongst the favorites, Hatton is in the best current form and is a sensible fit for Waialae CC, even if he is making his debut. He does not have an obvious event to save for, so I expect him and Conners to draw the highest ownership.

I’ll save all the big names for later and go with a conservative name I can confidently do without for the rest of the year with no regrets. Kuchar brings a safety net of elite course history while falling deep enough down the board to remain a contrarian OAD play. If not Kuchar, I would consider Chris Kirk, Tyrell Hatton, or Brendon Todd this week.

Best of luck with all of your Sony Open bets!

Sony open: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Sony Open bets, and see you next Sunday for The AmEx preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

SONY OPEN ODDS

Compare odds before making your PGA TOUR golf bets this week by using the table below. Click the odds to bet now.

RELATED ARTICLES