Where are the Most Likely Group Stage Upsets at the World Cup?

The group stage of the 2026 World Cup is less than 48 hours away from kicking off. With the biggest field that the tournament has seen, spanning 48 teams in 12 groups, there is no shortage of quality matchups. We’ve got 72 matches to work with in the group stage over the next couple of weeks before we get to the elimination stage.

We’ve already talked about the top 10 matchups during the group stage that you shouldn’t miss. Meanwhile, here, let’s take a look at a few potential matchups that could be upset specials during the group stage. These matchups are in no particular order so read on for favorites that need to be wary of overconfidence.

Ecuador vs. Germany (Group E, 6/25):

Germany is a talented squad led by Kai Havertz and Leroy Sané offensively, along with the 40-year-old Manuel Neuer in net. Facing Ecuador, however, is not going to be a pushover for them. Ecuador suffered just two defeats in CONMEBOL qualifying. That was the fewest that any side suffered during qualification in that region. Those two losses came by 1-0 scores to a pair of powerhouse squads in Argentina and Brazil. If Germany gets even the slightest bit complacent, Ecuador can surprise them. Neuer had retired from international play only to return. He dealt with a calf injury that cost him some of the friendly matchups leading into group play.

Türkiye vs. USA (Group D, 6/26):

Team USA, being one of the three host countries for this year’s event, has home field advantage here. The problem for the Americans is two-fold. First, there is the continuity issue as injuries have kept their ideal lineup has been limited as far as playing together goes. Chris Richards just returned to practice Monday and depth in the defensive midfield is lacking for the Americans. Second, they’ve ‘ad breakdowns in the defensive end of the field. Arda Güler can make the Stars and Stripes pay and give his team the upper hand.

Japan vs. Netherlands (Group F, 6/14):

Japan is the best team that the continent of Asia has to offer. They come in with seven straight wins in international friendlies. That includes victories over powerhouses like Brazil (3-2) and England (1-0) in recent months. Losing Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino to injuries is rough. However, Japan can get players like Takefusa Kubo and Kaishu Sano to step up. They’re a disciplined, team-first squad. The Netherlands are always a tough matchup but they aren’t quite as dangerous as previous iterations. Falling to Algeria in a friendly last week may be a warning.

Ivory Coast vs. Germany (Group E, 6/20):

It might seem like we’re picking on Germany here but the fact is, they ended up in a tough group. It’s not as bad as their group of death in 2022, where they exited in the group stage after finishing behind Spain and Japan. The fact remains that they are relying on Neuer holding up at age 40, having been out of competition for nearly two years. That’s a big ask, especially on this big of a stage. Ivory Coast isn’t a team that many think of but they can make life difficult for an opposing side. They just beat France in a friendly last week. Sleep on them at your own risk.

Austria vs. Argentina (Group J, 6/22):

I know, everyone sees Argentina, thinks of Leo Messi and writes this one off as a win for la Albiceleste. After all, they’re the defending World Cup champs and one of the favorites in the tournament, right? Don’t sleep on Austria. This is a legitimate side with plenty of their own talent. Austria won their qualifying group for the World Cup. For good measure, they won their group for the UEFA European Championships in 2024. To do that, they had to dispatch the Netherlands, Poland and France. Tread lightly.

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