Sweden vs. Japan Odds, Picks & Predictions - Group F, 06/25
After all the hoopla and the run up, the 2026 World Cup continues their third round of group play games with a Group F matchup as Sweden takes on Japan Thursday night and we have you covered with our Sweden vs. Japan prediction. Sweden comes in off a 5-1 drubbing at the hands of the Netherlands in their second round of group play Saturday in their previous match. Japan downed Tunisia 4-0 in their second group play contest Saturday. This marks the first time that the two sides have met in World Cup play. Let’s break down this Sweden vs. Japan matchup.
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Sweden Shooting to Improve Round of 32 Chances
Sweden in the World Cup
In 2026, Sweden had their struggles in qualifying but made the field. They look to find a way into the round of 32 though they could use a little help. The Blågult make their 13th World Cup appearance here and their first since 2018. Sweden owns a record of 20 victories, 13 draws and 20 losses in World Cup play. The Blågult entered the World Cup 38th in the FIFA world rankings. Sweden stands third in Group F with one win, no draws and one loss. A win here would automatically send them to the round of 32. Meanwhile, a draw or loss makes it tougher.
Sweden Last Match
After dominating Tunisia in the opening round of group play, Sweden saw the tables turned in the second round. They were beaten soundly by the Netherlands. The Blågult played to a near even split in terms of possession in the match. In addition, Sweden owned an 8-7 advantage in shots on goal but the Netherlands had a 2.61 to 1.01 edge in terms of expected goals. Sweden gave up a goal in the fifth minute and never got even the rest of the way. The Blågult trailed 2-0 at the half as Oranje had the big offensive chances. Sweden did have a goal wiped out just before the half due to an offsides call.
In the second half, Sweden gave up a pair of goals early to trail 4-0 before they managed to get on the board. Anthony Elanga got the Blågult on the board in the 59th minute with Alexander Isak assisting on the goal. That was as close as Sweden got as the Netherlands closed the scoring in the 89th minute of play. Kristoffer Nordfeldt started the first two matches between the sticks for Sweden. He’s expected to get the call again here.
Japan Battling for Top Spot in Group F
Japan in the World Cup
The Samurai Blue make their eighth World Cup appearance here and their eighth consecutive as well. Japan owns a record of eight wins, 12 losses and seven draws in World Cup play entering this contest. The Samurai Blue are currently ranked 18th in the FIFA world rankings and hope to advance past the round of 16 for the first time. Japan enters this one with one win, one draw and no losses in group play. They are even with the Netherlands for the top spot in points and goal differential (+4) entering the third round.
Japan Last Match
Against Tunisia, Japan controlled the match and rolled to a one-sided victory. The Samurai Blue held better than a three-to-two advantage in terms of possession in the match. In addition, Japan owned a 5-0 advantage in shots on goal in the victory. Daichi Kamada gave the Samurai Blue the lead in the fourth minute as he flipped one into the net. That came off an assist from Keito Nakamura. Ayase Ueda made it 2-0 with a blast from 18 yards out in the 31st minute. That goal was assisted by Kou Itakura. Japan owned that 2-0 advantage at intermission.
In the second half, Japan kept churning offensively. Junya Ito made it a 3-0 advantage with his goal in the 69th minute off a nice feed from Ueda. After a series of substitutions, Ueda scored his second of the match in the 83rd minute on a header. Kaishu Sano earned the assist on that goal. That closed the scoring and sent the Samurai Blue to victory. Zion Suzuki, who didn’t face a shot in the win while earning the clean sheet, starts again between the sticks.
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days Sweden vs. Japan Prediction
Sweden earned a win in their group play opener as they beat Tunisia. The problem for the Blågult is that they struggled against the Netherlands. Japan drew with the Oranje in their first round group play matchup so this is a bad matchup for Sweden. The Samurai Blue can get by with a draw while Sweden needs a win here to automatically qualify. That puts Sweden in a dangerous spot because they have to open things up offensively. Meanwhile, that freewheeling style of play is right up Japan’s alley at this stage. Take the Samurai Blue to earn the victory here.
Our Prediction: Japan ML (DraftKings, -115)
One thing we’ve seen is that these teams are involved in high-scoring affairs. Sweden saw a combined six goals in both their win over Tunisia and their loss to the Netherlands. Meanwhile, the Samurai Blue had four total goals in their draw to the Netherlands. They followed up with another four total goals in the win over Tunisia. Look for more offensive fireworks between the teams here. Therefore, take the over in this match.
Our Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals (DraftKings, -130)
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