Paraguay vs. United States Odds, Picks & Predictions - Group D, 06/12

After all the hoopla and the run up, the 2026 World Cup continues with a Group D matchup as Paraguay takes on the United States Friday night and we have you covered with our Paraguay vs. United States prediction. Paraguay ended up their tuneup for the World Cup by blasting Nicaragua 4-0 in their previous match last Friday. The United States fell 2-1 to Germany in their final international friendly Saturday. In the only previous matchup in World Cup play, the United States won 3-0 in a Group 4 matchup on Ju’y 17, 1930. Let’s break down this Paraguay vs. United States matchup.

Don’t forget to check out all the World Cup odds as the tournament progresses!

Paraguay Seeking to Start World Cup on Right Foot

Paraguay won two of their three international friendlies since the start of 2026. La Albirroja beat Greece 1-0 before falling 2-1 to Morocco in late March. That was followed by their triumph over Nicaragua last week in their final tuneup match. Paraguay makes their ninth appearance in the World Cup but their first since 2010. They are ranked 41st in the FIFA world rankings entering World Cup action. La Albirroja owns a World Cup record of seven wins, 10 draws and 10 defeats as they start group play. Their top finish in World Cup action came in their last appearance in 2010 as they reached the quarterfinals.

Against Nicaragua in their final tuneup match, Paraguay controlled things most of the way and rolled to the victory. After a yellow card on Nicaragua, Alejandro Romero Gamarra converted a penalty kick in the 17th minute to give La Albirroja a 1-0 advantage. That was the only goal they would need, though they added on from there. Just before the half, Miguel Almirón made it a 2-0 game with his marker in the 42nd minute. Diego Gómez drew the assist on the marker. In the second half, Matías Galarza gave Paraguay a 3-0 advantage with his tally in the 62nd minute. Alexandro Maidana closed the scoring with a goal in the 67th minute. Mauricio Magalhães Prado drew the assist on that goal.

Gatito Fernández, the 38-year-old goalkeeper, projects between the sticks for this one. He has 13 appearances in World Cup qualifying but this marks his first World Cup start. Fernández owns a record of five wins, six draws and two losses in those contests. He has six clean sheets to his credit in those contests.

United States Hoping Home Crowd Carries Them to Victory

The United States were up and down during their international friendlies leading up to World Cup play. They fell to Belgium (5-2) and Portugal (2-0) in March, beat Senegal (3-2) then fell to Germany. As it stands, the United States make their 12th appearance all time in World Cup action here. It’s their second straight World Cup appearance. They’ve missed just once since 1990 with that coming in 2018. Entering the World Cup, the Stars and Stripes are 17th in the FIFA world rankings. All-time, they own a record of nine wins, eight draws and 20 losses in World Cup play.

In their final international friendly tune-up ahead of group p\ay, the United States fell 2-1 to Germany Saturday in Chicago. The Americans acquitted themselves well but a couple of major defensive lapses proved to be their undoing. A miscue almost immediately led to a goal by Kai Havertz for the Germans in the second minute of the match. That seemed to wake the US team up as they pressured Germany for an extended stretch. Antonee Robinson equalized the match with a stunning blast off a volley in the 37th minute of action. That marker sent the teams to the half even at one goal apiece.

In the second half, after manager Mauricio Pochettino chose to roll with the same lineup he had in the first half, another defensive gaffe put them behind. Leroy Sané finished a nifty passing p\ay in the 57th minute to give Germany the advantage. Down the stretch, substitutes Gio Reyna, Joe Scally and Brenden Aaronson all fired shots on target. Unfortunately, they were turned aside by Germany’s Oliver Baumann, sending them to defeat. Matt Freese, who has 15 appearances for the USMNT (nine friendlies, six Gold Cup) projects as the starter here. He owns a record of eight wins, two draws and five losses in those contests. Freese has just three clean sheets in those 15 matches. Check out the United States’ World Cup odds!

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Paraguay vs. United States Prediction

These teams met in a friendly back on November 15, 2025 with the United States earning a 2-1 victory. We’ve seen the USMNT struggle at times in the defensive end and that’s something that they have to resolve. Freese usually gives up at least one goal during most of his matches. That fact is backed up by the fact that he has a 20% clean sheet percentage in his international appearances. Paraguay has a veteran between the sticks. In addition, they are motivated to avenge that defeat back in November. In the end, I see this one ending up as a draw and both teams scoring.

Our Prediction: Draw (FanDuel, +240)

Our Prediction: Both Teams to Score (FanDuel, -102)

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