Morocco vs. Canada Odds, Picks & Predictions 1/16, July 4

After all the hoopla and the run up, the round of 16 of the knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup kicks off with a matchup as Morocco takes on Canada Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Morocco vs. Canada prediction. Morocco beat the Netherlands on penalties 3-2 after the teams drew 1-1 in extra time in their round of 32 match Monday in their previous match. Canada dropped South Africa 1-0 in their round of 32 match Sunday in their previous match.

These sides have met just once previously in World Cup play, a 2-1 win for Morocco in a Group F matchup on December 1, 2022. Don’t forget to check out all the World Cup odds as the tournament progresses!

Morocco Shooting for the Quarterfinals

Morocco in the World Cup

In 2026, Morocco makes their seventh World Cup appearance and their third consecutive showing in the field. The Atlas Lions own a record of eight wins, eight draws and 11 losses in World Cup action. Morocco enters this match ranked seventh in the latest FIFA rankings. The Atlas Lions finished group play with a record of two wins, one draw and no losses. In Group C, Morocco finished tied with Brazil for the top spot though Brazil took the top spot on goal differential.

Morocco Last Match

Morocco and the Netherlands couldn’t decide a winner in 120 minutes of action, so penalties determined the eventual winner. The Atlas Lions dominated possession by a 70% to 30% margin in the match. In addition, Morocco owned a 5-2 edge in shots on goal and a 1.38 to 0.24 advantage in terms of expected goals in the match. Both teams had chances in the first half to open the scoring only to see them go awry. As a result, the sides went to the half scoreless, setting the stage for the second half of play.

In the second half, Morocco hit the crossbar in the 52nd minute in what proved to be the best chance in the first 20-plus minutes. After the Netherlands took the lead in the 71st minute on a shot by Cody Gakpo, the Atlas Lions were in dire straits. Finally, in the 91st minute, Issa Diop tied the score with a header off a feed from Chemsdine Talbi. In extra time, Ismail Saibari had the best opportunity to score in the 98th minute only to be stopped by Bart Verbruggen. The match remained even at the end of extra time, sending things to penalties to decide the winner.

In the penalties, the teams each scored twice in their first four attempts. On the Netherlands’ fifth attempt, Yassine Bounou stopped Crysencio Summerville. Meanwhile, Saibari, who came up wanting in the 98th minute, scored to give Morocco the victory. Bounou makes his 11th career World Cup appearance here, posting a 4-4-2 mark. In addition, Bounou recorded four clean sheets.

Canada Hoping to Extend Successful Run

Canada In the World Cup

In 2026, Canada makes third appearance in the World Cup and their second straight. Les Rouges seek to build momentum in World Cup action. Their current record in the World Cup is two wins, one draw and seven losses. Canada enters the World Cup ranked 30th in the current FIFA rankings and hope to make a move with a decent showing. Les Rouges finished second in Group B after losing their group finale to Switzerland.

Canada Last Match

Against South Africa, Canada needed some late-match magic to avoid extra time and come away with the victory. Les Rouges lost possession in the match by a 58% to 42% margin in the contest. However, Canada held a 1.38 to 0.14 margin in expected goals while dominating shots on goal by a 7-1 margin. In the first half, it was Les Rouges with the best chances to score only to be thwarted. They had a pair of glorious chances in the 44th minute but came up empty. That sent the match to the half scoreless despite their best efforts.

The second half saw Canada with the best chances again. Jonathan David had a shot in the 79th minute that was stopped by Ronwen Williams. That was the best chance heading into stoppage time. In the 92nd minute, Stephen Eustáquio knocked down a loose ball in the box and blasted it past Williams for the first goal of the match. Shortly thereafter, time expired and Canada advanced to the round of 16 for the first time in history. Maxime Crépeau makes his fifth World Cup appearance here for Canada. Canada is without Ismael Kone, who was stretchered off in the second half against Qatar with a broken leg.

Morocco vs. Canada Predictions

Morocco vs. Canada Side Prediction

This one likely spells the end of the line for Canada. For a side that had no World Cup wins to their credit entering the 2026 tournament, having a pair of wins and advancing to the round of 16 has to be a win in itself. The problem for Les Rouges is that they are facing an experienced team that is battle-tested and laced with talent. Canada may feed off the crowd early but the Atlas Lions aren’t a side that folds under adversity. Just ask the Netherlands about that. Morocco is the better side and they are deeper. Look for the Atlas Lions to win in regulation.

Our Prediction: Morocco ML (DraftKings, -115)

Morocco vs. Canada Over/Under Prediction

This is going to be a test for Canada to try and crack the Morocco defense. We saw Les Rouges do damage against lesser foes but this is a team that made the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup. It might be a challenge for Canada. Morocco isn’t a team that overextends themselves on the attack but they do take advantage of mistakes. The Atlas Lions scored six times in group play while Canada put up eight goals in group. Each team scored just once in the round of 32 but this one sees more offense. Take the over in this match as Morocco likely prevails 2-1.

Our Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals (DraftKings, +125)

Morocco vs. Canada Player Prop

Canada’s success, or lack thereof, offensively, rests heavily on Jonathan David. A capable scorer that has delivered 123 goals in 273 domestic league matches, he’s been a factor here as well. David delivered a hat trick against Qatar in the group stage, marking his first three goals in World Cup play. Throw in nine goals and three assists in 18 World Cup qualifying matches and you can bank on him as a steady contributor. If Canada scores in this match, David is likely in the thick of it. Take him to score or earn an assist in this match.

Our Prediction: Jonathan David To Score or Assist (BetMGM, +205)

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