Iraq vs. Senegal Odds, Picks & Predictions - Group I, 06/26

After all the hoopla and the run up, the 2026 World Cup continues their third round of group play games with a Group I matchup as Iraq takes on Senegal Friday afternoon and we have you covered with our Iraq vs. Senegal prediction. Iraq was shut out 3-0 by France in their second group play match Monday in their previous contest. Senegal fell 3-2 to Norway in their second match in group play Monday in their previous match. This marks the first time that the two sides have met in World Cup play. Let’s break down this Iraq vs. Senegal matchup.

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Iraq Still Seeking Elusive First World Cup Victory

Iraq in the World Cup

In 2026, the Lions of Mesopotamia make their second all-time World Cup appearance here and their first since 1986. Iraq enters this contest seeking their first World Cup victory here. They dropped their five previous contests, getting outscored by a margin of 11-2, after falling in their first two matches of group play this time around. The Lions of Mesopotamia are fourth in Group I with a -6 goal differential so they need a win by a wide margin to have a shot at advancing. Iraq enters the World Cup ranked 57th in the FIFA world rankings.

Iraq Last Match

Against France, Iraq struggled against a superior squad and they were shut out in the match. The Lions of Mesopotamia lost the possession battle by a 56% to 44% margin in the contest. In addition, Iraq lost the shots on goal by a 5-0 margin and the expected goals by a 2.67 to 0.63 margin in the contest. The Lions of Mesopotamia held their own in the opening half of the match. They trailed by a 1-0 margin in the contest at the half after giving up a goal in the 14th minute.

The match was delayed for over an hour due to storms at the break. It seemed the delay seemed to sap what fight Iraq had, at least on the offensive end of the pitch. The Lions of Mesopotamia gave up two more goals while failing to register any kind of serious scoring threat. That sent them to defeat and with a -6 goal differential, it’s going to be tough sledding. Jalal Hassan projects for his second World Cup appearance in this contest for the Lions of Mesopotamia.

Senegal Trying to Claw Way into Round of 32

Senegal in the World Cup

In 2026, Senegal makes their fourth World Cup appearance this year and their third consecutive appearance. Their best run was that 2002 run when they reached the quarterfinals. Les Lions de la Teranga has an all-time record of five wins, three draws and six losses in World Cup play. Senegal entered the World Cup 15th in the FIFA world rankings. Les Lions de la Teranga are third in group I after their losses to France and Norway. They own a goal differential of -3, so a win could improve their chances as they would at least improve their differential.

Senegal Last Match

Against Norway, Senegal fell victim to another massive scoring threat, much as they did in their first group stage match. Les Lions de la Teranga owned a 58% to 42% advantage in time of possession in the match. In addition, Senegal fell by a 2.20 to 1.72 margin in expected goals and a 7-4 margin in shots on goal in the match. Senegal was outplayed in the opening half and was fortunate to trail just 1-0 at halftime. It nearly was a two-goal deficit but Norway hit the post during extra time, giving Senegal a break.

In the second half, Senegal gave up a goal early to trail 2-0 before getting things going offensively. Ismaïla Sarr got Les Lions de la Teranga on the board in the 53rd minute off an assist from Sadio Mané. That got Senegal with 2-1. They gave up a goal five minutes later to trail by a pair and that proved too much to overcome. Sarr scored his second of the match in the third minute of stoppage time to make it a 3-2 score. That was as close as Senegal got in the match as they went down in defeat. Edourard Mendy is questionable here. If he can’t go in goal, Mory Diaw gets the start here.

Iraq vs. Senegal Prediction

Neither side played overly well in their first two matches of group play. Senegal’s match with Norway was the lone one-goal match either side has on the ledger and that came on the strength of a goal in stoppage time. Senegal is the better side and they have the ability to score multiple goals. Iraq plays well in spurts but it’s a 90-minute match. The Lions of Mesopotamia haven’t shown an ability to accomplish that feat with any kind of regularity. Senegal has a slim chance of advancing but that entails them winning and pouring it on. Take them to prevail here.

Our Prediction: Senegal -1.5 (DraftKings, -150)

We haven’t seen Iraq do much in the way of offense in the first two matches. The Lions of Mesopotamia have just one goal to their credit in those matches. While Senegal isn’t great defensively, they should keep Iraq in check here. We saw Les Lions de la Teranga concede three goals in each of their two matches thus far. That won’t be the case here. Whether it’s Mendy or Diaw shouldn’t make a difference in this match. Look for Senegal to turn in a clean sheet and win to nil in this match.

Our Prediction: Senegal Win to Nil (DraftKings, -120)