England vs. Mexico Odds, Picks & Predictions 1/16, July 5
After all the hoopla and the run up, day 2 of the round of 16 of the knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup comes to a close with a matchup as England takes on Mexico Sunday night and we have you covered with our England vs. Mexico prediction. England defeated DR Congo 2-1 in their round of 32 matchup Wednesday in their previous match. Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0 in their round of 32 clash in their previous match Tuesday to advance. Let’s break down this England vs. Mexico matchup.
The two sides have met in World Cup action just once previously, with England taking a 2-0 victory in a Group 1 matchup on July 16, 1966. Don’t forget to check out all the World Cup odds as the tournament progresses!
England Hoping Past History Is Precursor to Success
England in the World Cup
In 2026, England logs their 17th World Cup appearance and their eighth straight as they take the pitch here. They last missed the World Cup back in 1994. The Three Lions own a record of 35 wins, 23 draws and 20 losses in World Cup play entering this contest. England went into the World Cup ranked fourth in the FIFA world rankings. The Three Lions finished with seven points and atop Group L to advance to the knockout stages of the tournament.
England Last Match
Against DR Congo, England found themselves down early and they had to rally late to earn the victory. The Three Lions owned a 60% to 40% advantage in terms of possession in the match. In addition, England had a 2.16 to 0.77 margin in terms of expexted goals and a 7-2 advantage in shots on goal in the match. In the first half, England gave up the first goal of the match in the seventh minute. England had a few good chances after the hydration break but came up empty. That left the Three Lions down 1-0 at intermission as a result.
Jude Bellingham had another great chance in the 53rd minute but came up empty so England still trailed 1-0. Finally, Harry Kane scored the tying goal in the 75th minute on a header off an assist from Anthony Gordon. England kept the pressure up and it paid dividends. Kane tallied his second of the match in the 86th minute off an assist from Gordon to give England the lead. The Three Lions held DR Congo at bay the rest of the way to earn the victory. Jordan Pickford projects for his 17th start in World Cup play here. He owns a record of 10 wins, two draws and four losses in those contests. In addition, Pickford has five clean sheets in those outings. Make sure you keep track of England’s World Cup odds throughout the knockout rounds.
Mexico Shooting to Reach the Quarterfinals
Mexico in the World Cup
In 2026, Mexico made their 19th appearance in the World Cup. This marks their ninth consecutive appearance in the World Cup dating back to 1994. They have not advanced beyond the quarterfinals in their history. Mexico’s all-time record in World Cup action is 21 wins, 15 draws and 28 losses. On the plus side, the two previous times that El Tri was a host country, they reached the quarterfinals. Mexico enters the World Cup ranked 15th in the FIFA rankings. El Tri finished group play with three wins, no draws and no losses to finish atop Group A.
Mexico Last Match
Against Ecuador, Mexico took advantage of feeding off the home crowd and it led them to a victory. El Tri was beaten by a 57% to 43% margin in terms of possession in the match. In addition, Mexico dominated shots on goal by a 3-1 margin while winning the expected goals by a 1.05 to 0.75 edge in the contest. El Tri caught a break when Ecuador hit the post in the 18th minute. Shortly after, Julián Quiñones gave Mexico a 1-0 lead in the 22nd minute off an assist from Roberto Alvarado. Raúl Jiménez made it a 2-0 score in the 31st minute off an assist from Quiñones. Mexico maintained that 2-0 advantage at the half as they held Ecuador at bay.
In the second half, Mexico played conservative with a two-goal lead. They had a chance to make it a 3-0 score in the 67th minute but César Montes was stopped. Orbelín Pineda narrowly missed scoring for Mexico in the 92nd minute. Piero Hincapié received a red card in the 95th minute for Ecuador, leaving them with 10 men down the stretch. Mexico went on to the win as they have yet to concede a goal in the World Cup. Raúl Rangel makes his fifth World Cup appearance here. He turned in clean sheets in each of his first four appearances. You can check out Mexico’s World Cup odds ahead of this match.
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England vs. Mexico Side Prediction
When you look at the teams, England is the better side of the two and they’re looking to repeat history. The Three Lions’ lone World Cup win came in 1966 when they took down Mexico along the way. England’s problem here is the fact that they’re playing one of the host countries in their own building so to speak. Estadio Azteca opened in 1966 and Mexico simply doesn’t lose there. El Tri has a staggering mark of 70 wins, 17 draws and just two losses there. Their last defeat came in 2013 to the United States. Altitude, coupled with the humidity, may sap some of England’s players. Look for Mexico to find a way to emerge with the win here, much to the chagrin of Tuchel and his squad.
Our Prediction: Mexico to Advance (FanDuel, +116)
England vs. Mexico Over/Under Prediction
Mexico hasn’t conceded a goal in four matches in this World Cup but they face a team that is dangerous. England is averaging 2.13 expected goals per match, which puts them sixth overall in the field and fourth among remaining squads. The Three Lions are going to push with Kane, Bellingham and Bukayo Saka among others. Mexico is freewheeling more since they’ve injected Gilberto Mora into the midfield. El Tri continues to be aggressive to try and wear England down. This match ends up as a 2-1 type of match, pushing over the total.
Our Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals (FanDuel, +140)
England vs. Mexico Player Prop
Harry Kane is a scoring threat for England no matter who the opponent is in this tournament. He has five goals in the four World Cup matches for the Three Lions this year. In 118 career appearances for the national team, Kane has scored 84 goals. In addition, he has 13 goals and three assists in 15 World Cup appearances. He’s as dangerous a scoring threat as Erling Haaland is for Norway, Messi is for Argentina or Mbappé is for France. Look for Kane to add another goal to his ledger by tallying here.
Our Prediction: Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer (DraftKings +180)
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