Australia vs. Paraguay Odds, Picks & Predictions - Group D, 06/25

After all the hoopla and the run up, the 2026 World Cup continues their third round of group play games with a Group D matchup as Australia takes on Paraguay Thursday night and we have you covered with our Australia vs. United States prediction. It’s a battle for the top spot in Group D. Australia fell 2-0 to the United States in their second group play matchup Friday afternoon in their previous matchup. Paraguay downed Türkiye 1-0 in their second group play clash in their previous match Friday. This marks the first time that the two sides have met in World Cup play. Let’s break down this Australia vs. Paraguay matchup.

Don’t forget to check out all the World Cup odds as the tournament progresses!

Australia Trying to Rebound From Loss

Australia in World Cup Play

In 2026, Australia qualified for their seventh World Cup appearance overall and their sixth consecutive showing. The Socceroos own an all-time World Cup record of five victories, four draws and 13 losses. Australia entered the World Cup ranked 27th in the FIFA world rankings. They opened group play with a win over Türkiye before falling to the United States. The Socceroos would clinch a spot in the round of 32 with a win or draw here.

Australia Last Match

Against the United States, Australia was contained offensively and that proved to be their undoing in the match. The Socceroos lost the possession battle by more than a three-to-two margin in the match. In addition, Australia lost the expected goals by a 1.08 to 0.35 margin in a match where both sides had two shots on goal. The Socceroos suffered a self-inflicted wound with an own goal in the 11th minute. Cameron Burgess knocked the ball into his own net. Late in the first half, Australia surrendered a second goal to trail by a brace at the half.

In the second half, Australia clamped down on the Stars and Stripes, allowing just one shot on goal. The problem for the Socceroos is that they were unable to generate any serious offensive threats of their own. Therefore, they ended up with the loss. Patrick Beach, who was stellar in posting a clean sheet against Türkiye, projects between the sticks again here.

Paraguay Shooting to Reach Round of 32

Paraguay in the World Cup

In 2026, Paraguay makes their ninth appearance in the World Cup but their first since 2010. They are ranked 41st in the FIFA world rankings entering World Cup action. La Albirroja owns a World Cup record of eight wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats as they start group play. Their top finish in World Cup action came in their last appearance in 2010 as they reached the quarterfinals. Paraguay opened group play getting hammered 4-1 by the United States before besting Türkiye. They have one win, no draws and one loss in group play. They are tied with Australia for second in the group but the Socceroos own a better goal differential.

Paraguay Last Match

Against Türkiye, Paraguay was dominated statistically yet emerged with the victory. La Albirroja lost possession by nearly a four-to-one margin in the match. In addition, they lost shots on goal by a 5-2 margin. They gave up 2.17 expected goals while putting up just 0.32 expected goals of their own in the match. Matías Galarza gave Paraguay an early lead as he scored in the second minute of the match. Julio Enciso drew the assist on the goal.

La Albirroja caught a break as Türkiye’s Mert Müldür had a header off a free kick that hit the crossbar and the post before staying out. That came in the 33rd minute and left Paraguay up 1-0 at the half. In extra time, Miguel Almirón earned a red card for covering his mouth while talking with officials. That left Paraguay with 10 men the entire second half. Despite a relentless attack by Türkiye, Paraguay keeper Orlando Gill kept his team in front to earn the win. Look for him between the sticks again here.

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Australia vs. Paraguay Prediction

This one could see both teams wind up in the round of 32 regardless of the result. With that said, neither side is going to try and leave it to chance if they can help it. Paraguay is without Almiron because of his red card. La Albirroja might also be missing Ramon Sosa and Gustavo Caballero, who are both doubtful. The Socceroos could be missing Matthew Leckie, who is questionable here. Both sides play close to the vest in this one because one mistake may make the difference. Based on that, play the draw in this contest.

Our Prediction: Draw (DraftKings, +125)

As mentioned above, these two sides are likely to play things close to the vest. Neither side set the world on fire offensively in their first two matches. The Socceroos have a total of two goals on the books in their first two matches. Meanwhile, Paraguay is in a similar situation with two goals to their credit in their first two group matches. Expecting much more here is a foolhardy play. This one is likely a 1-1 draw, so taking the over 1.5 goals is a better value than under 2.5 here.

Our Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals (FanDuel, -144)