FIFA World Cup Odds & Favorites: Spain Leads Crowded Field

FIFA World Cup Archives |
Written By Chris Kubala | Published at June 4, 2026
FIFA legend Bastian Schweinsteiger unveils the trophy with Bergen County Executive James Tedesco, III during The FIFA World Cup™ Trophy Tour, sponsored by Coca Cola, at the American Dream Mall on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, in East Rutherford. Schweinsteiger was part of Germany’s World Cup victory in 2014.

We’re just over a week away from the start of the 2026 World Cup, which is taking place in North America for the first time since 1994. There are 48 teams in in the field, though realistically you can likely discount 75% of them from winning the tournament. Some teams in the expanded field are in the likely “happy to be here” state of mind. We’ll break it all down for you below, so read on to get an idea of where your favorite side shows up in the odds.

The Favorites

This sextet of sides are the most likely to be battling in the final match in an effort to win the title. In the most recent FIFA rankings, France jumped two spots from third to first based on the strength of a 3-1 win over Colombia in a friendly. Led by Kylian Mbappe, they look to earn their second World Cup in the last three iterations. They won in 2018 and were runner-up in 2022. Spain fell from 1st to 2nd after a scoreless draw with Egypt. Still, a team with Lamine Yamal and David Raya between the sticks can’t be discounted. Yamal may miss part or all of the group stage after partially tearing his hamstring back in April.

England (fourth) boasts Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka. They reached the quarterfinals in 2022. Brazil (sixth) has Neymar, Vinicius Junior, Igor Thiago, Raphinha and Fabinho leading the way. They look to rebound after back-to-back runs ended in the quarterfinals. Neymar is dealing  with a calf injury that could cost him some action in group play. Portugal (fifth)  brings back Cristiano Ronaldo of course, along with Gonçalo Ramos and João Félix, to do damage on the offensive end. Argentina (third) brings Lionel Messi back for what is likely his final World Cup run. He’ll be bolstered by the presence of Nico Paz, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez.

For the record, Spain (-450 in Group H), France (-220 in Group I), England (-325 in Group L), Brazil (-350 in Group C), Portugal (-220 in Group K) and Argentina (-280 in Group J) are each prohibitive favorites in their respective groups.

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The Fringe Contenders

These four teams are the next best options but they’ll need a few breaks to go their way to have success. Germany (10th) is anchored by Kai Havertz up front along with a pair of extremely experienced goalkeepers. Manuel Neuer (40) and Oliver Baumann (36) have occupied the net for Germany forever it seems. They won’t be intimidated by the lights and pressure. The Netherlands (eighth) look to regroup after sputtering in recent international friendlies. They drew Ecuador back on March 31 and fell 1-0 to Algeria Wednesday. Donyell Malin and Tijjani Reijnders are at the forefront of the Dutch attack.

Belgium (ninth) enters their final international friendly with momentum. After drubbing the USA 5-2 and drawing Mexico 1-1 back in March, Belgium blanked Croatia 2-0 Tuesday. Led by Romelo Lukaku and Leandro Trossard, they look to avenge a group stage elimination in the 2022 World Cup. Norway (31st) is the big outlier In the FIFA rankings. Stuck in Group I with the French, they’re likely fighting to earn the second spot and a spot in the round of 32.  Still, any team with Erling Haaland is a force to be reckoned with.

As it stands, Germany (-300 in Group E), the Netherlands (-130 in Group F) and Belgium (-240 in Group G) are each favored

The Long Shots

This group is full of sides that could make a run to the quarterfinals but that may be their respective ceilings. Of these 10 teams, only the USA (-130 in Group D),  Mexico (-140 in Group A) and Switzerland (-130 in Group B) are favored to win their respective groups.

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Happy to Be Here

This group is a collection of sides that are glad to have made the field. By default, some of them will make the round of 32 as they’ll finish second or potentially be one of the higher ranked third-place sides in a Group. Expecting them to go any further than that is likely the equivalent of fools’ gold.

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